Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
One of President-elect Trump’s first international calls, if not the first, was with President Zelensky of Ukraine. What is interesting is that he made the call accompanied by Elon Musk, owner of, among other companies, Starlink, a satellite internet provider.
Starlink plays a crucial role in the war between Ukraine and Russia. It was the first war in human history where the Internet played a central role in the military confrontation between two armies. Soldiers on the front lines use the internet day and night to monitor the enemy, fly drones over the battlefield to learn about their movements, and direct drone and missile strikes against the opposing army’s positions. The internet is also a privileged instrument for espionage and interference with enemy attacks. The Ukrainians even use the Internet to direct their unmanned waterborne suicide drones against Russian naval positions in Sevastopol, Crimea.
Starlink makes the difference between winning and losing the war for Ukraine. So much so that even the Ukrainians accused Musk of cutting off their access to Starlink when they were preparing an attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea; he claimed he did it to avoid a nuclear war. Around this time, Musk confessed that he regularly spoke with Putin, implying that he was an exponent of a proposal to end the war.
Musk laid out his proposal to end the war in Ukraine. It is very “simple”: that Ukraine agrees to cede Crimea to Russia and that the eastern Ukrainian provinces claimed by Putin vote in a plebiscite to decide which country they want to integrate with – Russia or Ukraine.
Zelensky has repeatedly said, publicly and privately, that Ukraine demands the complete withdrawal of the Russian army from all Ukrainian territories (from Crimea and eastern Ukrainian provinces) in order to have a dialogue on the conditions for a lasting peace between the two nations. Obviously, there is zero coincidence between Musk’s proposal and Zelensky’s.
Trump, for his part, made a campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine “in one day” but without giving details on how he intended to achieve it. However, those close to Trump have suggested his ideas align with Musk’s. For the time being, there remains the legacy of Trump’s first presidency for his fraternity and admiration for Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, two allies in the war against Ukraine. It is hard to think that Trump would make a bet against the two rulers he admires.
The fact that he called Zelensky accompanied by Musk reveals a lot. Although spokesmen for the Ukrainian presidential palace said that Zelensky was “very satisfied and encouraged” by the results of the talks, it is almost impossible not to conclude that the conversation with Trump and Musk was something close to an ambush. Musk may even be Trump’s “useful fool” in his negotiations with Ukraine. The President-elect does not have to threaten to withdraw U.S. military support for the Ukrainian military. He can simply delay some deliveries of military equipment and spare parts. But that’s where Musk enters the negotiation. He can threaten to cut off the Ukrainian connection to Starlink, critically weakening the Ukrainian military and its entire intelligence apparatus. In some ways, the Ukrainian army is, and remains, hostage to Musk, Trump, and Putin.
With that threat looming, Zelensky, who would surely have foreseen such a maneuver on Trump’s part, has possibly worked out and advanced the “European” alternative: weapons and internet coming from the European Union, with the promise of joining NATO and the European Union.
European countries are very concerned about Russian attitudes towards the rest of their continental mass. Many believe that Putin will not be satisfied with defeating Ukraine. If he wins that war, he will go after more local countries to rebuild his idea of a new Russian empire. Hence, the defensive logic behind the recent incorporation of Sweden and Finland into NATO.
American nationalism, protectionism, and isolationism in Trump’s time will make the United States disengage from that area of the world to concentrate on reoccupying Latin America (its backyard), taking care of Israel, and becoming strong in the Indo-Pacific, with Taiwan, Japan, Australia, and allies. The worst trade wars since the 1930s, which were a preamble to World War II, are looming.
It was not naive of Trump to include Musk in his phone call with Zelensky. And surely Putin already has the details of what was discussed and agreed. He had many friends in that conversation.
@rpascoep