Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
It is impossible to minimize what the electoral contest for the governorship of the State of Mexico means for the national political parties and the presidential elections of 2024. Today, more than ever, this state election represents the sounding of the bell for the forces in confrontation and their capacities to use or resist all the legitimate or vile instruments of politics.
The President of the Republic will try to use all the tricks, gimmicks, and vileness contained in his very personal Manual of the Business of Politics to twist the electoral result in favor of his candidate. And he will need all that repertoire due to the weakness of his candidate, marked by corruption and ineffectiveness. It is interesting to reflect on the root causes that led him to nominate her and not others who would have a better chance of winning and governing better. It is important because the political methodology motivating the President today lies in these reasons. First, he thinks that, with his endorsement, he can make any candidate win, regardless of the candidate’s shortcomings. He is overconfident.
On the other hand, he chooses a deliberately weak candidate so that she owes him everything for her victory, soul included. That is to say, he seeks the loyalty and total submission of the character, something he would not be able to ensure if the candidacy went to someone else. He especially does not want candidates with their own political power.
Will he apply these same criteria when choosing Morena’s candidate for the Presidency of the Republic? Most probably, and even more so.
The State of Mexico has the largest electoral roll in the country. In 2018 AMLO won the State of Mexico and Mexico City, the second largest electoral roll in the Republic. And therefore, he won the Presidency. For 2024 things are not so clear. In the mid-term elections of 2021, the coalition Va Por México, composed of PAN, PRI, and PRD, won more votes in the State of Mexico than the alliance of parties with Morena and recovered the majority of municipalities and local and federal deputies. In the same election of 2021, the same opposition won more votes than Morena in Mexico City and most of the mayoralties.
If this dynamic continues, the numerical perspective would indicate that in 2024 Morena and its presidential candidacy would lose both entities. In that case, it would be almost impossible for Morena to justify, numerically and politically, having won the Presidency of the Republic if it loses those two entities. Especially if it also loses Jalisco and Nuevo Leon, which is highly probable.
Therefore, it is an imperative political-electoral necessity for AMLO to win the governorship of the State of Mexico and operate the elections of 2024. To do so, he must operate in all directions.
He must prevent, as a priority, the unity of the opposition parties. Additionally, he must avoid the division of Morena in the state, especially internal divisions within the Texcoco Group. And it wants to intimidate the Atlacomulco Group so that it does not operate in favor of the PRI and the opposition.
Three strategic objectives are to win the territory and open the way to 2024. He must divide the opposition by ensuring that MC goes his way and get Enrique Vargas from PAN to run as an independent candidate. He must pressure the leader of the Texcoco Group to withdraw his threat of “dedicating himself to take care of his family”, which is a euphemism to say that he will not support the President’s choice. And to nullify Grupo Atlacomulco, he threatens Enrique Peña Nieto with a judicial investigation, pretending that the investigation comes from an “autonomous” prosecutor’s office.
In the end, the Presidential Manual looks pretty flimsy, considering what is at stake. The opposition also understands what is at stake and intends to win the state, as it won last year. The first train wreck will be in the State of Mexico. The second in 2024. And the enemies are digging their trenches.
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