Pablo Hiriart
Madrid-. The distancing of the United States from the West brought about by Trump “and his idyll with Putin’s Russia, which nobody expected to be on this scale”, will cause “China to do what it has always done: seize the opportunity”.
China, “the big winner with globalization”, will take the opportunity offered by Trump to enter the West more strongly “with its trade, investments, and loan checkbook”.
This is what Juan Pablo Cardenal, writer and journalist, correspondent in China for 11 years (2003-2014), columnist for The New York Times, South China Morning Post, El Mundo, El País, and author of the books The Silent Conquest of China, The Unstoppable Chinese Conquest and The Spider’s Web,
-Is there an ideological purpose to China’s expansion?
-I don’t think China intends to export its model. It likes the dependence it generates. It has satellite countries in Asia. Is that ideological? I don’t know. What they want is a friendly environment. They have good relations with democracies and dictatorships. There is no moral issue involved. They want a friendly relationship, and if that turns into dependence and having satellites, so much the better. Cardenal explains that China launched its international expansion so that its economic engines would not be slowed down. So as not to jeopardize “the social pact that exists between the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese people: you do not question the power of the Communist Party, in exchange for the government guaranteeing you prosperity.”
It must be emphasized, he says, that ”everything China does abroad has a domestic key.”
Thus, “they don’t care that seven million Venezuelans have had to leave their country because of the dictatorship. If Maduro falls and a democratic government comes in, they’ll be fine too.”
“How will the Trump-Putin romance be taken in Beijing?” I ask the Zurich-based writer.
-We still don’t know the extent of this unexpected romance. I’ve read that it could be a strategy to weaken China. It would be the opposite of what Nixon did: he saw that it was good politics to establish a good relationship with China to weaken the Soviet Union. It’s pure speculation.
-What weaknesses does China have?
I wouldn’t say that China is a giant with feet of clay, no. However, it has enormous structural problems because it is an economy doubly dominated by the state, not only because of the system it has but also because Xi Jinping took it upon himself to call the private sector to order. There has been a recentralization of power in the Communist Party, including the economy.
Does it have the strength to unseat the United States?
The same model that has allowed it to get this far and to undergo the most significant transformation in the history of humanity in modern times is not the right one for a great power. Consumption is not at the level of developed economies. The fact that it is not a free economy and the state controls it for political reasons is an insurmountable obstacle. Its model has helped it to escape from poverty and for the population to prosper significantly. I doubt that it is the model that is needed to unseat the world’s leading economic and technological power.
He goes into detail: “The patents they have are not very relevant. They haven’t made a single molecule in the pharmaceutical industry. If you don’t have a free system, with incentives to innovate, you won’t do it.”
-What is the Chinese education system like?
The veteran Beijing correspondent replies: ”It’s pure repetition. It’s not questioning or discussing the teacher’s criteria. The Chinese elites go to study in the United States.”
Juan Pablo Cardenal continues: “The expansion of Chinese companies, led by the large state-owned companies and banks, are all subject to the will of the Executive, they are not independent. They all have their Communist Party committee inside.
“The operational managers of a Chinese company (which operates at a loss) in the Congo told me that the reason for being there was because the Congo is strategic for obtaining copper and cobalt. If we transfer that idea to the economy in general, political reasons that prevail over economic efficiency, you are putting an obstacle to your development”.
-Where are their strengths, then?
-China’s merit is the large amount of data it has at its disposal. They are also leaders in batteries, solar plants, wind energy, and artificial intelligence.
-The Chinese government says it is prepared for a trade war ‘or any other kind of war’…
“We’ve always heard that rhetoric. Besides, it’s what he has to say. He can’t say anything else,” replies Juan Pablo Cardenal, and concludes:
“Donald Trump, with his speech of hostility (to the historical allies of the United States), has given China a great breath of fresh air to become the leader of the so-called global south.”
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