Antonio Navalón
To survive, the first thing you need to know is where are you located, what is the panorama that surrounds you, but, above all, what are the wars or conflicts that can – regardless of what is desired – take away the plans on the present, about the future and even about a part of the past. But do not give it too much thought, regardless of how it ends, when all this ends, and whatever happens with vaccines, today the world has two powers and several players around. In this sense, it is easy to think about the times when only two countries played Russian roulette to end the world. Although the confrontation was bipolar, this system made it possible to maintain a balance – albeit one of terror – on nuclear weapons between the different blocs during the Cold War era. However, with the emergence of multilateralism and new strategic players on the world map, it seems that the problems multiplied.
Today there are more nuclear weapons on the planet than ever. More and more countries have in their possession those warheads capable of causing a world catastrophe. Above all things, today, we have a battle raised over material development and corrupt capitalist ideology versus communist liberalizing ideology. A battle that, in any oversight, could cause us all to be the same and divest ourselves of everything we have. Today we are also engaged in a technological war in which we have been advancing and entering, opening the door and allowing the enemy to enter our kitchen.
The world oscillates between the debris that remains for the United States and the limits that can impose on itself – while it can – that middle empire called China. Then, at the next level, other players also have the ability to end the world. Russia, Iran, and other countries have nuclear weapons and great destruction capabilities and do not have the necessary elements to build.
The key to the world through which we are going to pass and live is divided into two great questions. The first is, how do you build the balance of power between the United States and China? The second is, what will the game be like for the other players? While these issues seek to be resolved, the United States is getting mired in its problems, which are many and which take on an increasingly dangerous tone. Among the great conflicts that Americans need to resolve are, for example, their social conflicts, their infrastructural gap, or the dismantling of their social and industrial fabrics. But, above all the previous ones, the main problem of the United States is the fact that it does not continue to be the first power in terms of capacity to build technological goods for mass consumption and to have more and more airports, highways, tunnels and bridges of the third world. The United States is mired in a gigantic and terrible battle of inequalities, keeping all its old models.
The Democratic Party does not know what it wants to be when it grows up, and at this moment, it must be asked how the ways of doing bipartisan politics will coexist. He also has to define how to guarantee the best essence of American politics from President Biden with all the adventurism that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the new congressmen symbolize, representing the majority of the current Democratic Party. While this is happening, it appears that the Republican Party has ceased to exist. The instant it decided to embrace “Führer” Trump as a single leader, the Republican Party lost its place in the game. The Republicans were – and at times, it seems that they continue – in the service of a man with an extreme ideology who does not intend to unite his country, but rather he intends to spread segregation among American citizens. A separation between the good and the bad, between those who follow a policy and have total obedience to Trump and those who – because they have a more open and inclusive policy – are simply not worthy of being Americans.
If you look at demographics, you will see that the immigration problem goes far beyond the regrettable increase in children being abandoned or not allowed into the United States. It is a problem that also goes beyond the closure of the southern border. The reality lies in the fact that both Mexico and the United States face an immense challenge in which the number of Central Americans who lose their lives on the southern border increases with each passing day. The southern border of Mexico has more complex conditions than the northern border. First, because it is a jungle and, second, because the only drain to have a better tomorrow is to move north. However, in this North, where the possibility of a better life lies, two military filters have been created so fierce that they will end up being a dominant factor in US immigration policy.
The United States cannot continue to fight against what is its first need. Americans need migrants. In California, sharecroppers alone, more than two hundred thousand migrants guarantee that they continue to have the vegetables and all the other foods grown on the tables and restaurants of much of the country. This significant number of workers could not be replaced by either Indians or Chinese and could only be covered by the common spaces set out in the USMCA.
The message has changed. The problem is no longer how to prevent migrants from arriving; the problem is who has to arrive and under what conditions. And all this happens after recognizing a country that has grown old and has no intention of going back to work. A country whose future is – as it happened at the beginning of the 20th century – in remaking all the infrastructures to be competitive with the country that has clearly won the battle in the infrastructure and development sector itself: China. In the last fifty years, the Chinese have invested three times more in cement than all the West’s cement in the last hundred years. There is no province in China that today does not have a better airport or similar conditions to the John F. Kennedy in New York. The tunnels that run through the Yangtze are new. The bridges are new. Everything is new in China. The only old thing is ideology, Communism.
The United States was the country that led the 20th century. China is the leading nation of the 21st century. America represents the victory of democratic values and the assurance of the survival of the free world. What Francis Fukuyama really wanted to say in his book called “The End of History and the Last Man” is that, in the end, the best Capitalism is Communism. We have lost the battle, not for ideology; we have lost the battle against work and the formation of generations. As a consequence, we have societies wallowing in leisure and without having to work. Companies based on speculation in the service sector without wanting to get their hands dirty, go down to the mines, or build the roads. We are in the hands of those who have developed the technology, have the money, and, furthermore – without anyone noticing – they are gradually buying Africa and Latin America.
The problem with China is not its nuclear warheads or its military. Not even the enormous imperialist temptation that could arise at any moment and endanger the Chinese world. The great temptation of the Chinese is not to understand that they have to help create a balance of power that also defends them against their own success. Of all the wars that China has won, the worst, the most terrible, and the one that places it in the worst conditions is that of the coronavirus. Whether or not Covid-19 was the product of an accident, the truth is that it came from China. But in reality, knowing where it came from is of little importance, what does have value is that China is a society that – thanks to its absolute control over its society – has managed to demonstrate that to be rich and happy is not only possible by being a democrat, but that also a Communist Party can keep a society cohesive. Even by force, the Chinese have shown control over their society and have invested the profits of their labor in making a country that – train to train, highway to highway, and airport to airport – is superior to the West.
Whatever goes to us or what has to happen to us will happen to us in the middle of both powers. That is why it is essential to start having programs to be as well prepared as possible. Without an opening towards the Pacific and strengthening ties with China, Mexico’s position will remain extremely weak. Not only will it be for the political and ideological reasons of the current President, but basically because we need the financing, strength, and geostrategic fit to grow and become a modern country. In Mexico, revolutions are recurrent and are always pending. We have been waiting for a hundred and fifty years of revolution. However, the only revolution that can make it the last and the one that really changes the country is the development revolution, the infrastructure revolution. And for that, it is necessary to combine our interests with the United States, but, above all, to establish a policy of openness towards China.
When the vaccine war slows down – which I think is already starting to happen – when normalcy comes, in whatever form, I hope we’ve been smart enough to make the right choice. I hope that when all this happens, Mexico has chosen to have continued working and to develop a world of interests and truths that are no longer sculpted in fire by the gods. And it is that, in the middle of this game of thrones, neither the United States is a safe place, nor is it the only one.
