Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
AMLO is leaving the incoming President with a poisoned apple of government—a tangled poisoned apple. The apple consists of multiple layers of interrelated crises and knots of conflict that Sheinbaum will face from the beginning of her administration.
The intertwined crises refer to the crisis of violence and out-of-control organized crime, which, in turn, is multiplied by the crisis created by the dismemberment of the Judiciary, which reduces the capacity of the Mexican State to effectively confront the cartels, coupled with the virtual non-existence of an Attorney General’s Office.
These crises are intermingled with AMLO’s open confrontation with the U.S. government, accusing it of being responsible for the violence and drug trafficking crisis in the country. The “pause” in the relationship with the United States is deepened by accusations that aggravate the country’s general economic situation: capital flight, worrisome exchange rate fluctuations, withdrawal of foreign capital investments, accelerated economic slowdown, lower tax collection, threats to the country’s sovereign debt rating, and growing social program commitments that put strong pressure on public spending.
What should have been a smooth and uneventful transition has turned into a swarm of interrelated conflicts that continue to grow in number and aggressiveness. Today, there is talk of tensions within the official party in view of the accelerated approval of legislative measures that will probably represent strong headaches and continued social conflicts for the incoming government. There are serious doubts in that party about the convenience, for the incoming government, of having offered a “gift” to AMLO with the approval of his legislative proposals.
AMLO’s most recent proposal, which allows the National Investigation Center (CNI) personnel to be armed, presages a return to the era of the political police of the Federal Security Directorate (DFS). It was a body that operated to control dissidents, repress social movements, torture those who rose up against the regime, and was licensed to kill. AMLO’s proposed measure is congruent with his militaristic and human rights-violating vision for the future governance of Mexico.
But his militaristic vision is not against organized crime or drug trafficking. No. His vision is against political dissidents to the Morenista regime that is being installed in the country. AMLO’s idea is that the government requires, as a priority, repressive instruments to stop and decimate the political opposition. He does not care that criminals are on the loose. In his mind and opinion, the real criminals are those who disagree with him and his way of exercising power. That is why he wants to arm the CNI agents.
In fact, his demeanor, his approach to the supposed “handover” of presidential command, and his body language reflect, as a whole, that he is not contemplating a real handover of power. He is thinking of a formal and institutional event of handing over the presidential baton, but where he will continue to direct, like Orwell’s Big Brother, the significant decisions and destinies of the nation. Obviously, he will share power with the new president through his son, who is embedded in the leadership of the official party. That son will be the one who will share presidential decision-making with Sheinbaum until 2030 when he aspires to become the new President of Mexico. At the same time, they will watch that the new President not only does not deviate from the route they have traced but also resists pressures to investigate AMLO, his children, and other family members or cronies involved in wrongdoing.
Sheinbaum has shown herself to be a collaborator in the cover-up task. SEGALMEX, undoubtedly the most publicly known case of corruption, will disappear. By decreeing the disappearance of that company and creating another in its place with the same functions, she seeks to throw off any possible investigation into corruption. Another institution in a similar situation, INSABI, which failed in its mission to provide quality medical care to all Mexicans after spending billions of pesos in an opaque manner, also “disappeared” to avoid investigations related to the grand corruption that was the hallmark of that failed venture.
Probably the most revealing case of the cover-up conspiracy between the outgoing and the incoming government is the issue of public security, especially the sloppy and slippery handling of the violence in Sinaloa. Here, the federal government, AMLO, the Armed Forces, the governor, and the future President have faced a critical decision. They have decided to share the responsibility of having accepted a de facto alliance with the Pacific Cartel (or Sinaloa, if you prefer) to finance campaigns, share candidacies, and, in essence, govern together.
But they have gone a step further. They have agreed with Mayo Zambada in his confrontation with the Chapitos, which favors one side in the dispute for territorial control of drug trafficking, from Sinaloa to the northern border. Undoubtedly, part of this support is based on the hope that El Mayo will not rat out AMLO and his followers in the relationship they have maintained with the drug traffickers. But his is a lost cause.
Because the revelation about AMLO’s relationship with the narco has been made, it is now in Biden’s hands to decide when and how it will be disclosed. Here, political timing counts. What serves Kamala best in her fight against Trump? In a campaign speech, Kamala mentioned how she fought the Sinaloa Cartel (that’s right, she said it by name) when she was California’s State Attorney. “Sinaloa” is in the spotlight, and so is AMLO.
President López Obrador accuses the U.S. government of having carried out the Mayo Zambada kidnapping operation without informing Mexican authorities of the fact, either before or after. In fact, AMLO still does not know for sure how things happened. He tries to piece together bits and pieces of information but obviously does not have much clarity. He assumes it was the United States, and in line with his idea, he accuses that country of responsibility for the violence in the state. What is not reported is something about the collaboration of some Mexican weapons with the U.S. in the action. Will that have something to do with the fact that Morena, in the Chamber of Deputies, made it clear that the National Guard expressly excludes members of the Navy from its ranks?
AMLO is attacking the United States using his traditional method of operation: he always raises the stakes, and attack is the best defense. But, defense of whom or of what? It is not the same as a political defense where the terrain of debate, the media, and the capacity to intimidate are controlled. But what if the accusations are legal with reliable evidence, through international jurisdictional instruments, and if he no longer enjoys immunity because he is just another citizen? In that case, outbursts and threats are of no use at all.
This whole scenario involves the new President. She has been complacent with AMLO, even reasoning, with strong cantinfleo (babbling), that the Armed Forces should not act against organized crime in Sinaloa as the best method to “defend the people”.
Finally, the conclusion is inevitable. Yes, AMLO is leaving President Sheinbaum a poisoned apple, and it seems that she will have to swallow it all obediently.
It seems.
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