Antonio Navalón
It is clear that until January 2025, the flagship and most important program, the Treaty between Mexico, the United States, and Canada – also known as CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC – which in turn represents one of the largest commercial markets in the world, will not have any relevant modification in its structure or dynamism. Among other things, this is because both the United States and Mexico will be holding a unique presidential election. Not only will these elections affect more than four hundred and fifty million people, but they will also question the preservation of the essence of democracy, especially in a country like the United States, which has been boasting for more than two hundred and fifty years that it is the best and largest democracy in the world.
López Obrador has never believed in big treaties or agreements that require such a level of commitment as, for example, the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC. The Mexican President has never really felt very attached to the country’s destiny at the international level, but rather, deep down and when he is alone, he resents the intervention and conditioning brought about by those agreements that modified or will modify the autonomous capacity to regulate, legislate or decide on the country’s internal destiny. President López Obrador never liked and did not like sharing power in any sphere or area. He did not like it at the domestic level, which is why he has acted as he has, and much less has he wanted to do so at the international level, proof of which are the results of the foreign policy exercised during this six-year term.
If Donald Trump finally manages to reawaken that intense patriotism rooted in the hearts of many Americans, if he manages to dodge and get out of the judicial processes in which he is involved, if he manages to get the money to pay the millions of dollars he owes for having been found guilty of some civil lawsuits; and, if – as a consequence of this – he manages to win the elections, he will be a president who will not only be willing – as he has already said – to overturn everything that is on the table, especially about major defensive agreements such as the NATO agreement. Moreover, one has to be aware that Trump’s world is alien to what might be logical or normal for most people. The former U.S. President had great successes during his term in office, for example, the imposition of tariffs, which, although it unleashed a trade war with China, partially contained the overwhelming Chinese growth and interference in the world.
The only thing that interests Donald Trump more than his figure is to make America great again. However, for him, America begins and ends at the country’s territorial limits with the Stars and Stripes. Therefore, concerning the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC until January 2025, there is not much we can expect either from the trilateral panel meetings or any substantial changes that could allow Mexico not only to continue to be the leading trading partner of the United States but also allow it to position itself as a diamond in the rough with significant growth in the medium term and an essential player in the modern economy. We will have to wait and, above all, see if whoever succeeds López Obrador and whoever ends up occupying the Oval Office have the same intentions and the idea that Mexico’s economic potential has yet to explode.
Due to the technological and communications revolution, habits exploded, and blessed social networks were born. If Barack Obama was the first president, son of YouTube, undoubtedly, this battle marks the end of what means a world of neighborhoods and gatekeepers where everyone can spit to see who gets the farthest without being linked to political campaigns and subjected to the obligation, to tell the truth even under torture. I have the impression that this campaign – both in the United States and in Mexico – will be a turning point and something that will give way to a rebalancing between the pressure of virtual encirclement and the manifestation of political performance to sell a product.
In any case, President López Obrador is tightening the rope to such an extent that we will see how far it will hold or if it will end up breaking. In any case, it is necessary to observe that what he is doing is the most intelligent campaign to benefit his candidate. Everything he jeopardizes, compromises, or pressures is what his candidate could fix and rise as a heroine, no matter how radical the decisions and actions are taken. As if that were not enough, and in the case, at times he forgets where he comes from and where he has to go, there is the modification of the revocation of the mandate to remind him -if there is a miracle and Claudia is not elected- to either of the two that this is over with the hard core of Morena at the moment, the President wants it that way.
Understanding and grasping the signals at all times and under all circumstances is necessary. I congratulate myself and am glad that the fireworks and theoretical approaches are over; this is simply a campaign that is the most decisive of our lives. This is commonly said about all campaigns, but, unlike the others, on this occasion, the U.S. crisis converges with our own crises, with the redefinition of the role of the world of organized crime, the limits of the state and how economic development can be built without legal guarantees, without energy guarantees, without water guarantees and, what is more important, without guarantees that the country will not become more and more similar – even if imperceptible – to what was the “Green Zone” in Baghdad after the U.S. invasion of 2003.
In Mexico City, it would seem that there is a deceptive tranquility and mirage as if nothing were happening, but the reality is that everything is happening. It is enough to go and walk around the different peripheries of the CDMX to know that in any place, you can be assaulted by the absence of the Law and the disorder imposed by the new order that, in turn, is the one that emanates from the territorial conquest of organized crime groups.
That is the lesson. On the one hand, above the top, the rope is being pulled taut and watched to see if it will break. On the other hand, as long as they manage to intimidate the others with their actions, Claudia will come to fix what has been done, and, therefore, everything will be a gain. I have the feeling that Mexico City is irretrievably giving up for loss. Moreover, when I read the presidential sentence about gentrification in the capital, I understood that this would not be Morena’s Stalingrad. That is to say, it is decided to abandon everything for the majority in Congress and the Senate.
Assuming that there is no turning back for the presidency -which is a lot to assume- which in reality is where all efforts are concentrated, what must be known is that in no way can there be an interruption of the political program of the President and his political arm, which is Morena, neither in Congress nor in the Senate. Something elementary will be left for another moment, which is the rupture of the federal pact. We have always known that the budget equals politics. However, at this moment, the governors look like mayors, and the budget -according to their own confession in one of the many videos, who knows if it is true- is no longer managed by the governors but by the will of the President to manage everything. And if the governors have no budget and cannot operate with their own electoral instruments, tell me the difference between a mayor who makes floral games and a governor with no weapons, no money, and no project for his state. But for now, that is not a priority and will be left for later; for the time being, we will have to contemplate the actual battle, which will be the one that will be won by those who can impose their laws, their will and their model of country in the Chamber of Deputies as well as in the Senate.
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