Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The political success of the populist is achieved when he identifies the common enemy that incites his followers to feverish and fanatical paroxysm. These objects of hatred are diverse and even some unexpected: corrupt politicians, judges, bourgeois, Jews, Muslims, foreigners, imperialists, journalists, intellectuals, scientists, and other tribes or races. The object of hatred also serves the politician to deflect the scrutiny of citizens about his intentions to perpetuate himself in power, with or without elections.
Like Trump and Putin, López Obrador has his list of hate objects, all accumulated over time. In Tabasco, he accused the government of electoral fraud. He accused former President Salinas of heading the mafia of power. Then he hated President Calderón. He then broke with his PRD comrades and now seeks to destroy the party he abandoned. Then he hated Peña’s structural reforms and, now in power, he hates almost everyone, with the honorable exception of “the poor”. And all to consolidate his control over the Presidency of the Republic.
This week he announced that the United States wanted to attack Mexico and called on all Mexicans to enlist for “the defense of the homeland” together with the Armed Forces. His tone of voice in that speech reflected fear, extreme stress, and a notorious exaltation of his state of mind. As if there was a real danger around the corner.
I saw that same frantic mood among Cuban officials when I was ambassador to Cuba. Suddenly they would announce to me that they would be in the trenches all week because they had information that the United States was preparing an attack on the island during the next few days or over the weekend. I asked them if they were for real, as I considered them serious officials. They solemnly assured me that everything indicated that an attack was imminent. I was surprised by their conviction about the moment’s danger (the same phenomenon happened twice during my mission in Cuba), since I did not see any indication that it was true. A political analysis of the moment did not support such a hypothesis. Obviously, the invasions did not occur.
Then, why were they demonstrating supposed preparedness for an external force? Because insisting on the external enemy is one of the ways that allowed the Cuban regime to reinforce its internal legitimacy and, at the same time, ensure its control over its political cadres and the population in general.
Listening to Lopez Obrador recently warning about a possible U.S. invasion of Mexico, I could not help but think about the reasons that motivated the Cuban regime to make similar and equally reckless and false statements. Because López Obrador’s statement is a lie that requires an explanation.
Everything indicates that AMLO fears strong action by the United States, but not in the form of an invasion. Rather, he seems to be anticipating strong evidence of complicit dealings between his government, important officials, elements of the Army, family members of the President, and the Presidential House itself with drug trafficking at its highest levels.
The U.S. frontal offensive against Los Chapitos and the Sinaloa cartel has a reason. U.S. intelligence agencies assess this as the epicenter of the possible alliances of the government and the Morena party with drug trafficking. Even the President himself has made this clear with his discreet visits and supposedly without the attention of outside eyes in his activities and meetings. The opacity of these meetings simply reinforces suspicions about the president’s activities.
The problem comes when the DEA announces that it has informants participating in meetings where the President may have been. That raises the tension and presidential anguish to the maximum. The presidential denial will obviously follow any revelation.
But will his denial be credible in the face of the accumulation of evidence? It is not clear that launching his troops against the U.S. “object of hate” will yield the support he needs.
Presidential angst suggests that something is seriously wrong.
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