Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take:
The Trump administration’s approach to foreign policy is clear: allies and alliances are expendable, and America is stronger alone. With support for Ukraine waning and European allies sidelined, long-term damage to transatlantic relationships may be inevitable.
Marco Rubio is heading to Saudi Arabia to talk with the Ukrainians. That’s clearly the most important of many moving parts geopolitically in the world right now. I say that because so much of what the Americans decide to do and not do with the Ukrainians is going to have a massive impact on the transatlantic relationship, on NATO, on US-Europe relations, and on the nature of what has been the most important collective security arrangement in the world and is now experiencing a crisis. It’s very clear that the Ukrainians, as Trump says, lack the cards. Therefore, the outcome will be determined largely by countries outside of Ukraine, not just the willingness and capacity of the Ukrainians themselves to continue to fight. The United States, on the one hand, is pushing the Europeans to do a lot more. There is a lot more in terms of providing economic support, military support, and a security backstop for a post-ceasefire environment that the Americans are not prepared to participate in.
Now, if all of that happens, and of course, that’s a big if, but certainly the Europeans are moving in that direction, then the interesting point is the Americans aren’t going to determine the outcome. In the sense that the ultimate ceasefire terms will be driven not by the United States, who’s basically saying, “We’re washing our hands of it.” But instead by the Europeans and the Ukrainians, in concert with Russia. And first of all, that’s analogous to what’s been happening in the Middle East. Everybody remembers that Trump said, “We’re going to own Gaza, and all the Palestinians are going to leave,” and of course, that’s not where we’re heading. The eventual outcome will be determined overwhelmingly by the countries that are prepared to spend the money, provide security, and figure out the politics. And that means the Arab States, that means Egypt and Jordan, it means Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and it means the potential for blocking by Israel.
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