Antonio Navalón
There are no surprises. Like López Obrador, Donald Trump was always clear about what he intended to do. Another thing is that common sense is expected to prevail, as has happened at other times in history. Trump has said things that to some might seem wacky or crazy, but that makes perfect sense -or at least that is the impression- to the millions of Americans who brought him back to the White House.
In some parts of the world -as is the case of the United States and Mexico- we live in times of majorities. Majorities in Congress, majorities in the Senate, and majorities in the governed states. The problem with having almost absolute control of everything that happens within a country is that one can fall into the error of believing it is a true democracy validated by the balance of powers that sustain it. In this sense, both President Trump and President Sheinbaum should remember that, just as their people gave them their trust in the form of votes, it will also be the people who will judge them by their actions.
Trump has consolidated a government team in record time, demonstrating that he learned from his experience in the Oval Office. In this second experience, he was aware that the first thing he had to do was create his own army and then go into the task of mercilessly pursuing those who, both during and after his presidency, had deceived, swindled, or persecuted him.
Mexico and Trump have a curious relationship. Trump knows that the United States would not be and could not continue to be what it is if it were not for the enormous and vital transfer of human elements produced by migration, both legal and illegal. At this moment, there are doubts about the need for humans in production processes with all the discoveries of artificial intelligence and the replacement of the human element in industrial processes; not that robots are going to replace us, but that artificial intelligence and the synthesis of productive processes put the indispensability of the human resource under debate as never seen before. The development and consolidation of the industrial structure will depend on a coalition between intelligence and analysis, components only a person can provide, and the savings represented by replacing the human component with technological and automated elements.
Treaties such as the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC, which establish a series of rules and standards to be met by the three countries that are part of it, are essential to propose a solution and a trilateral working method beneficial to the parties involved. Beyond the tariff threats or insults, the trade alliance between Mexico, Canada, and the United States represents one of the main trade blocs in the world, and even though some leaders do not want to accept it or find it hard to see it that way, it generates excellent benefits for the three countries.
These are bad times for Mexico due to the perception and deliberate decision that Mexico should do well, but only to a certain extent. This, together with the conviction of renouncing to place the State as the sole administrator of force, has taken its toll. At this moment, whoever wants to negotiate with our country knows that they have to deal with a government and with several cartels. If we add to that the vice, the depredation, and, above all, the increase in drug consumption by Americans as a consequence of the social and moral crisis they are going through, it is as if we were watching a runaway horse galloping over a pavement strewn with dead, dissatisfied and unhappy people, who do not know where it is going or how it will stop. This situation makes it clear that there will be no internal security in the United States without first fixing the Mexican problem.
Why is it so controversial and essential to consider the cartels as terrorist groups? Let no one be fooled: it is not just because doing so would allow them to send in rapid intervention armies in the form of drones or hit men to eliminate, hunt down, and, if they are lucky, arrest cartel leaders or key figures. No, the real impact of labeling them as terrorist groups substantially changes the ability and framework for U.S. prosecutors to act. It is a change that, while it risks further deteriorating the tense bilateral relationship, would also have clear benefits for the Americans, such as justifying the use of advanced surveillance technology and would help certain U.S. politicians reinforce their border security narrative, which could be electorally beneficial and would make it possible to allocate more budgetary and military resources to combat drug trafficking, justifying it as a matter of national security.
The penalties, sentences, and discredit of being part of a criminal network dedicated to drug trafficking are not comparable to the penalties and prosecution linked to terrorist crimes and would mean an inward movement so that all those who are part of -and there are many- or are related to the drug industry in the United States face a radical change in their horizon of legality. It is not only the issue of the change in the severity of sentences but also that, from that moment on, all crimes associated with any link or support to terrorism would be prosecuted.
It is one thing to have a relationship with the Sinaloa Cartel or the Jalisco Cartel – New Generation and another to have a relationship with ISIS, Al-Qaeda, or the current large terrorist groups such as Hamas or Hezbollah. There is no point of comparison in terms of the degree of permissibility, analysis, or ignorance towards the underworld of drug trafficking in the United States. The Mexican government must be aware that everything that was allowed or occurred until now is over and that, from here on, the solutions, violence, and resources implemented to combat the cartels will be -as will happen with the immigration issue- much more frontal and decisive.
Trump is consolidating his government with his wild bunch. Looking closely, you will realize that he qualifies and positions them all similarly. They are misfits and extremists within a system in crisis, but in the end, they reflect the current state of American politics and society. Hence, answering him with political actions or threats is entirely useless. This situation can only be fixed through facts, and what would be interesting to ask Trump at this moment is what matters more to him: a plan or strategy to control the rampant horse of drug consumption within his country or to control Mexico’s economic growth based on a structure that, at least for the moment, invalidates the possibility of having an agreement between equals.
Two threats, many doubts, and only one path. First was his intention to label the cartels as terrorist groups. Then, it was not enough, and Trump threatened to impose new tariffs of up to 25 percent on all products entering the United States from Canada and Mexico, a fact that, in addition, provoked the controversial statement of the head of the Ontario government that “comparing Canada with Mexico is the most insulting thing”. How far will the next tenant of the White House will go? Will he continue to talk to his voters, or will the rhetoric transcend and materialize into action this time? Trump, season two. Coming soon.
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