Antonio Navalón
Today, with 25 more years behind us, it is inevitable to look back and remember the beginning of the 21st century. As it had barely begun, the world faced profound transformation and unprecedented paralysis. Crises of all kinds shook the planet, but once again, faith proved to be our beacon. Therefore, dear reader, I invite you to cultivate your faith and keep the best of everything and everyone.
The 21st century began with blood and fire, and now, with Donald Trump at the gates of the White House, the world seems to return to that boiling point. The enemies of America and peace reflect the logical chaos of a planet at war. But history always has its ways of warning us.
Think of the Italian anarchist who, with a dagger in hand, ended the life of Empress Elisabeth of Bavaria, known as “Sissi”. That seemingly isolated act ignited the spark that marked the beginning of the end for the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
What followed was a series of tragedies for the Habsburg dynasty. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo at the hands of Gavrilo Princip not only snuffed out the life of the heir to the throne but sparked a world war. What began as a local conflict in the Balkans became a global bloodbath.
That assassination was the trigger that Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany used to redraw the map of Europe. With the Austro-Hungarian Empire weakened Germany emerged as a modern power driven by its military technology and automobile industry, with Mercedes Benz at the forefront. Thus, the Kaiser forged an empire built on technological progress and the strength of its cannons.
At the beginning of this year, a reflection that we cannot ignore arises: those who do not know their past are condemned to get lost in the future. But knowing where we come from is not enough; we need a plan. Arriving at a destination is not enough if we do not understand why we want to be there and what we will do when we get there.
Today, once again, the world is on fire. The Middle East burns after a century of conflict. For the first time in its history, Israel has decided to stand up. After six thousand years of persecution and outrage, after suffering the Holocaust and countless other atrocities, Israelis have chosen to stop having their necks at the mercy of the guillotine of history.
Nations’ political and strategic geography is constantly changing, and with it comes new tensions. Europe is no exception: Austria, the historical cradle of the hardest right-wing extremists, has already succumbed to these forces. Next month’s elections in Germany may allow Germany’s extreme right to come to power. Has Europe forgotten the lessons of extremism, or are its societies so lost that they no longer know what they want?
Mexico is not exempt from this historical amnesia. We need to remember what the PRI, the PAN, and figures like Vicente Fox meant or the events that led to Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s landslide triumph in 2018. Similarly, Germany must look back and understand how leaders like Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl built the country that today faces a crossroads.
The current German challenge is not to hold Europe together or economically or socially discipline the old continent but to prevent the pendulum from swinging to the far right. Should the far-right triumph in Germany, its real challenge will be to create a political dynamic where the far right—as is happening in Italy with Giorgia Meloni, who paradoxically is doing a good job—can get into government without scaring anyone and do it efficiently.
Everything has changed. Today, the world we knew no longer exists. However, strictly speaking, our world actually collapsed with the Twin Towers. And now, in Donald Trump’s return to the White House, fire is fought with fire and blood with blood.
As far as is known, there have only been two terrorist attacks in the United States. To label everything that does not fit the interests of a country as terrorists is a dangerous and even extremist thing to do. To do so, all Trump needs in his return to the Oval Office is to have all the demonstrable reasons through fear and violence that his program is not extreme. What is extreme, though, is the situation the world has reached.
Since the end of World War II, the political system that fostered democratic development and the transition from dictatorships to free societies has begun to crumble. It is no longer possible to convince people that investing in human rights and constitutional guarantees is the best decision. People fear the vacuum, and in desperation, they prefer the false security of authoritarian leaders to the uncertainty of democracies that do not guarantee stability.
The institutions that used to balance power—assemblies, congresses, and parliaments—are weakened and, in some cases, eradicated. If we do not correct our course, the democratic dream will remain a lost utopia. But we cannot allow that to happen. We cannot continue to bequeath a failed system to our children. We must exchange doubts for certainties, fear for hope, and words for action. And for that, we need a plan.
Today, trust falls on absolute leaders who rise for lack of clear opposition and strong proposals. But the real change is not in them but in us. Will we be capable of leading our destiny? That is the big question.
The concept of religious wars is something we have been putting off and avoiding confronting directly since September 11, 2001. The day the Twin Towers fell, so did the possibility of using religion as fuel for war again.
The terrorist attacks perpetrated in the United States are a manifestation of and reaction to the covert religious wars that have long been brewing, developing, and being contained in the Middle East. Western intervention in the region and the change in military doctrines in countries such as Syria and Lebanon are just the beginning of a conflict whose consequences could be as disastrous as they are unpredictable.
Every action brings a reaction. For more than a century, we have been living under the fantasy and fallacy that provocation and the historical guilt assumed by the Jewish people explain their condemnation of living surrounded by a hundred million enemies. But even if Israelis manage to overcome the challenge of living under constant threat, they must always be prepared for the day after.
What will come after the conflict? Will the fire that threatens the integrity and coexistence of the region ever be quelled? Will maps and interests be reconfigured? How will it coexist with a Middle East led by Saudi Arabia and its king, Salman bin Abdulaziz? History gives no respite, and the future always demands answers.
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