Antonio Navalón
This year has been a historic watershed. The 22nd year of the 21st century is on track to become a landmark year where the history of the world as a whole is taking a direction that will be discussed in the future. It is necessary to remember that we have reached such a point where what is at stake is not just isolated disputes or superficial conflicts but that what is really at stake is the stability of the planet.
For anyone who doubts the historical moment we are going through, let them look at the great England. Liz Truss will not only hold the record for being the most fleeting Prime Minister in British history, but the forty-five days of her term of office reflect the difficult and complicated times we are living through.
In a very short period, Liz Truss first had to bury Queen Elizabeth II, undoubtedly the greatest queen, not only for the length of her mandate but also for the outstanding achievement of having managed to ensure that the British monarchy survived for so long and despite the many social, political and economic difficulties that arose. Second, it was his turn to bury the tradition that a Prime Minister has – just like a President of a country – a patina that makes them, by force and by the instinct of the preservation of others, stay in power, often far beyond their abilities and merits. While Franklin Delano Roosevelt buried the British Empire and it was Winston Churchill who had to preside over the mourning, now not only England has left Europe with Brexit, but with the actions of Liz Truss, a tradition of more than four hundred years of political seriousness in the exercise of public service has come to an end.
As if what happened in England at the beginning of the week was not enough, at the end of the same week, Beijing put an end to the era of the giants. Hu Jintao, former Chinese President, sitting on the right side of his successor, was ousted from the communist Olympus and the ballot with the express permission of China’s current leader. With this, and with the world as a witness, the return of the Emperor’s era in China was ushered in.
As history has a sense of humor – sometimes tragic and black – but humor nonetheless, it has made this November that is about to begin a decisive month. With times in modern China comparable only to those experienced by the Great Helmsman, Mao Zedong, this month will also be decisive for the recently acclaimed and elected third and final term, Xi Jinping. In this third term, the Chinese leader finds himself in a leap without continuity and with the responsibility of maintaining the role, not of the China led by Deng Xiaoping and those who survived the Cultural Revolution that ended the Maoist regime but that of a China that has great historical relevance – considering all the efforts made by its ancestors to consolidate communist China – and that today is seeking to establish itself as a decisive player in modernity.
The United States today is facing a tense and delicate situation. Americans are currently facing a landscape the likes of which they have not experienced since the time of Abraham Lincoln and the Civil War. In two weeks, on November 5, they will experience a turning point in their history. It appears likely that the Republicans will win a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Should this happen in 2024 – if there is no court action to prevent it – Donald Trump’s path to a second, much more terrible, term as President of the United States will be assured. In any case, the outcome of the second Tuesday after the first Monday – as established by the U.S. Constitution on mid-term elections and several core States, including Texas – will shape which model will govern U.S. politics in the coming years.
I believe that the massive crisis that the State of California is going through and the situation of severe confrontation and monopolization of the separation and conflict between Democrats and Republicans – as well as between original Republicans and Trumpian Republicans – places the moment that the United States is currently experiencing at a point in which, whether one wants it or not, especially for Mexico, the relevance of the State of Texas is fundamental. I have little doubt that Greg Abbott will be re-elected as Governor of Texas, just as I am almost sure that when it comes to the USMCA and the increasingly tense and challenging relationship between Mexico and the United States, Texas is called upon to play a decisive role. And not only because it is a state that links the relationship between Mexico and the United States but also because, at this moment, it has a unity of political action and a social body that places it as the great balancing state within the U.S. territory.
If the Democrats win the elections, we will face another terrible problem: it is increasingly evident that, at present, there is simply no Democratic Party. The division within the party is so great that, if it wins, one of the first things its leaders will have to do is to define how they will rejoin the existing cracks and divisions. It will have to be determined if it will be a Democratic Party-aligned to Biden, as is the case of Ambassador Salazar, or if it will be a party aligned to characters like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. They, in themselves, define a whole new political personality and give a new image to the party itself.
As can be seen, for one reason, China, and for another, the United States, the world is going through a moment of definition in which it is trying to find out what will happen with both the powers and the other countries. All this uncertainty is reflected in a war that is becoming more dangerous every day and must be brought to an end as soon as possible. The war between Russia and Ukraine has become the greatest threat to world peace since 1939. Not since the outbreak of World War II has the world faced such a grave threat and danger as it is today. U.S. meddling in the conflict and Vladimir Putin’s relentless aggression against the Ukrainians has brought us to a tipping point, an extremely fragile point where anything can happen.
Even if it is apparently winning it, Ukraine cannot win this war. To begin with, Putin cannot lose the war without losing his privileged position in the Kremlin. And if there is a violent internal exit – considering the score-settling workings of how Russia has historically functioned – surely his own life could also be at risk.
If one observes the current crisis in which the Americans are involved amid a panorama in which the Germans are seeking to regain their place, with a weakened European community and an unsolvable and unwinnable war, it is inevitable to think that the future depends on finding the elements to define and stabilize what it means to find a way out of such a conflictive situation as the one we are going through.
The absence of clear leadership, the risk of confrontation, and the risk of losing wars that cannot have definitive winners explain and demonstrate why it is necessary to find a diplomatic and political solution to the conflict as soon as possible. Moreover, should we succeed, we will have to learn the lessons of this era and do everything in our power to prevent a similar situation from happening again.
The cold-bloodedness of the Kremlin Tsar continues to amaze. After the apparently terrorist act of blowing up the bridge linking the Crimean peninsula to the Russian nation, Putin’s reaction was expected to be wild and furious. However, Putin did not give in to his impulses, kept a cool head, and is now turning his attention to destroying something more essential that will have a more profound impact. The Russian leader has put aside direct confrontation and has dedicated himself to meddling in European homes, cutting off the energy that allowed them to warm up and damaging their daily lives.
It is difficult today to govern amid this panorama of instability and insecurity, but it is clear that major crises are almost never solved suddenly or with hasty reactions. Therefore, the first step to regaining balance is undoubtedly to achieve a situation in which, first, the Ukrainian conflict is resolved. Second, that we learn to live with the forty-year turnaround that means returning to complete dependence on fossil fuels, elements that have been decisive in the Ukrainian war and that will be decisive in any other conflict.
We, the USMCA countries, are in quite a crisis. It is difficult to know how we will end the year, but it is clear that the deadlines are over for everyone. We are getting closer and closer to the precipitation of a conflict for which there is no possibility of an easy way out for any of us. And concerning this issue, I would like to recall that there is no USMCA without Mexico and no Mexico without USMCA. Having said that, clearly, and regardless of how the internal U.S. conflict ends, it is essential to know that the economic balance that the USMCA represents is impossible to disappear.
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