Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
Now comes electoral reform. According to Sheinbaum, it is to adapt the “electoral model” to the ‘current’ circumstances of democracy and the people. To develop the “necessary electoral model” that her government will propose, Sheinbaum appointed an old Stalinist, a faithful believer and reproducer of the “Soviet electoral model,” to be in charge. What could go wrong?
The hints and outlines we have heard, in bits and pieces, of what the president wants or considers to be a new “electoral model” for Mexico, represent something very similar to the Mexico envisioned and promoted by the 4T. There will be no big surprise.
First, according to the 4T and the president, Mexico requires that Morena maintain a qualified majority in both houses of Congress. Only then, they say, can “the people” be fully represented. Thus, they assure us, the majority will be in control of the country’s direction, and minorities, by definition perverse and anti-national, will be able to do nothing but exercise their democratic right to kick and scream. To ensure a qualified majority, the 4T needs to reduce the number of threats to obtain the desired number of seats. To this end, the option of completely eliminating multi-member districts is being considered, or limiting their number so that they are simply a fly in the soup.
It is also necessary to reduce the internal functioning of the National Electoral Institute (INE) and limit its powers. Anti-government elements must be dismissed, transforming it into a semi-professional body, eliminating the civil service career path for staff, and making it dependent on the Ministry of the Interior. The general criterion of eliminating autonomous bodies that act independently and with their own budget will be applied. This will be a 180-degree change in the character and role of the electoral body.
Thirdly, the aim is to tie the so-called Revocation of Mandate (Recall) with the midterm elections. Constitutionally, the Revocation of Mandate is an exercise that takes place one year after the midterm elections, so as not to mix the presidential figure with the election of deputies. The exceptional elections for the Revocation of the Mandate and Judges, Magistrates, and Justices, all inventions of the 4T, have not aroused significant social interest and lack legitimacy due to low citizen participation. There was an 18% turnout in the Revocation of the Mandate and 13% in the election of the Judiciary.
The idea of tying the Mandate Revocation to the midterm election for federal deputies is to achieve two objectives. On the one hand, it seeks to enable more votes for Morena by using the presidential figure on the ballot. On the other hand, it aims to avoid a presidential humiliation in 2028 with a very low turnout, as happened to AMLO in 2022, undermining the presidential figure on the eve of the 2030 presidential elections.
These are the three central ideas of an electoral reform promoted by Morena. One, reduce the number of deputies to ensure a greater likelihood of maintaining a qualified majority. Two, establish iron-fisted government control over the INE, as the electoral body responsible for counting votes. And finally, bring forward the Revocation of the Mandate to help Morena obtain more votes and, at the same time, protect the presidential figure. Everything is designed to ensure that the Mexican state can direct and guide the elections and, obviously, define the results in favor of the ruling party.
The Presidential Commission created to draft an electoral reform proposal already knows what it has to do. These three ideas are its backbone. The person responsible for making the proposal simply has to dust off his Soviet manuals and get to work. It seems that there is a direct line of thought between Stalin and Sheinbaum.
@rpascoep
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