Antonio Navalón
When the history books tell how quickly the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad was overthrown, they will inevitably also have to indicate that the beginning of the end of that oppressive regime in Syria was October 7, 2023. The day Hamas – with the support of Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, and even Russia – attacked Israel, we did not know that we were descending into the ninth hell.
At that time, no one was aware of the cumulative cost of having a parallel war conflict like the one that was – and is still unfolding – in Ukraine. This conflict has been longer, costlier, and more complicated than Russia could ever have imagined. However, it is also true that Ukraine would never have been able to sustain itself or reach this point had it not been for the support of NATO members and, specifically, the United States. With the consolidation of Trump’s triumph – getting the popular vote on this occasion – it is evident that some kind of agreement will be reached, more aimed at calming Putin’s internal tensions than at offering Ukrainians the peace they long for.
Arguably, what is happening today in the Middle East began the day the UN passed, according to the Balfour Map, Resolution 181, which in 1948 gave rise to the State of Israel. On that day, Israelis saw for the first time the dawn of a new nation, their nation, but also from that day, all Israelis – until this moment – were born and grew up with the certainty that they would be surrounded by multiple enemies and with the certainty that the maintenance of their lives would cost them blood and sacrifice.
What seemed impossible was that, amid a divided world, the unknown of Trump’s return to the White House, the hegemonic struggle between the United States, Russia, and China, the economic confrontation between Chinese and Americans, and a multiplicity of simultaneous crises, a new conflict could be added that would reconfigure the geopolitical map of the Middle East.
There was a time when it seemed that the State of Israel might disappear. However, so far, the only ones who have been disappearing are its enemies. It is clear that this would not have been possible without the unconditional and sustained support of the Americans.
From this point on, no matter what happens, Israel can no longer be seen as a small territory in the Middle East that was constantly struggling to safeguard its territorial integrity. Today, Israel has established itself as one of the leading military powers in the area and the only nation that has grown out of all proportion. However, despite its proven resilience and seeming invincibility, Israel’s environment today remains as dangerous, if not more so, than before. Its enemies, most notably Hezbollah, are looking for any sign of weakness to attack. The shaping and securing of its borders remains a priority issue for Israeli national and internal security.
The downfall of Damascus affects Moscow above all and makes it clear that Turkey, because of its geographical position and regional relevance, will always have its hands free to align itself with whomever it suits. The bells are ringing in Bashar al-Assad’s allied states, Russia and Iran, but also in all the countries of the Persian Gulf, which have gained power and prosperity from the bipolar clash between the United States and Russia.
The dictatorship initiated in 1971 with the arrival of Hafez al-Assad – father of the later dictator Bashar al-Assad and a key player in the Syrian coup d’état of 1963 – had the vital backing of the Soviet Union and, later, of Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Since the al-Assad dynasty took power in Syria, it found in the Soviet Union first, and in Russia later, an ally and protector in exchange for political and geostrategic concessions. Likewise, although with less visibility, Turkey was a nation that benefited from the arrival of the Baathists in the region.
The Great Mosque of Damascus could have been a point to unify the Arab world. However, after the fall of the Ottoman Empire and the emergence of the protectorate of Palestine, the British chose to refrain from taking a gamble on Syria – a not-so-relevant player in energy terms – and preferred to focus on holy places such as Mecca and Medina. A new country was born there, Saudi Arabia, decisive in the 20th and 21st centuries thanks to its immense oil reserves.
Since the time of Saladin, it has always been known that the geopolitical structure of the Middle East had an intrinsic religious component. The announcement and future arrival of the Mahdi has always been the concern of some and the hope of others. While for Sunnis, the Mahdi is the God-guided leader who will appear before the Day of Judgment to guide Muslims to the right path and restore justice, their interpretations are not as inflexible as they are for Shiites.
The outlook for both Israel and Syria remains uncertain, especially considering the history between the two countries and the current regional landscape. An example of the tension and lack of cooperation between Syrians and Israelis is the denial of the repatriation and handover of one of the most admired Israeli figures in their history. Eli Cohen, an undercover Mossad agent, is considered one of the most effective spies in modern history and one of the most admired Israelis. Such was his efficiency that he was even considered by the then president of Syria, Amin-al Hafiz, as a possible deputy defense minister; however, before his appointment was formalized, he was discovered and publicly executed to show what is done with traitors and, subsequently, kidnapping and hiding his remains with such efficiency that almost sixty years after his death they are still unaccounted for.
Few countries have experienced such profound emigration as Syria. Since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, more than 13 million Syrians have been displaced from their homes, making it the most affected diaspora in the world. Now is the time to revive Merkel’s exemplary stance and leadership, a leader who performed admirably not only during the refugee crisis of 2015 but for most of the time she led Germany. Germany’s policy of openness and welcoming of Syrian refugees, despite the internal criticism these actions produced for her, are displays of leadership based on empathy and moral duty.
In this scenario, the bells are also ringing in Qatar, while the limitations of the United Arab Emirates are being delineated. Thus, the question arises: Can Dubai continue to be the Vienna of the 21st century amid tensions between Iran—backed by Russia and China—and Israel, supported by the United States?
Syria is a sign of the social and geopolitical earthquake that has been brewing for years but now shows its most tangible consequences. An earthquake that will bring with it a reconfiguration of the map of the area in which Iran, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia will play a vital role. After the fall of the al-Assad dynasty, the big question is who will rule Syria, or rather who will control it, and who will prevent the emergence of a new map in which Saudi Arabia, with its alliance with Israel, will become dominant?
The big problem is that the current occupants of the Syrian government, under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, are not only extremist in many ways but could multiply insecurity in the Golan Heights, Mount Hermon, or the Lebanese region bordering Israel. They could become a source of instability even greater than Iraq. In the face of this threat, Israel has decided to place missiles 40 kilometers from Damascus, ensuring not only its regional hegemony but also the ability to deploy troops rapidly. It is thus clear that the grip on Lebanon is absolute.
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