Antonio Navalón
Some U.S. political pundits believe that the biggest mistake made by Kamala Harris – who, let’s remember, is still serving as Vice President of the United States – was not separating herself sufficiently from her President, Joe Biden. This situation compares to what happened in 1968, when Hubert Humphrey, vice president in the Lyndon B. Johnson administration, sought to be elected president of the United States of America. At that time, Humphrey did not show sufficient autonomy and determination to position himself as a unique candidate and not as the continuation of the Johnson administration. The result? Richard Nixon prevailed by approximately 500,000 votes and became the 37th president of the United States.
With more than 75 million people casting early ballots by the end of last week—surpassing the number of voters in 2008 and 2012 and being a good sign of the democratic exercise—it is hard to imagine that these voters were there to bring about a generational shift in the election. Put another way, these people looked like Trumpists and reacted like Trumpists.
It is challenging to forecast what will happen on Tuesday. What started as a seemingly easy election for Donald Trump has become a real challenge. Tuesday will not only decide who will govern the United States for the next four years, but it will also determine – among many other things – what the future of the bilateral relationship with Mexico will look like. As has been the case for decades, what Americans decide at the polls – and, more importantly, the outcome ultimately determined by the electoral college – will impact Mexico and the entire world.
I will never forget the feeling I had when I attended Hillary Clinton’s closing rally at Independence Hall in Philadelphia, the very site where the Declaration of Independence was adopted and the U.S. Constitution was drafted. Accompanied by her husband Bill, then-President Barack Obama, his wife Michelle, and many other leaders, I was struck by the spirit of victory in the room. That day, we all thought Hillary’s victory was imminent. It wasn’t. What started as an event full of hope and jubilation ended up being overshadowed by the triumph of a character who, at first, no one imagined would even get the Republican nomination but who ended up winning in 2016.
There are few new facts in these elections; the most relevant, in this generalized crisis of institutions and this global democratic crisis, is to know that societies have changed. In this new emerging democratic system, it is not enough to have an overwhelming will capable of modifying any law at will; it is necessary to understand that societies – especially in the United States – are staking their future not only on an administration but on the framework, the structure and the legal system that sustains them.
American voters have changed, and one of the decisive and fundamental factors in the upcoming elections will be the electorate’s composition and how groups such as young people, women, Latinos, and African Americans cast their votes. Today, the demographic study and the electoral map are very different from those that brought Trump to the White House in 2016, proof of which is the apparently close contest he is disputing with Kamala Harris.
In this generalized failure of democracies, it will be indispensable to observe who is capable of understanding that the best way to reestablish and redesign structures is by guaranteeing a system where freedoms and balances of power prevail above all else, even the leader of the moment. The time has come for countries to exercise introspection and analyze how hard they strive to create and develop a structure of rights and freedoms. It is no longer a time for individualities; it is time to work on what has been destroyed and focus on what can be improved for future generations.
For Donald Trump, it is not only his return to the White House that is at stake but also his freedom to a large extent. In this election, Trump’s fate is at stake: if he fails to win, he will most likely end up serving time for the multiple crimes he is accused of, some of which he has already been found guilty of. For Trump, it is essential to return to the most powerful office in the world and continue enjoying his days as a free man away from behind bars.
With 48 hours to go before America decides who will be its next president, I want to remind the world that in 2016, American society made a choice contrary to what the Establishment and the elites had decided. In 2016, the United States showed that there was still room for surprise and novelty in its democracy. Having won the popular vote and served as First Lady, Senator, and even Secretary of State was not enough for Hillary Clinton to prevail over what could be classified as one of the great political surprises of the 21st century. Seventy-four electoral college votes gave Trump the necessary advantage to make the almost three million votes that made Clinton’s popular majority insignificant.
A new Trump administration would not only mean putting the world back on a roller coaster. It would also institute lying and unrestrained confrontation as a method of governance. In any case, what is evident and cannot be hidden is that triumphal air that today accompanies the Trumpists of the world. However, it should not be forgotten that societies are volatile and that, just as in 2016, they granted power to a real estate tycoon, Tuesday they could hand over the keys to the Oval Office to who could become the first woman president of the United States of America.
Whatever happens, there is a reflection that the world can no longer avoid. It is not only a crisis of the political classes in general; above all, it is the widespread contempt that has generated the ineffectiveness and misuse that governments have made of the will, popular faith, and democracy.
If he wins, Donald Trump will become the first president to leave behind two female opponents in what is set to be the era of women. If Trump wins, it will not only be a democracy that loses; it is indispensable to ask – and not only in terms of overwhelming personalities – what the future we want to follow is. Will societies continue to vote and opt for individualities, or will we elect the one who offers a better vision and program for the future? Be that as it may, it doesn’t take a soothsayer to know what Trump offers. What remains an unknown is what Kamala Harris may offer should she win.
Last January 6, 2021, the United States and the entire world witnessed how far Trump and his ilk can go when the outcome is not in their favor. The assault on one of the American nation’s most symbolic and representative institutions will be marked in history and should not be forgotten, given what may happen Tuesday. On the eve of what is set to be one of the closest elections in modern U.S. history, the big question to be answered is: what if Trump does not win?
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