Luis Rubio
In these moments of profound political and economic convulsion, it is impossible to see the world without reference to relevant historical moments, from Edward Gibbon’s “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” to the multiple stories of the beginning and end of the Cold War. Among these are numerous calls for the potential revival of the “Grand Game,” referring to the long-standing 20th-century conflict between the Russian and British empires through the 19th century. Two modern versions of that era can be found: one, started by Paul Kennedy in 1987, who wrote his famous book “The Rise and Fall of Great Powers,” an invitation to think about the risks that the United States was facing as a superpower, almost literally days before the collapse of the Soviet Union (and long before anybody saw China as a relevant actor in the world arena). Similar arguments have been made by numerous authors since then, albeit now in the context of the China-US conflict, such as Graham Allison’s “Destined for War,” whose subtitle betrays the core argument: “Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”
In these days of rest, but of huge effervescence originating from the American President, here goes some of my recent readings on the moment that we are living through.
The propensity to fall into a new Cold War seems inevitable. Numerous books have warned of the risk, while others seem to promote it. However, only one of those I read devotes itself to analyzing and studying the factors that could drive it in that direction, as the author tries to understand the rationality that animates both Americans and Chinese. The sound analysis, combined with the author’s Russian origin, conveys a unique quality to the book by Dimitry Alperovitch, “World on the Brink.”
In To Run the World, Sergey Radchenko seeks to elucidate the psychology behind the process of decision-making in the Kremlin during the post-war era. How to actually run the world was the objective through the Cold War. The author analyzes the distinct moments of this era within the Soviet government, explaining the logic behind military interventions, the evolution of Soviet leadership from Stalin until Gorbachev, and the many attempts (and failures) to defeat the West.
In Rebellion, Robert Kagan analyzes the political and social dynamics, as well as the risks to American society, that characterized the polarization. His central argument is that the Americans confront the dilemma of building an integrated and multiracial society. His point of departure is that Trump has been the most recent politician of many in history, who, since the Civil War in the middle of the 19th century, have used racism to advance their cause. It is not the economy that is the issue, says Kagan, but the preservation of a white society, even though that fight has long been lost.
Marc-William Palen puts the world upside down. In his studio of free trade, Pax Economica, he breaks with all dogma and preconceptions. His general argument is very simple and straightforward: trade liberalization was always a revolutionary idea of the Left, starting with Marx himself. It was conceived of as a plan of liberalization against the militarism and imperialism rampant in the 19th century, bringing together socialists, internationalists, radical liberals, feminists, and Christians. Trade without barriers (although with some supranational regulations) was conceived as a way to advance the interests and needs of the poorest and most disadvantaged people. Today, Palen concludes, the de facto alliance between the extreme Right and the extreme Left threatens not only free trade, but above all the possibility of eliminating poverty in the world.
Ruchir Sharma published “What Went Wrong With Capitalism,” an ambitious book that argues the world has been distancing itself from the virtues of capitalism by trying to protect the rich and the poor, the middle class and workers. Ever-larger budgets are intended to reduce uncertainty, a natural component of the economic process. All this translates into ever larger expenditures to pay for the growing propensity to incur unacceptable risk in the financial realm, as well as in real estate and other areas. Instead of promoting innovation, ever heavier governments threaten future well-being. Essential reading.
Kevin Rudd, Australia’s former Prime Minister and an expert on China, a country where he lived, studied, and whose language he is fluent in, has written several books about that nation. One, which I commented on a year ago, is titled ‘The Avoidable War,’ referring to the conflict between the United States and China, but also taking a stand vis-à-vis Allison’s book, which I mentioned earlier. This year, he published a monumental study On Xi Jinping, about the thoughts and policies of the Chinese President. In the era of Trump, this book makes it possible to better understand the political dynamics that characterize the interaction between the two powers and at least some of the areas of conflict that transcend the strictly economic.
@lrubiof
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