Pablo Hiriart
Madrid – It is impossible to predict the future, although we cannot pretend that we do not hear the footsteps of a giant beast in Europe, as the Nobel Prize winner from Aracataca would say. June will be a month of demonstrations in major European cities, with the slogan “No to war, against rearmament,” in a continental movement that will be a strange mixture of genuine pacifists and the unwary encouraged by Kremlin propaganda.
We will see organizations from the extreme right and extreme left seeking to weaken governments under any pretext to strengthen themselves. The main objective is to sabotage the NATO meeting, scheduled for the 24th and 25th in The Hague, whose aim is to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP in the coming years to defend against Russia if Ukraine falls.
“If Ukraine falls, World War III will be inevitable,” say diplomats and specialists, as Putin will advance on the Baltic countries he claims for “Greater Russia,” plus part of Poland. And Viktor Orbán’s Hungary wants the Ukrainian region of Transcarpathia (1.2 million inhabitants, many of them of Hungarian origin).
Donald Trump seems to be realizing that his “friend Vladimir” has played him for a fool, calling him “crazy” and giving Russia two weeks to prove that it genuinely wants peace. Few things are more dangerous than the wounded ego of a megalomaniac president exposed to ridicule. Russia bombs and kills while talking about peace; it breaks the order that emerged after World War II by expanding its territory by force, and in recent days, it has violated NATO airspace.
If anyone is convinced that peace can be preserved through deterrence, it is the new German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who, before taking office, promoted a constitutional amendment to raise the debt ceiling and allocate €500 billion to defense over the next 12 years. In the middle of last week, Merz welcomed the Ukrainian president to Berlin and pledged to help him with jointly manufactured long-range missiles and carte blanche to attack Russian territory. Merz wants peace and is following the advice that, therefore, we must prepare for war. Germany is preparing for war. Is that of little importance? At first glance, this measure seems encouraging to deter Putin, but… today, the leading political force in Germany is the Nazi-tinged AfD party.
With Germany’s economy stagnating (it has been stuck for two years), gas prices high due to the Russian war, and multimillion-dollar aid to Ukraine (Merz offered Zelensky an additional €5 billion on Wednesday “to weaken Moscow’s war machine”), plus Trump’s tariffs and the chancellor’s hands tied when it comes to economic reforms due to the agreement with the Social Democrats, the outlook is no longer as encouraging as it seems. There is no guarantee that the AfD will not come to power soon. Germany armed to the teeth, with an ultra-nationalist, racist, anti-European Union government that relativizes the Holocaust and leaders eager to kick out foreigners (mainly those of Arab origin)… Is this good news for the world?
The same applies to Romania, France, Austria, and even the United Kingdom, where Nigel Farage’s ultra-right Reform UK is already the second-largest political force. This uncertainty does not paralyze professional politicians, who argue with solid arguments that it is time to rearm to avoid war or face it. History teaches us that it is impossible to predict the future.
In 1974, the United States agreed with Iran to sell enriched uranium and two nuclear reactors, without any logic for energy generation (the Persian country was swimming in oil), and the following year, the agreement was expanded to eight new reactors, with a total value of approximately $21 billion. December 1977: President James Carter visited Tehran and praised Emperor Reza Pahlavi, whose “leadership, respect, and admiration for the people… make Iran an island of stability in one of the most troubled areas of the world.” A year later, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came to power in Iran, and the Shah sought refuge in Cuernavaca, later dying in Cairo.
Yes or no to rearmament will be the debate in Europe this month. A recent YouGov poll indicates that between 41% and 55% of the populations of Great Britain, France, Italy, Germany, and Spain believe that a Third World War will occur within the next 5 to 10 years. And that it will be nuclear. Only the French believe that their armed forces are capable of defending their country.
À vos armes, citoyens !“To arms, citizens” is the call of our time.
While this imperative for survival is being addressed or dismissed in a democratic and free political system, beer flows, laughter erupts, and glasses clink in the bars below my window on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights. It is not annoying, but rather the bustling lullaby of life that allows me to sleep happily for another night.
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