Antonio Navalón
Today, it is impossible to see and analyze what is happening around the world without thinking that everything was meant to happen. Since the beginning of time, humanity has been in constant struggles and wars, and we have become accustomed to destroying in order to build. However, it is necessary to remember that when history has put us in front of challenges like the ones we are facing today, the world has been divided in two: between those who are born live and die without knowing why or what for, and those who understand the scope of the changes around them and seek to do something about it.
So many changes are happening in the world and of such magnitude that they make us think that things are no longer as they used to be and that we will not know how they will be from now on. Not since the inter-war period and the end of World War II has the world experienced such a dangerous and exciting period as the one we are going through. The American continent is facing internal instability in many countries simultaneously, which could spiral out of control at any moment. Asia continues to watch the Chinese giant and its ambitions, the emergence and consolidation of India as a great power, and the tensions and armed and commercial conflicts unleashed due to geopolitical readjustments. Europe is bleeding to death. The most important economies in Europe, Germany, and France, are entering a process of political uncertainty with a common element: despite all that has been tried by European history itself, it has not been possible to stop the advance of the extreme right.
The extreme right has grown alarmingly in Europe. Societies tend to forget their past and repeat their mistakes. History has shown that when the extreme right wins in Austria, it is only a matter of time before it also wins in Germany. So far, history itself and the lessons learned since the demise of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the fall of the Reich in 1945 have led to the creation and development of containment phenomena against a trend that, despite all that has been experienced, is dangerously repetitive.
The last elections held in France gave a role to the extreme right it had not had for a long time. Today, and even more so after the dismissal of the French Prime Minister, the French extreme right is dangerously close to power. Barnier’s dismissal marks a milestone in French politics, being the first time since 1962 that a motion of censure has dismissed a prime minister. An agreement between the French left and extreme right was enough to remove the prime minister proposed by Emmanuel Macron – who only lasted three months in office – and put his government in a very uncomfortable situation. President Macron, the inventor of the new politics, is in the middle of a highly complex scenario and will have to use all his political skills to maintain governmental stability and continue until the end of his mandate.
In February, elections will be held in Germany, a country undergoing a significant political crisis following the dissolution of the government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The weakening and crisis of the Free Democratic Party, as well as the rise of the German extreme right, have caused all eyes to be focused on what may happen in what is still—although less and less—the economic and, in a certain sense, the political capital of Europe.
In Mexico, this week will see the beginning of the popular celebration of the Guadalupe-Reyes holiday, which refers to the period from December 12, the day of the Virgin of Guadalupe, to January 6, the day of the Three Kings. A tradition that commonly isolates Mexican society from all the ills that afflict it, focusing on an uninterrupted attitude of joy and celebration. It is challenging to analyze the context in which we are without making the mistake of, first, getting scared and not understanding the messages well, and second, it is complicated to evaluate this situation without having the ability to objectively analyze all the factors that surround us and that -after the celebration of Guadalupe-Reyes- reflect our reality. Today, Mexico faces a reality marked by insecurity, unfulfilled promises, and an increasingly problematic uncertainty.
The bilateral—and even trilateral—relationship is at a critical point that will significantly define how Mexico, the United States, and Canada relate to each other from now on. However, it seems that the three countries are forgetting something crucial: despite all the problems, today, the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC remains the most important economic and trade partnership on the planet.
After four years in office of the most voted president in their history, Americans capitalized on their will by bringing back an old acquaintance – though now convicted and proven to have lied in the past – willing to restore the country’s greatness at all costs.
The formation of the new U.S. government sets an example and calls for deep reflection. First, there was Matt Gaetz, Trump’s now-retired nominee to be Attorney General, and now the candidacy of Pete Hegseth, nominee to lead the US Department of Defense, is in question. Despite being a military man with a distinguished career, having been in places like Guantanamo, Iraq, and Afghanistan, Hegseth’s candidacy is being evaluated by some tattoos that represent his ideology of white supremacy and his nationalist Christian sentiment. Although the most controversial tattoo is the one on his right arm with the motto “Deus Vult” -translated as “God wishes it so”-, which refers to the popular cry of acclamation at the declaration of the First Crusade in 1095. A slogan long used by Christian soldiers to justify their actions during the dark period of the Crusades.
For many white supremacists in the United States, that legend, “Deus Vult,” forms a central part of their ideology. By this, I do not mean – if Pete Hegseth’s nomination ultimately stands – that the next Secretary of Defense is a supremacist or a leader of the supremacists. I want to point out that we must be aware that, after Lloyd Austin, the Pentagon will once again be led by a retired military man in times when peace is more necessary than ever.
Europe is facing a war on its territory that has already claimed more than 280,000 lives. The war in Ukraine is unbelievable in how dangerous it is and what it can unleash. Keep in mind that, inevitably, Ukraine is one of the pillars of European reorganization and a nation that, since the invasion of Crimea, has been in the crosshairs of both Russia and the Western world. Now, it seems that it would be enough to erase Kyiv and the other major cities from the European tourist circuit without realizing that, at any moment, a misdirected missile could fall on Budapest, which would naturally lead to Hungary’s immediate incorporation into the war. More relevantly, it could destroy the cohesion of NATO.
Meanwhile, the Middle East bids farewell to what was once mapped out by the British Empire after World War I. The Balfour map is dead and will not return. Israel, which has been in the habit of sticking its neck out to be slaughtered for 6,000 years and has been the big loser in various political, social, and religious phenomena, is undergoing a major change. “Masada will never fall again” is the cry and oath of Israel’s army.
Masada was the last bastion of Jewish resistance against the Roman Empire. Flavius Josephus, who initially fought on the side of the Israelites, ended up being a direct advisor to Emperor Titus, who also destroyed Herod’s Temple, known as the Second Jewish Temple. After the fall of Jerusalem and the destruction of the Second Temple in the year 70, a group of rebels led by Eleazar ben Yair took refuge in the fortress. After months of resistance and knowing that defeat was inevitable, the defenders chose to commit suicide rather than be enslaved or executed. This sacrifice made Masada a symbol of resistance and heroism for the Jewish people.
Despite the almost 6,000 years of existence of the chosen people and nearly 2,000 years after the fall of Masada, the motto “Masada will never fall again” has gained special relevance. More than a year after the Hamas attacks in Israel and the start of the war in Gaza, not only can it be said that the map of the world will change and that Israel will no longer be a small place on the map, but that it is fighting the mother of all battles. As is almost always the case in the region, this war is motivated more by religious than material issues.
The recent uprising in Syria is proof of the rearrangement that the entire Arab world is undergoing, with the intelligence and strategy of the smallest state in the area at its core. Indeed, they cannot be directly compared since the United States backs Israel, and the reality is that if that support were to disappear, Israel would cease to exist in a matter of days. However, the fact is that the Israeli example of struggle and resistance is permeating elsewhere in the region.
The only clear thing is that nothing will ever be the same again. It is equally important to reflect on the axes that will allow the remaining economies to survive, recover, and reinvent themselves after these changes. It remains to be seen which nations will be able to reinvent themselves and prosper in the midst of these turbulent times affecting Europeans, Arabs, Asians, and Americans. As we begin the end of a year like no other, what can we expect in the coming year?
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