Federico Reyes Heroles
Judicial Independence in Mexico: A Crisis Exposed
“The judicial election in Mexico does not meet international standards that guarantee the independence, efficiency, impartiality, and transparency of the judiciary. All international protocols were violated.” The summary of the OAS’s preliminary ruling is as brief as it is devastating. What now?
Thousands of lines of text, radio, and television interviews. Leading Mexican jurists explained it a thousand times. Warnings also came from around the world. But nothing changed; we would be the most democratic country in the world—pure arrogance. Lie upon lie, they demonized the Supreme Court justices, when 85% of lawsuits are resolved at the local level.
Ordinary citizens are the most affected. The United Nations recommends allocating between 2 and 6% of GDP to justice. The OECD recommends a minimum of 1.7%. Impunidad/cero reports 0.64% for security and justice (How much does Mexico spend on security and justice? by A. Martínez Verdugo). For some time now, consulting firms have been advising large companies to: a) not invest in Mexico; b) if expansion is required, do so in partnership with a company that can litigate abroad; c) at a minimum, secure international arbitration.
The results of the reform are becoming apparent: the productivity of local judicial powers has plummeted. There are no rulings, and complainants are waiting. Their investments are affected.
Economic collapse is no exaggeration: Baja California, B.C.S., 66%; Colima, 80%; some entities are spared: Hidalgo, Guanajuato, Campeche, with around 10% (La Razón, 11/11/2025). Chaos, four months after coming into force. The markets are ahead of the curve. Gross fixed investment has been falling for a year. What long-term investor would venture into a country without a judiciary? OAS dixit. Common sense, too. Forecast growth for 2025: optimists, 0.9%; pessimists, 0.5%, i.e., below population growth. Seven years on. At the same time, the IMF, the ogre that tells us our truths, is once again adjusting Mexico’s credit line downward. “Economic activity in Mexico remains weak, constrained by necessary fiscal consolidation and still-restricted monetary policy, as well as by the negative effect of trade tensions.” It’s very clear: either fiscal consolidation or crisis.
But self-deception rides on. Investment in AI will save us! Now it turns out that the new educational assessments of the 4T, graded by the teachers themselves, contradict the data from Inegi. Oaxaca, Guerrero, Chiapas, and Michoacán, with the most significant historical lag, suddenly become the leaders!
They could rectify this, yes. In fact, there is a shift in security. It seems that the National Anti-Corruption System will be reviewed. We already had a national framework (the National Institute for Access to Information and local institutes). More distractions: the Generation Z march was instigated by the “right.” A lot of “right.” There is no security, period. Saturday was a watershed moment.
There is no one so blind as…those who refuse to see.
Further Reading: