Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
It is tempting to think that the Zelensky-Trump feud will not affect Mexico. Some unwary people might even believe it is in our interest because it distracts Trump’s attention from areas far from our territory.
Contrary to these opinions, the quarrel witnessed in the White House’s Oval Office can potentially pose risks for Mexico. Future events must be monitored closely to determine how to protect the country if the United States takes a dangerous turn toward a vulnerable neighbor.
For several reasons, Trump perceives us as uniquely vulnerable to his threats and pressures; first, because of Mexico’s economic situation. I wouldn’t say the economy is hanging by a thread, but it is fragile. AMLO’s mega-works have represented, and continue to represent, an anchor that drags down the national economy, especially public finances. The Mexican treasury is desperate to balance income and expenditure, a task that for the time being seems impossible, considering the policy of continued public financing of businesses that do not generate profits, such as the Mayan Train, the Dos Bocas refinery, Mexicana de Aviación, and AIFA, in addition to covering the debt gaps of Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE). In addition, social support programs represent a growing fiscal burden. And to cover these commitments, public health, public education, and productive investment in Mexico are suffering.
Trump also believes that drug trafficking continues to dominate the corridors of political power in Mexico. Indeed, reflecting this suspicion, Washington made it clear that it does not consider the handing over of 29 leaders of different Mexican cartels to be sufficient. Proof of this was its silence regarding this handover. Washington did show its appreciation for the gift. It remained silent, essentially saying that it expects more. What more does it expect? According to some experts in the field, Washington expects the surrender of some Morena politicians who are actively involved in the cause of “hugs, not bullets.” Will the surrender of Rubén Rocha, the governor of Sinaloa, be enough to save other “bigwigs” from Morena’s political structure? It is believed that it will not be enough to fill that gap.
We must not forget that the surrender of Caro Quintero theoretically paves the way for an arrest warrant and/or capture of Manuel Bartlett, former director general of the CFE under the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, for the murder of DEA agent Enrique Camarena and his pilot. The presence of Mayo Zambada in the United States opens the doors of the presidential palace to accusations against former President López Obrador and his relatives and emissaries to Badiraguato.
An educated guess would indicate that the United States has documented information on the apparently broad, democratic, and widespread political relations between the drug trafficking structures and the municipal, state, and national leadership of Morena. Based on this criterion, it is clear that Trump expects from Sheinbaum, as he expects from Zelensky in the case of Ukraine, the complete surrender of Morena and, possibly, its abandonment of power. The latter – Morena’s surrender – could naturally respond to internal decomposition after surrendering to US justice of several visible and relevant Morena leaders, including some of its founders. If Trump expects Zelensky’s surrender, there would be no reason to doubt that he would expect the same from Sheinbaum and her party.
The duel between Trump and Zelensky has forced everyone to get real. Gone are the days of being in a comfort zone about the war in Ukraine. It is a war that can be lost. Trump thought he had the political strength to impose his solution. After that quarrel in the White House, and with Europe showing solidarity with Ukraine, the President of the United States is facing a bitter reality: he does not have enough political strength to impose a solution on either of the two opponents. And that is because Russia has not defeated Ukraine militarily, nor is it close to doing so. Therefore, his supposed solution to the conflict has abruptly vanished.
Ukrainians and Europeans now have the crucial diplomatic task of telling Trump this truth, but without making him even more furious than he already is.
The problem for Mexico is that it can now turn its attention to our country, eager to impose its truth here. Mexico is a vulnerable and weakened country for economic, security, and institutional reasons. The President of the United States is angry and wants to impose his will somewhere.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has recently threatened military intervention in Mexico to put an end to the drug cartels. What he is confirming with this statement is that he does not consider the handing over of 29 drug lords to be enough to be satisfied with the Mexican government’s anti-narcotics activities. For the Americans, that might have been enough years ago. But today, the demand is maximalist: either Mexico eliminates drug trafficking entirely, or they will do it, with all that that implies. And what they have announced is at stake: that the government is compromised by drug trafficking. The insinuation is obvious.
Trump’s vanity has been bruised by his confrontation with Zelensky, in which he could not impose his will. It is entirely possible that seeking to restore his image as a ruthless ruler who gets his way, he will turn his gaze to Mexico as a tasty morsel to test the strength of his words. That is the danger Mexico faces as a corollary and consequence of the quarrel between the Ukrainian and the American in the White House.
It is the danger Mexico faces due to the economic weakness that Sheinbaum inherits from López Obrador, in addition to the former president’s commitments to drug traffickers, supposedly for the sake of pacifying the country.
However, the conflict in the Oval Office exposed another weakness of Mexico. While Zelensky is received by European leaders, including King Charles of the United Kingdom, who express their unconditional support for him, Mexico is almost an international pariah. Who will express their support for Mexico in the face of Trump’s interventionist threats? CELAC? Probably Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. If Mexico is an international pariah, those countries are too, and more so. There is no sense of Latin American solidarity with Mexico while it faces US pressure. Notably, Mexico is no longer a country with a reliable and unblemished international reputation. This isolation of Mexico is another consequence of López Obrador’s six-year term. He made more enemies than friends. For this reason, the European Union has also declared the Mexican drug cartels to be terrorist organizations.
So, Mexico is a manageable opponent for Trump, unlike Ukraine. He knows it, and it is not difficult to think he will know how to act advantageously, divert attention from the “Ukrainian error,” and try to reestablish his image as a leader who can impose his will on other sovereignties. So Mexico must prepare for new pressures and demands for concessions in negotiating the non-imposition of tariffs, the internal policy of public and national security, and the structural redefinition of the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC, perhaps converted into a bilateral one with the United States and another with Canada.
For now, the dispute between Zelensky and Trump in the White House could negatively affect Mexico’s relationship with the United States. It could quickly escalate with unforeseeable consequences for both nations.
@rpascoep
Further Reading: