Angel Jaramillo Torres
The theocratic regime of Shiite clerics in Iran has never been closer to collapse than it is now. According to available information, the only reason Ayatollah Khamenei is still alive is that Trump asked Netanyahu’s government not to assassinate him, as his intelligence services know his whereabouts, second by second.
Despite the best efforts of the Iranian army, its missiles have not really penetrated, with the required force, the Iron Dome, the Israeli defense system that protects it from air attacks. Although the Iranian government has not yet played all its military cards, its ability to react is narrowing day by day. What is being discussed now is how the Israeli-American coalition will attempt to destroy the Fordow nuclear plant. This time, there seems to be a willingness on the part of Washington and Tel Aviv to carry out this action effectively.
Given this, it is valid to ask what might happen if the Iranian government is decapitated.
Since the current regime is a combination of theocracy and statocracy (military government), the options could be as follows:
The return of the Pahlavi dynasty, which was overthrown by Ayatollah Khomeini and his group in 1979. Although he has a group operating in his favor and he himself has the desire to rule Iran, Reza Cyrus Pahlavi is not necessarily loved by a large part of the population, which has been educated not to appreciate his legacy.
A second option is that a movement, perhaps promoted by the West, could form within Iranian society to establish a liberal, republican, and secular democracy in Iran. Although this would undoubtedly be the best outcome for Iran, there does not appear to be a robust effort to make this happen. This does not mean, however, that it cannot occur in the near future.
Thirdly, Iran may enter a period of great anarchy, a kind of return to the state of nature prefigured by Hobbes, where human life is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short. Since no country is an island, there would be interventions by regional and global powers to gain advantage from the situation. The ultimate result of this would most likely be the establishment of a new theocratic or secular tyranny.
The fourth possibility is that the Western powers, together with Israel, establish a UN-legitimized mandate. The problem with this arrangement is that it would most likely face widespread popular rejection.
If the Pax Theocratica, which has lasted almost 50 years in Iran, has been a hellish problem for the civilized world, the Iran that emerges from the eclipse of the Ayatollahs could be a nightmare. But here we are.
Ángel Jaramillo Torres . PhD in Political Science from the New School for Social Research in New York, and a member of the SNI. He is the author of Leo Strauss on Nietzsche’s Trasimachus-Dionysian Socrates: Philosophy, Politics, Science, and Religion in the Modern Age and co-editor (with Marc Benjamin Sable) of Trump and Political Philosophy: Leadership, Political Skill, and Tyranny. He contributes to American Affairs Journal, The National Interest, and Letras Libres. He is a columnist for El Economista.
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