Antonio Navalón
We are living through a series of extraordinary circumstances. The current world context and conditions are entirely different from what we knew before. Periodic crises of all kinds are a kind of reflection of the intensity of relations between countries. Today, everything is tense, uncertain, and changing. These changes do not necessarily aim to create stability or make the problems that afflict our world and environment disappear. We are simply in a moment in which the general crisis of the world is already giving completely new, unknown profiles, and we are not sure how to deal with them.
A few years ago, believing that today we would be witnesses and victims of a prolonged energy crisis was unthinkable. To think that we would face such a terrible situation as the threat of freezing to death was inconceivable. However, due to an assortment of factors, among which are the different economic, financial, health, and political crises forged in recent times, today, the energy crisis is a reality. Amid excessive inflation, energy cost – both in monetary terms and in terms of its consequences on societies – has led to a turning point everywhere.
The world as we knew it is undergoing a real collapse. Look, for example, at the consequences of the energy crisis in Europe, especially Germany. For a long time, the European energy crisis was an improbable thing. Relying on deceptive Russian support to secure the supply of energy resources gave Europeans peace, security, and tranquility. However, a series of economic and political circumstances – such as inflation, energy costs, and strained diplomatic relations – have led to the dangerous situation in which European nations find themselves today.
Since 1917, from the beginning of the triumph of the Soviet revolution that culminated in 1923, there was a kind of sharing out of what investment meant. On the one hand, there was economic development. On the other hand, there was ideological development. And in between, there was the search to establish a mechanism that would allow both types of development to be compatible but, above all, to occur simultaneously and complement each other. At that time, investments revolved around securing these two main objectives. Today, investments have focused on one central sector: the energy sector.
Then came the invasion of Ukraine. A war that Russia could not lose and cannot lose. However, it is a war it is losing. From how it is reacting and the problems that are becoming more and more visible – both in Moscow and in St. Petersburg – one can see the inevitable replacement of a special military operation by a war of attrition. Nevertheless, it seems clear that the last days of the Ukrainian war are drawing ever closer. The Kremlin’s latest actions show that the gain or victory – depending on what they sought to gain from the conflict – is changing at full speed. And it is doing so for a fundamental reason: that, whatever happens, the energy business is superior to any other.
It is curious to see Vladimir Putin’s face. It is intriguing to know how an autocrat, little by little, is keeping himself in a situation where the mastery and management of energy resources is becoming increasingly important. At present, the most important activity for Russians revolves around energy; after all, the Russian industry is an energy industry. Vladimir Putin has chosen for the country he leads to be, above all, an energy company. A company that can gain through oil and gas the economic stability that no other way Russia has achieved in the last fifty years.
Looking at another part of the globe, this is the first time in thirty years that China is starting to lose money in terms of what actual development capabilities mean. In the second quarter of this year, the Chinese economy contracted by 2.6% compared to the first quarter, a figure higher than projected. Today, the growth spiral that the Chinese have been boasting about and achieving for the past thirty years has been interrupted. In the last fifty years, the Chinese have invested three times more in cement than all the cement the West used in the previous hundred years. Yet right now, China is reconfirming its borders, tightening its alliances, and seeing its economic growth increasingly hampered and slowed.
On the other hand, it seems clear that the United States has no choice but to find a military alternative that will allow it to remain in the lead. After the Ukrainian experience, the Americans need to make a complete reconversion of their economic activity. Amid a global context in which times of hunger, inflation, and need are looming, the basis for establishing the mechanisms, structures, and bases for growth of the US economy from this point on will be different from what is known.
It may be true that the Chinese are prepared to continue to grow and expand their horizons, especially in countries such as Mexico. Whether or not this will be something the Americans will allow is still uncertain. In any case, what is clear at this point is that the old order, the order that we knew, the order that arose after World War II, is gone forever.
We are facing a time when the world and its structures are being readjusted and reconditioned. Today the outlook and the future revolve around the energy capacity of countries. Those nations that are prepared to grow their position in this area will come out of this time of uncertainty in the best possible way. An uncertainty linked to the deepening crisis of democracies. At this moment, no one wants to continue betting or investing in the separation of powers, in the guarantee of freedoms, or in the fact that the best way to clear responsibilities is precisely to continue intensifying and increasing the quality of the democratic offer.
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