Antonio Navalón
In the blink of an eye – which for some seemed too little for what was intended to be achieved, and for others, the wait seemed eternal – we have reached the last year of the six-year term of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his Fourth Transformation. In a few months, not only will a new political cycle have culminated in our country – which began on July 1, 2018, and placed itself in a privileged place in the history of Mexico by achieving the highest number of votes – but it will also mean the beginning of a new course. Between mañaneras and a constant discrediting of anyone who was not on his side, López Obrador’s administration has been a true watershed in national life.
The still president of Mexico has managed to entirely modify the structures that sustained the country and, among other things, has made the word “peace” disappear from our daily vocabulary. But what is worrying is that Mexico is not an isolated case. There is no peace in the world today. If you look at any region of the world – with a few apparent exceptions – you will see that most of the world is in conflict. There is no peace in the United States. There is no peace in Europe. There is no peace in the Middle East or many parts of the African continent. But even more worrying is that there are no visible and noticeable efforts to bring about balance and harmonization among nations.
Although technically and strictly speaking, we cannot yet talk about the world being at war due to the extent of the internal polarization of countries and the growing tension that can be analyzed in each situation, it can be said that this moment is threatening and with an enormous danger. Although Europe, with the crisis between Ukraine and Russia and the Middle East with the conflict between Arabs and Jews, are technically in a situation of war, we must not forget that the European fire – as we have seen in history – is highly flammable and can spread rapidly. At this point, it is necessary to remember that wars originate – among other factors – from a territorial struggle, just as it should not be forgotten that it only takes one wrong decision or misinterpretation of a move for everything to get out of control in seconds.
The world has changed so much in the last six years that even the geopolitical and geostrategic boards have been modified. When the six-year term began in 2018, there were two clear economic powers, and they were aiming to lead the course of the world; I am referring to the United States and China. Events such as the war in Ukraine led by Russia or the impressive demographic and economic emergence of India have caused the global balance to force us to think that there are currently more than two powers capable of tipping the balance of the planet’s economic, political, and social future.
I do not want to focus on analyzing the inevitable discounting and shelling out of what has meant the modification and partly eradication of structures in Mexico. That should correspond to the intrinsic analysis of the balance made over these six years, with the correct data and without nuances when concluding. What is evident at this point is that many things have changed – not necessarily for the better – and we have reached a point where there is no choice but to face reality beyond lamenting what has happened or what should have been done.
The first step to changing or improving something is to accept the current state and situation. And just as it has been a long time since the world has been surrounded by multiple conflicts that are being triggered in parallel, we must also be aware that if there has been a time when dialogue and agendas should be focused on ensuring peace, it is now. However, we have a world in which there is talk of ceasefires, change, destruction, and modifying everything at the root. There is talk of everything…except peace.
In the case of Mexico, it is necessary to be aware that nothing will be the same no matter what happens on June 1. And I still have the feeling that in the upcoming elections, there is a real key player who is the same person who has been trying to win all his life. Curiously, that person is not the one who could win the elections and be appointed the country’s leader; instead, it is the president in office who is about to leave. What Lopez Obrador does between now and next year is of utmost relevance and will mark, to a great extent, the near future of our country. Hence, it is imperative to dedicate due analysis and study to his actions and political strategies.
At the culmination of this year, many cycles are also coming to an end, but, above all, it has been until this year that we have genuinely seen the light at the end of the tunnel of what was the most significant change that people have undergone, which was the Covid-19 pandemic. The coronavirus not only brought death, desolation, and a severe social, economic, and even political crisis, but it was able to lock us in and force us to face our realities.
Covid-19 caused every human being on the planet to lock their doors and come face to face with the reality in their own homes. For some lucky ones, this was a relief as it gave them the necessary time to recover from all the lost moments with their beloved family, but for many others, this was a real ordeal that did nothing more than bring out the darkness and sadness they face every day. For many years, many people said their dream was to get to a point where they had time to spare. The pandemic not only isolated us and pushed us to the limits of mobility and health, but it gave us that longed-for gift of time we had longed for. Oddly enough, we realized that it was not really enough.
The day will come when the experts will bring out the genuine results and consequences of what has happened since the first contagion was recorded in Wuhan in 2019. The time will come when history will judge the crimes committed by one and all and for all the injustices and wars that are being unleashed throughout the world. When that moment arrives, it is essential to look at the present and carefully analyze the immediate consequences and effects that are becoming more and more notorious and difficult to counteract.
2024 will be a year of opportunities but, above all, of changes. In the first instance, it will be a year in which the parallel elections in Mexico and the United States will be the main focus of attention. With so many issues in dispute and debate, paying attention to each side’s proposal will be exciting and essential. However, what we should focus on and demand the most is the formulation of proposals and strategies that will not only flatten the path of development but also lead to peace and harmony among societies.
There will be imperceptible changes that no one will talk about, although others will be impossible not to notice. There will be changes in how societies interact, the perception of the world and diplomacy between nations, and changes in everything. However, what is certain is that the worst will remain permeating the environment. One of these changes will also be the modification of power structures – at least in Mexico and the United States – and it will occur amid the worst of each society. One cannot live without hope. Hope is trusting that things will get better. The point is that now the list is so long and the structural changes to be made so vital that we have to agree on what things – beyond the political situation of a six-year term – must die and what things we must fight to restore.
This column will return on Sunday, January 7. While that happens, it seems that the only sensible thing to wish for and aspire to is to find – politically, economically, and socially – a space to continue living.
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