Antonio Navalón
At the crossroads of the great global balances, at this moment in time, no city arouses as much fascination or captures as much of the spotlight as Rome. Despite the unquestionable economic and financial hegemony of the Chinese giant or the emerging role of India – reflected in the recent military clash on the border with Pakistan – or so many current geopolitical and economic events, history has shown once again that everything begins and ends in Rome and that in reality all roads lead to it.
From the beginning of the conclave, cameras and smartphones relentlessly followed the cardinals’ steps along the Via della Conciliazione, the axis connecting Castel Sant’Angelo—the mausoleum that Emperor Hadrian had built for himself—with the imposing St. Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican. Curiously, for centuries, this same road served as an escape route for the Popes when their lives were in danger.
Several things will characterize this conclave, first, for its speed. This Pope, the first of the TikTok and Instagram era, was elected with a celerity that, in principle, could seem contradictory but also gives a message of certainty and security. Out of the 135 summoned, 133 cardinals – representing 71 different countries and on whom falls the great responsibility of administering one of the world’s two main and important religions – appointed Robert Francis Prevost as the new occupant of the chair of St. Peter. And they did so conscious that, after the exemplary and forceful papacy of Jorge Mario Bergoglio, it was necessary to impose a strategic and institutional rebalancing, knowing that their decision would also have an impact and repercussion on the affairs of God on Earth.
The election of Leo XIV was one of the few options that, indirectly, still offered an opportunity to sustain the leadership of the dominant empire – that is, the United States – fully aware of its structural damage, which extends beyond its borders and affects the other America. That other America that is marginalized and does not speak English, but which Leo XIV knows, albeit from a perspective as singular as that of Peru, and which embodies a genuine attempt to adapt to the 21st century.
A new era is dawning in the Vatican. Not only in terms of communication, since Leo XIV will be the first “TikTok Pope”, but also because of the stage of transition and change that is coming after the papacy of Francis I. When Francis I was elected twelve years ago, social networks were already making their presence felt, but they still lacked the omnipresence they have today. Now, the new Pontiff will have to master and have a strong presence in the new instant communication channels to connect with a global society, shape perceptions, and, ultimately, fulfill his pastoral mission in a world conditioned by algorithms.
Rome was not only the trend of the last few weeks, but it remains the geopolitical heart of an ancestral institution, expert in human weaknesses and master in the art of forgiveness, making forgiveness and mercy its main business. Despite the controversial and questionable image uploaded by the White House itself visualizing Trump as a future Pope, the election of the first American Pope had nothing to do with Trump. Was the image of Trump as pope a joke or a provocation? Probably both. History has known such extreme political solutions as the coronation of emperors. In that sense, it would not be unthinkable that someone like Trump would aspire to place himself, symbolically or strategically, at the head of an institution that, even today, retains incalculable weight.
The arrival of Leo XIV clearly marks a turning point as the first North American Pope. But, in addition to being the first Pope whose mother tongue is English, he is a leader who has also known, wept and bled with all the inequalities and problems suffered by the other America, the one that does not speak English and that for so many years has been a fundamental source of followers and members of the Catholic Church. It is a new era, and there is no room for unilateral mandates in that new era. The watchword is balance. The watchword is to restore strategy. The watchword is that the world is not yet ready for the most organized expression of Christian religiosity -the Catholics- to end up in the hands of an Asian country, as would have happened if the Pope had been Cardinal Tagle.
Even though Islam outnumbers the Catholic Church, Rome’s power remains immense. Spiritually, it remains the most influential institution on the planet. But, above all, it retains the structure, resources, and legitimacy to articulate one of the most effective forms of social action in existence. When told of the influence of Catholics and the Pope, Stalin asked: “How many divisions do they have?” For him, power was measured in tanks and soldiers. Today, after the pontificate of Karol Wojtyla, the answer to that question is obvious. John Paul II did not need armies to contribute to the collapse of communism; the power of faith, of the word, and of a moral presence that disappeared borders was enough.
Meanwhile, the world continues to fight its battles. And in this daily struggle, we cannot deceive ourselves: what is visible is not always the most decisive. Sometimes, what cannot be seen – such as faith, memory, or hope – sets the course of history. In any case, while the world strolled through the streets of Rome, while eyes, almost unwittingly, rested on the so-called Argentine Tower – which has nothing to do with Milei’s country, but everything to do with the living history of the West -, in the same place where the theater where Julius Caesar was assassinated once stood, the world continued its course. It goes on. It will go on. Because history does not stop. The stones on which Rome was built remind us that power is always vulnerable, however absolute it may seem. And that is where we must focus our attention: on which forces, influences, control structures, or political strategies will succeed in imposing themselves. Which will triumph and which will inevitably collapse? The scenario is global, but the battles are local.
In Mexico, we are fighting the mother of all battles. And it is not the fight against fentanyl or the crisis of governance, but the confrontation brewing in the justice arena. Although there are countries such as the United States, Switzerland or Bolivia in which citizens can participate in the election of certain (not all) members of their judicial system, there is no precedent or similar case in democratic systems of a legal reform of the magnitude of the one that will take place in Mexico. But what is more important is that the decision will fall into the hands of – according to my opinion and calculation – no more than 5% of the total electoral census.
It would be enough with an assembly by a show of hands, without making all that expense of printing millions of ballots, so that the democratic logic of the 4T – inspired by former President Lopez Obrador – would serve to, at least inwardly, signal that it is a revolutionary and democratic reform. “Every man for himself”, that is what living under a regime of uncertain legality represents, where – in the best case scenario – we will end up like the Count of Monte Cristo: with no real possibility of legal defense, trapped in an invisible cell, hoping to count on resistance, fortitude and the proximity of the sea to escape from what seems inevitable.
The questions that emerge about legal guarantees after this judicial reform proposal are not few, and are positioned as a firestorm over the present and the future of the Fourth Transformation. In that scenario, allies and enemies are everywhere: inside and outside the country, on the sides and above. Because it is not possible to sustain a modern economy without the confidence of foreign investment. And today, with this “revolution of the judiciary”, we are generating a reasonable, legitimate, urgent doubt: what guarantees will investors have to trust that an impartial and professional justice system will protect their assets, contracts, and rights?
Mexico’s president must understand that goodwill and a well-armed narrative in the mañaneras are insufficient. What she faces is the most complex, diverse, and powerful coalition of interests this country has faced in a long time. Touching justice not only alters the balance of powers: it shakes the backbone on which trust, investment, coexistence, and the very future of the nation are built.
In short, judicial reform is the great challenge, and through it, not only will the second floor of the 4T be modified, but the very pillars of the second floor will be dynamited.
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