Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
Ukrainian generals, led by Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of the Ukrainian army’s Joined Chiefs of Staff, report that Putin’s Russia is preparing a major offensive against their country, probably in early January, mid-January, or February at the latest. Their intelligence sources, both their own and those of intelligence and security agencies in the US, Britain, France, Spain, and Israel, indicate that preparations for a new invasion of Ukraine from various parts of Russia and probably Belarus are developing rapidly.
This information was made public in a lengthy interview with The Economist magazine, released this week. In a pragmatic and defiant tone, Zaluzhny makes it clear that despite the harsh winter, Ukrainian troops will not reduce their tactical and strategic moves against Russian troops on their territory.
He says that part of Putin’s plan could be to try to retake Kyiv after his failed attempt in February this year. This time, it would include a new component: an invasion from Belarus, a neighbor of Ukraine and Russia and Putin’s strategic ally.
Such an attempt would reinforce Putin’s intention to take control of the entire country, not just the four provinces he has declared to be part of Russia. In other words, Putin seems determined to extend and deepen his war of conquest of another country in contravention of all international laws on respect for nations’ sovereignty and territorial integrity.
In recent days Putin convened his entire army command in Moscow to, it is assumed, give his instructions on how they should proceed to initiate and carry through the invasion of Ukraine. The Russian attacks on Ukrainian water and power installations, using Iranian missiles and drones, have been a strategy to demoralize the Ukrainian people and soften Ukrainian military defenses in the run-up to Russia’s renewed assault on Ukraine.
According to Russian military documents captured by the Ukrainians, Putin would be willing to sacrifice 300,000 troops to win the war and conquer Ukraine. He apparently believes that his historical legacy depends on the outcome of this war. He is not wrong.
In the voice of their highest military command, the Ukrainians are in a position to continue attacking Russian positions in the occupied territories. At the same time, they are preparing to face a new Russian offensive from several directions. To this end, their requirements for more weapons, tanks, missiles, and ammunition are their priority today. Trips to meet with NATO leaders have served to define military strategies in the face of the challenges presented by the confrontation between Western and Russian weaponry. It is an interesting part of the war that will serve war analysts worldwide. The war in Ukraine has become a laboratory where Russians and the West are testing new and old strategies, along with new and ancient weapons, for their usefulness in the world of new wars. The wars of the future and how they will be fought.
One of the weapons taking center stage in this war is the drone, both for espionage, attack, and rearguard defense. So are guided and geolocation-accurate missiles. Also, vehicles that are used to launch rockets and quickly change position so as not to be attacked when the enemy detects them. Such a war requires a great deal of mobility and permanent access to the internet to know the enemy’s movements and to define the targets to attack. Command centers, far from the front line, are essential for launching precise attacks based on information provided by soldiers on the front line and on information obtained from satellites. For example, Ukraine is aware of all the trench weaving that the Russians have dug around the southern part of Kherson in an attempt to defend their supply lines of weapons, ammunition, and food from Crimea. This is information obtained by satellite intelligence. Ukraine used the same information to learn that a significant command of the Wagner Group mercenaries was assembled in a building in the occupied city of Melitopol, and Ukrainian missiles subsequently destroyed the building. There are no public reports on the outcome of the attack.
The characteristics of the wars of the future are being defined in Ukraine. The hatred and savagery are the same as in any war since the beginning of humankind. But the destructive power is new and should alarm us.
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