Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The recent elections closed the cycle of state processes before the presidential race in 2024. The results are bittersweet. The confrontation between forces promises a dirty war of prolonged and profound consequences for Mexico. The race’s outcome will define whether the country falls into authoritarianism or succeeds in consolidating its democratic institutions.
The balance of recent state elections illustrates the problems ahead.
Blaming the governor for the defeat of Va Por México in the State of Mexico reflects the pettiness of the parties’ leadership in that coalition. Instead of placing themselves in a position of self-critical reflection, starting with the low citizen participation and the little interest created by their campaign proposals, their easy explanation has been to blame others. Consequently, they also seek solace in the mechanical summation of the electoral results of Edomex and Coahuila, convincing themselves that they reflect a Mexico split in half.
But not finding the “adequate language” for the campaign in the State of Mexico should worry us a lot. Alejandra del Moral legitimately tried a discursive route in the campaign. She did not want to carry out a campaign of verbal virulence against Morenismo and its candidate under the argument that polarization cannot be fought with more polarization. However, combativeness mobilizes more social sectors than imaginable, precisely in times of polarization. Destructive polarization is indeed the privileged instrument of López Obrador and his party. But the other side of the aisle is deeply wounded and besieged, looking for redress for its positions. And it knows that this is not achieved by simply turning the other cheek.
The argument of the Va Por México coalition in the State of Mexico has certain parallels with the logic and thinking that underlies the Obradorist policy of “hugs, not bullets”. López Obrador’s idea of getting along nicely with organized crime, tolerating it, and expecting it to behave orderly. That happened in the 1980s when Manuel Bartlett designed the Mexican State’s relationship with the Guadalajara cartel through the Federal Security Directorate. What happened is that, with the advent of democracy in Mexico, that model of an authoritarian and obscure State that is not accountable for its businesses and complicities came to an end, and the possibility of that “mutually beneficial negotiation” ended up being unfeasible. In an open and democratic society, the relationship with organizations that act against the rule of law is impossible to manage, let alone justify. That is why the “hugs, not bullets” policy is in ruins, and its failure is there for all to see.
With this in mind, the Va Por Mexico coalition must figure out the best narrative to win the 2024 elections. That narrative lies somewhere between an aggressive attack on all things Morenista, without mercy and taking no prisoners, but also to offer Mexico a tangibly better future than the apocalypse AMLO has built during the six years of his presidency. It is a complex middle ground, but it must be created. One conclusion about the campaign in the State of Mexico is that this equilibrium point was not found. It was attempted, without a doubt, but it was so unsuccessful that not even all the Va Por México coalition supporters felt the “historic” need to go out and vote. It was not urgent, vital, or necessary. The narrative presented failed to convey that urgency.
It must be recognized that there were many mistakes on this side. It cannot be blamed exclusively on the opponents. Of course, they operated a State election! But they organized their transgressions very well. We have to recognize that, at least. Proof of this is that there are practically no contestable traces of the fraudulent act. They moved structures from all over the country, governors, municipal presidents from neighboring states, and registered voters from other entities (they spoke of at least 70 thousand voters from abroad). Despite this, no strong citizens’ movement is protesting against electoral fraud or Morena in the State of Mexico. Nor is there an anti-fraud movement in Coahuila. The notoriously low voter turnout gives a reasonably reliable picture of where the head of Mexican society is at.
It was an election of the party machinery. And Morena showed more strength than the opposition coalition. That fact deserves a reflection on what awaits us in 2024. And it is not to adopt a defeatist posture. No. It is a matter of realism about the nature of the war that will be faced in 2024 to design the necessary antibodies to balance the battlefield.
One of the essential lessons from the famed Sun Tzu’s book The Art of War is that to succeed in war, it is critical to know the enemy thoroughly. How he thinks, his psychology, strengths and weaknesses, his ways of fighting, the routes and methods of supplying his army with weapons and food, his internal contradictions, his most common tactics and strategies, and, finally, his habits. Knowing everything there is to know about the enemy, without prejudice or blindness, is the beginning of the process of defeating him.
And, of course, that vast knowledge allows one’s own army to prepare to confront and defeat the enemy, sometimes even based on deceit and misleading. Knowing the enemy enables the good general to prepare his army to engage with strategies adapted to the traditional ways of the enemy, superiority in numbers but lacking the flexibility of the tactics of a flexible army and more adapted to the knowledge of what the enemy will foreseeably do.
Ukraine is the modern example of how a smaller army with less firepower but with strategies and tactics of mobility and deception was able to contain and stop an invading enemy much more significant in numbers and firepower. Moreover, the Ukrainian government mobilized its people with a tremendous social consensus against the invaders. Ukraine is a living example of applying the teachings of the Art of War.
It is precisely because of Sun Tzu’s lessons that it is necessary not to deceive oneself about one’s own defeats but much less about one’s weaknesses. Self-deception is the prelude to a greater defeat. The experience of the State of Mexico should serve as a lesson on what not to do or repeat. And it opens windows of opportunity for alternative routes. There is much to learn from that election, but initially, the important thing is not to deceive oneself about who is responsible for one’s own defeat. The responsible party is oneself, not others. The other factors are all the elements that were not analyzed properly. And it was definitely not understood correctly how the enemy was operating. Proof of this is that there is little evidence of its methods to inflate his vote. Let us be sure that the enemy also learned to operate surreptitiously to outvote the opposition.
Those methods are the ones they will apply in 2024. How did the ground operators work to pressure the beneficiaries of social programs to vote for Morena? What were the Morenista’s coordination with organized crime and the pressure on voters? What role did the agents of other entities-governors, legislators, mayors, etc. play in the final result? Were all the ballot boxes covered? Did public money oil the election to buy votes? How were bogus voters from other states mobilized? What is the impact of the Morena brand and the AMLO brand?
These and other elements will play in the 2024 election in favor of Morena and its candidates. The playing field is objectively not even. Therefore, the opposition’s strategy must be how to face this uneven floor to render it inoperative. This is achieved by knowing the enemy in depth and mobilizing all members of the opposition army with a solid, spirited, and tough shared narrative against the enemy, with internal unity and specific strategies and tactics to contain, deceive and confuse the enemy, in addition to having a long and deep arm inserted within society so that it is the citizenship of all social strata that is mobilized in favor of the democratic cause. That is to say, it must foster a social mood favorable to the cause.
There is no time to lose. The tasks ahead are exposed. Let self-criticism be relentless and generous to turn every problem into an opportunity to understand and solve something, always looking ahead. Now come the great definitions: will there be a power grab or democratic consolidation?
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