Antonio Navalón
The story of this year, 2023, began on the shoulders of tanks. On February 24 last year, there was the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and from there, naturally, we enter a scenario in which we have to combine, first, how the Russians feel in Russia. Second, what European history is like, and what we can learn from what has already happened in the past. Third, what has happened in the last century in shaping the maps of Europe.
Russians have a great predilection – admittedly with good reason – for feeling isolated and about to be invaded. As far as invasions are concerned, the Russians already have experience; one need only remember what happened in 1812 when Napoleon invaded Russia or in 1941 with Operation Barbarossa led by Adolf Hitler. As for the issue of isolation, NATO’s eastward expansions – Sweden and Finland being the last ones to be invited to join the alliance – and the constant economic sanctions have also been factors to feed this feeling. Hence, Vladimir Putin’s discourse – whatever dictatorial ambitions the Russian leader may have within his territory – that he seeks to ensure that his nation is not invaded again or wholly isolated is not entirely meaningless.
It is more difficult to change the feelings and the historical gene of peoples than to understand the reasons or explanations for political actions. The memory of the Soviet Union, the territory that at one time became the second most powerful actor on the planet, protected certain situations based on those peoples’ permanent hatred. Today, we are seeing that justification again with what is happening in Ukraine or in different countries that, at some point, were Soviet satellites. Countries that saw the fall of the Berlin Wall as an opportunity to be free and get out of Russian interference forever. That same logic is what leads Putin to consider that his country has historical and defensive notions of preserving its territorial sovereignty by invading a country that, although it has not been independent for long, is an independent nation, such as Ukraine.
In any case, with the lifting of the embargo on the large armored vehicles of our time, we have reached a qualitative phase in which it is more and more difficult to know when Russia will understand and declare as an act of war any of the elements of support provided by the West to Ukraine. It is very dangerous what has happened with the sending, first, of Leopard tanks and then of Abrams tanks to Ukrainian territory. It is, above all, because, from this moment on, Russia cannot afford to lose the war. Although what is also a fact is that the Russians cannot consider the complete invasion of Ukraine.
The world, Europe, and we are in the middle of a situation where we have to work on not increasing the stakes of the conflict’s military power but working on a political and diplomatic solution before everything gets out of hand uncontrollably. History teaches us that half of all wars are blamed on miscalculations about the capabilities of the countries and misinterpretation of the interests and motives of each involved.
A few weeks ago, a Russian-made missile hit the Polish border with Ukraine, killing two people and putting on alert not only the Warsaw government but all of NATO. This fact, together with NATO’s expansionist intentions and Putin’s ambitions, makes the possibility of reaching a diplomatic agreement more remote and, what is worse, significantly complicates what will happen from this point on. Poland, the old and much desired Poland, the territory that at some point was simultaneously invaded by Hitler on the one hand and Stalin on the other, has been the main weapon to force a statement and a decision on the transfer of tanks to Ukraine. Today, Poland is taking advantage of the Ukrainian crisis to force the delivery of the tanks.
The Ukrainian conflict has suited the United States and Biden well. But, from here on, the Ukrainian conflict – considering the question of the transfer of the tanks through Polish territory and the implications at stake – may end up being a conflict with more significant consequences than anticipated. Therefore, one has to vary the ways of looking at it and understanding the different positions and interests at stake. For example, while Germany’s priority is to normalize its relationship with Russia, the United States’ priority is to guarantee Ukraine’s independence. And, as much as they are in favor of stopping the Russian outrage on Ukrainian territory, this conflict is not more important than preserving and ensuring the proper heating of the homes of its inhabitants, in addition to all the economic benefits that a formal normalization would bring in the relationship with its Russian counterpart.
All of Europe can take whatever position it wants when defending the principle of the independence of the European peoples, but at the end of the day, what is at stake, what is really at stake, is the outbreak of World War III. Neither the American crisis nor the Chinese problem nor the feeling of Russian isolation justifies the escalation of a conflict over which no one is in a position to end in a reasonable time and at a reasonable cost.
During World War II, the Germans had the best tank of the time, which was the Tiger. However, Hitler’s ambitions were dulled – among other factors – when faced with countless Soviet T-34 tanks. After what happened last week and on the shoulders of Leopard and Abrams tanks on the Western side and T-72s on the Russian side, it is uncertain what may happen from this point on. “They will burn like the rest,” were the words of Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, after the support tanks were sent to Ukraine. Whatever we do and however we see it, at this moment, we not only need to put an end to the fears and uncertainty of the movements of one of the players involved – as in this case is Russia – but we also need to elaborate and prepare all the conditions for us to be able to renegotiate a possible peace. And that involves, among other things, a redrafting of the rules of the countries’ game of power and energy capacities.
A year from the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukraine may be a good beginning of a new world or the last act of extinction of the world we have known.
Tanks come and go, and the danger of war increases. And all to safeguard an independence that was voted in 1990 at a dacha outside Moscow between five bureaucrats and a drunken President who was Boris Yeltsin. A few months earlier, Ukraine conducted a popular poll that found that ninety percent of Ukrainians wanted to remain Russian.
For that sovereignty, which is less than forty years old. Because of that habit of constantly kneading the maps of Europe, made on the basis of blood and the great wars being the leaven. That is why the Americans play at defending freedom while endangering all Europeans. Territories and societies are trying to avoid tanks which, if they eventually arrive, will arrive too late to save the sovereignty – unwillingly obtained- of the Ukrainian people.
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