Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
President López Obrador evaluates the convenience of Mexico’s exiting from the USMCA to consolidate his sovereignty dream over the energy sector and exclude the world from the “treasure”. He thinks it will be his step into history and will allow him to consolidate his movement as hegemonic in the national political scene for generations to come. John Kerry’s visit was explicit. The White House told AMLO that Mexico has to decide what it will be about it.
An action of this magnitude, as the President knows, would imply a significant disruption to the national economy, as there would be, without a doubt, a massive outflow of investments from the United States and Canada, among others, both from companies and investment funds in Mexican government bonds. For this reason, it is looking for new allies on the world horizon. The two visible bidders would be China and Russia.
Having fallen in love with the Cuban model, President López Obrador could be contemplating some kind of arrangement with the Putin government similar to the one Fidel Castro had with the Soviet leaders. Hence Mexico’s extreme caution in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. And I suspect that, should it escalate into an armed conflict, Mexico will play the card of the supposedly historic “non-intervention in the internal affairs of nations is peace”. Putin’s “casual” comments about Mexico and the establishment of Russian weapons in our territory come from irresponsible suggestions made by officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs visiting Moscow and by “private presidential representatives” while trying to trade the presidential plane for Russian helicopters. The excessive Mexican gratitude for the Sputnik vaccines has a high symbolic value.
It is noteworthy that, at a time of crisis between Russia and the West, both the Brazilian and Argentinean Presidents traveled to Moscow to meet with Putin. Does López Obrador have a trip to Russia in mind?
The inclusion of Chinese companies in the emblematic works of the government of the 4T makes us see the turn of the gaze towards the Asian giant. And even more: the virtual presence and greeting of Chinese President Xi Jinping at the closing of the CELAC meeting, as a result of a Mexican decision and initiative, would seem to herald the beginning of a new era in the relationship between Mexico and the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean with that Asian country. This, even though there are no indications that the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean, necessarily agree with Mexico and Obrador’s vision. The lack of consensus is so real that in the CELAC meeting itself, the basic proposal that López Obrador wanted to move forward (to leave the OAS and form a new organization totally “ours”) was not even raised because it was going to be rejected by most of the attending countries.
The statements made by President López Obrador, stating that Mexico is not a protectorate of anyone, referring to the United States, is relevant to indicate the state of mind of the President. If to this is added the reiteration of the complaint about the financing of civil society organizations opposed to the government (ignoring that USAID funds much more to official organizations, including the Armed Forces, than to the Mexican civil society), then the Mexican is behaving like a man possessed by an inner rage out of control.
In fact, some reports indicate that the Mexican President believes that U.S. officials may be behind the information provided to the media about the presence of the President’s eldest son in Houston. Whether true or not, the data fuels the conflict between the countries.
And what can we say about the “timely” (days before the Super Bowl) halt to the export of Mexican avocados to the neighboring country? It was a simple detail to illustrate how integrated the value chains between the two countries are. It is an example that is multiplied thousand times over. Are the Russians or the Chinese so addicted to the Michoacan avocado? Because, given López Obrador’s anti-American policies and statements, this may be his dream as an option to be the great port of disembarkation for the Mexican economy. Something like the Plan B of the 4T for Mexico. A great economic agreement with one, or both, Central and Far East Asian countries.
What about the millions of compatriots living in the United States who, as a product of their work, send remittances to their families with an incalculably higher value than the cash handouts distributed by López Obrador? Will they be lost or subject to control conditions, as happens with Cubans’ remittances in the United States sent to their families on the Island? The fact is that culturally, Mexico and the United States are intimately united in economy, society, and politics. To pretend to ignore that fact when trying to establish a new model is unfeasible, with partners on the other side of the world. And it is especially unfeasible considering that López Obrador, who promised a new economic and social model, has shown his ineffectiveness and ignorance when it comes to its implementation. Hence, Mexico finds itself in the worst of all worlds, with a president who assures that he will innovate and, at the drop of a hat, proposes recipes that were valid 50 years ago but are unworkable for today’s world. There is a crisis in everything: health, economy, criminality. On top of that, he poisons the national soul with polarization and hatred.
The Mexican President should seriously meditate on his next steps. And he will have to begin to be more careful with his expressions, trying to behave like a President instead of as a tavern thug with no responsibilities before anyone. Not everything has to do with him and his family. The expectations and future projects of the majority of the country’s citizens are at stake.
If he is going to propose to the country to get out of the USMCA, let him say so and convince. And suppose he does not plan to do so. In that case, he should dedicate himself to rebuilding the strategic relationship with our two partners because the country’s future and, incidentally, his own, is at stake in that relationship.
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