Federico Reyes Heroles
The question circulating the world is: why? What does Trump want? One of the answers lies in his recent statements: 50 countries are queuing up to negotiate. Arrogance and vanity are often more potent than restraint and self-control. Does he really not know the damage he can cause to his country, the country that has received the most Nobel Prizes in Economics (47) and which the whims of a mind govern today that many have diagnosed as sick? Well, that’s how it is. What are the symptoms, not of the individual, but of that nation?
At the end of the eighties, a hitherto unknown British historian came to Mexico. His name was Paul Kennedy. I was asked to present his most recent book: The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. The fascinating book, an international best seller, established differences from the title. It did not talk about the fall of empires, of which there are many precedents. Kennedy went through these records; he did not start in Rome, but in the pre-industrial era: Spain, China, Japan, Russia, England, and others. Kennedy returned to some of the central axes of the rise: ports, trade, armed forces, and imperial spirit. With the theoretical scaffolding already in place, the forecasts became evident. But Kennedy went further. How much did they bet on science? What was the destructive weight of ignorant bureaucracies, the excesses of the elites that ended up damaging the welfare of the people? Trump’s absurd decisions fit many of them. Trump is sick. There will always be mentally ill people. But the most profound thing is the lack of containment of the Americans to his re-election.
Trump knows he is violating many international trade rules, including the USMCA. Respect for the rules is the pillar of peaceful coexistence. This respect protected traders in the Middle Ages and was the seed of the law of nations, a remote antecedent of international law and human rights. Faced with Trump’s destructive speed, the world was stunned. A few countries have resorted to legal channels — the WTO — to defend their interests, including Mexico. Europe’s political reflexes were awakened by Zelenski’s visit to England to receive support from dozens of countries. Trump does not believe in science; we have known this for a decade. For him, there is no such thing as global warming, despite the flood of information, to use an ecological metaphor. The brutal cuts to universities and research increase the uncertainty of rationality. Breaking the historical alliances with England and Canada, with Europe, describes his vision of success: the US alone, as the great winner. But is that possible?
Being rich in an impoverished and violent country is not a good plan. Nor is being the great power in a sick, impoverished, and violent world. We live in an environment that needs to improve; only then will we be able to enjoy life to the fullest. USAID was explained – to a large extent – by this intention to democratize, bring health to areas of human disaster, and expand science for the benefit of all. Winning alone is, in reality, a great defeat. Ruination Day, The Economist headlines. If Americans cannot walk the streets of the world because of the hatred sown by Trump, they will have lost their freedom. Is that what they want?
“Don’t be weak! Don’t be stupid! Don’t be a PANICAN (a new party supported by the weak and stupid. Be strong, have grit and patience, and greatness will be the result,” was yesterday’s message. Faced with such madness, how should we react? Back to basics: Don’t fall into polarization; Mexico has avoided it. As a reflex action, turn to the protection of the law, to old and new alliances, and wait for the inevitable consequences of this madness to impact US citizens/consumers/voters.
The cracks are already there—time to wait.
