Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The Trump administration pushed forward with its agenda to resolve the war in Ukraine. It has done so, it must be said, with his characteristic bustle and clumsiness. He promised to resolve the conflict during the election campaign before arriving at the White House. That prognosis failed.
In his usual style, he picked up the phone and spoke to Putin for over an hour and a half. What they agreed to is unknown, but it is speculated that it revolved around a negotiation that would save Putin’s face without defeating Ukraine and allow for a “lasting peace.”
Is it possible to please both sides, after the Russian invasion caused the death in Ukraine of around a million people in total, including soldiers and civilians, the kidnapping by the Russians of more than 20,000 Ukrainian children taken to their territory to be indoctrinated as “Russians” and the destruction of the infrastructure of the attacked nation?
For the time being, achieving a “lasting peace” will not be possible if all parties are not effectively involved in the negotiation.
Trump’s first mistake was trying to reach an agreement with Putin, regardless of Ukraine. His famous phone call may have led to a deal between the two leaders but also aroused suspicion and doubt among the excluded Ukrainians and all European nations. The last thing Europeans want is an angry Putin without the certainty that the United States will not stop his military advance toward other Baltic and Central European nations.
Another mistake occurred when Vice President Vance met with the leaders of European nations in Munich and insulted all those present, accusing them of abandoning democratic principles and allowing themselves to be infected by a perverse immigrant population. He also met with the candidate of the German far right, an opponent of the German government, apparently to give a slap in the face to the country’s ruling coalition, which is otherwise strategic in the concert of European nations. The repudiation of Vance was unanimous.
The US Secretary of Defense, speaking to NATO members, suggested that Ukraine had to cede parts of its national territory to Russia to end the war. He also added that he considered Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO unlikely. His proposal shocked the entire European military audience, as Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO is being considered. The US proposal was considered “an unconditional surrender” to Putin with nothing in return. A frank blunder by the Trump administration, what the US Secretary of Defense said is the third mistake made by the United States in the face of the war in Ukraine.
The US Secretary of the Treasury, on a visit to Kyiv, announced that the protective shield to ensure a peaceful future in Ukraine would consist of massive US investments in the “rare pales of the earth of that country, in addition to participation in the purchase and administration of state-owned companies, such as those in the energy and agro-export sectors”. In other words, the United States sees massive investment by US companies in Ukraine as a guarantee that Russia will abandon its territorial aspirations in that country. Trump considers US investment to be more powerful than NATO’s military force. No one in Ukraine considers this naive US view of Putin, Russian military force, and NATO’s role to be realistic.
The Treasury Secretary’s approach is seen as another American mistake.
Ukraine, the European Union, and NATO swiftly responded to four serious mistakes the US government made regarding the situation in Ukraine.
Zelensky, President of Ukraine, attended the Munich Security Meeting to reject negotiations that did not involve his country and government. He made it clear that the Ukrainian people are firm in their refusal to give in to a fascist government like the one Putin wants for Ukraine. The experience of the Russian occupation of Ukrainian provinces has left its mark: repression, colonization, human rights violations, and concentration camps. What do they expect from Putin? Zelensky asked them.
He raised the urgency of including Ukraine in NATO and preparing for the specter of the United States preparing to abandon its European allies by renouncing its NATO membership. He urged European countries to create a European army and warned that the danger of Russian troops invading certain countries was possible.
He reaffirmed Ukraine’s adherence to the democratic and liberal principles of the European Union. With his statement, Zelensky elicited a standing ovation from those attending the security meeting in Munich. He expressed the feelings of most of the organization’s members, in contrast to the coldness with which Trump’s representatives were received.
In the corridors of Munich today, the memory of Munich 1938 was in the air. In 1938, Britain’s Neville Chamberlain signed an agreement with Hitler, hoping to appease the Germans. All Chamberlain achieved was to give Hitler more time to enlist his troops for World War II. A piece of Czechoslovakia was the sacrificial offering at this event.
Trump intends to do the same: offer militarist and dictator Putin a piece of Ukraine to appease his appetite. Zelensky responds that this will simply whet his appetite for more territorial conquests. He has his eyes on Poland and the Baltic States for now.
In another historical parallel, Kennedy and Khrushchev settled the Cuban missile crisis without including Cuba in the agreement. The Soviet Union withdrew its missiles from Cuba, and the United States withdrew its rockets from Turkey. Despite Castro’s anger at having been ignored, this incident allowed Cuba to become an important piece in the global geopolitical chessboard, which Fidel managed very intelligently to achieve his own objectives. However, the Cuban project ended when the Soviet Union disappeared.
Zelensky has the opportunity to become an accredited and legitimate spokesperson for the European Union and NATO, even without being an official member of those organizations. It is a great irony of the moment: Ukraine can beat Trump and Putin at their own game if it moves its pieces with cunning and intelligence in its perilous chess game. It will have to be very firm, knowing that it has the support of the Ukrainian people, who reject the hegemonic pretensions of Putin and Russia. Europe is aware of Trump’s perverse game, who thinks that money solves everything, and Putin’s intentions, who lies to buy more time, as Hitler did in Munich in that fateful and ill-fated 1938.
If it loses territory in any final agreement, Ukraine will have to ensure it has a strong military position of its own and not depend on US investments as a “protective shield”. And it will have to be able to join the international coalition that best suits its national interests.
@rpascoep
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