Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The government consistently claims that conditions are improving, yet public perception suggests otherwise. Public opinion polls tend to identify and normalize this “contrast” of opinions regarding public affairs. Since time immemorial, when polls find that there is “approval” of the federal executive branch, they also reveal disapproval of many of its policies and programs. This “disconnect” between personal approval and programmatic disapproval has been recognized but never explained.
In Mexico City, we had an example of this when the head of government, Clara Brugada, asked the media to “tone down” the crime news, implying that the media was to blame for the public’s perception of insecurity. Brugada presented data that, in her view, demonstrated a significant reduction in public insecurity. However, she could not explain why the city’s citizens did not share her optimism. She offered her own version: it is the fault of the media, which exaggerates isolated incidents of violence in the city.
Another case involving the head of the Mexico City government was recently reaffirmed. She again criticized the media for failing to report positive news about the environmental improvements that, according to her, her government is implementing. Immediately after these critical remarks about the press, the Mexico City government had to declare an environmental contingency due to elevated air pollution levels in the metropolitan area. The contingency remains in place at the time of writing.
From the seat of power, both polls and presidential “approval” ratings have been used to justify the policies and actions of the current government. But here is the disconnect. In addition to the president’s approval, polls consistently indicate disapproval of her public management in the areas of security, violence, missing persons, the economy, health, education, and corruption. All polls indicate approval of policies that distribute funds through social programs. That should come as no surprise.
The disconnect arises when attempts are made to justify the government’s performance, despite evidence of public disapproval of its public policies. Perhaps that attempt at deception or justification is not the worst part of the matter. The worst happens when elected officials are the first to believe their own lies. When that happens, they tend to launch media campaigns that insist on their lies, affirm the veracity of their data, and accuse those who do not believe them of being instigators or promoters of social division.
But President Sheinbaum is not far behind in promoting distorted views of reality. In her eagerness to demonstrate to the U.S. government that the problem of organized crime and violence is under the control of the federal government, she makes assertions that do not correspond to reality. Neither to statistical reality nor to factual reality.
In a recent morning press conference, President Sheinbaum highlighted the 42% reduction in intentional homicides so far during her administration and denied that her government seeks to “hide” the disappeared and missing persons. She emphasized that this figure represents an average of 36 intentional homicides per day and assured that January 2026 is the January with the fewest intentional homicides since the beginning of the 4T governments. She also criticized the press for failing to report her favorable data adequately. This complaint to the press came alongside the killing of engineers in a mine in Sinaloa and the discovery of a truck full of bodies in Sonora. All due to organized crime. Who else?
The National Urban Public Safety Survey (ENSU), published on January 23, 2026, by INEGI, illustrates a public perception that is completely at odds with the president’s figures. It shows that 63.8% of the country’s population perceives insecurity, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous survey. In addition, 59.3% of Mexicans believe that the security situation will “remain “the same or get worse in the near future.
The agency TResearch International, which keeps accurate records of intentional homicides in the country, contradicts the president. While 94 intentional homicides per day were confirmed during López Obrador’s six-year term, so far during Sheinbaum’s six-year term, an average of 72 intentional homicides per day have been recorded, using official data.
In polls, Sheinbaum is experiencing the same pattern as Brugada. In the latest El Financiero poll, the president receives an approval rating of over 60%. Still, she is disapproved of by 76% of respondents on corruption, 57% on security, and less than 20% approve of her efforts to combat crime. More than 80% of those surveyed disapprove of her. This confirms the usual contradiction: high approval ratings on a personal level, but overwhelming rejection of her public policies.
Incidentally, polls are beginning to appear that have presidential approval in the 58%–62% range. If we were to examine consistency between polls on presidential approval and evaluations of her public policies, the expected results would fall within that range. I am not mentioning the international polls that have Sheinbaum hovering around 43%.
The El Financiero poll data confirm that citizens are highly concerned about the country’s direction. Combining the data from INEGI’s ENSU with the El Financiero poll, we arrive at a single conclusion: the majority of citizens live in fear and do not feel that the state is fulfilling its constitutional duty to protect the lives and property of Mexicans. In fact, it would appear that the state has failed in its duty.
The most worrying thing is that, after all, the state blindly believes in its own narrative and does not accept any other. So much so that workshop blindness prevails among those in power, and these perceptions are their sole reference point for the state’s actions. It also wants society as a whole to acquire and accept its own workshop blindness, so as not to see reality.
However, as the ENSU illustrates, the public is not fooled and clearly sees the crisis Mexico is experiencing. All that is needed is for the authorities to see it as well, starting with the President of the Republic. They need to leave the workshop and open their eyes to the street. The blindness of those in power, hijacked by the web of their own interests, endangers Mexico. Their blindness is yet another serious risk to the country’s national security.
@rpascoep
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