Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The recall was the rehearsal where AMLO tested how much resistance would be against fraud in 2024. The illegalities were so many and so prodigious that he, his cabinet, and the entire Morena party were seeking to normalize the phenomenon of violations of the law and the Constitution. And he was also seeking to get society used to the inevitability of an imposition.
But the recall exercise also served him to study INE’s resilience to the onslaught of criticism and its weaknesses. The reduction of the electoral body’s budget was to get society used to an institute weakened in its functions, scope, and credibility. Indeed it discovered that the best way to deal with INE is to reduce its budget, given the resistance and difficulties to achieving its total demolition.
It was important for AMLO to measure the true extent of the opposition force and its possible limits or possibilities of growth. On the other hand, it was also a laboratory to know the scope of the opposition’s call for non-voting or active abstention. What portion of the 72% of citizens who did not go to the polls support a change of government in 2024? Undoubtedly, the point will be of great controversy among the various sides of the conflict. However, hypothetically, it is possible to posit that a majority of voters in 2024 might be inclined to support a change of the ruling party bloc.
This is a derivation of the fact that AMLO’s hard vote, even if substantial, will not be enough to win the Presidency once again. The electoral trend of the President and his party is decidedly declining. The question is, how much and in what proportion does this decline represent the total number of possible voters? For the time being, in an electoral competition without an opponent, AMLO lost half of the votes obtained in 2018.
The critical thing for AMLO was to observe the reaction of society in general, and the opposition in particular, to the unpunished perpetration of so many crimes by the ruling party, in all its aspects. Among other illegalities, the blatant use of the public budget to promote the image and the vote in favor of the President stood out. The illegal use of vast public resources for his face to be seen all over the country had no significant effect, except in southern areas of the country. Chiapas, Guerrero, Tabasco, and Campeche won the popularity prize for their vote in favor of the President. The rest of the country viewed the recall process with suspicion and great doubts, especially in central and northern Mexico.
The reaction of the opposition parties and the opposition political class in general to the conduct and development of the recall vote has been disconcerting and difficult to understand. AMLO’s rehearsal to test the modalities of electoral fraud in 2024 does not seem to have significantly impressed or worried those who oppose the continuity of the 4T. What is the balance they are left with? With the idea that, although serious illegalities were committed, they would not be enough to demand their clarification, much less their punishment. The impression they leave is that, as they consider the electric law more important than this electoral trial, their forces should focus on that issue and not on the recall, already submerged in the midst of the past.
Part of the opposition seemed to say, “it is scary to think of challenging the recall process because of the possible constitutional and political conflict it would provoke”. But the problem is much deeper than “a political conflict” that would be provoked by the battle to achieve the annulment of the recall. It is an opposition that, since it was not outraged with the illegalities that were committed, it can be said that AMLO achieved his goal of “normalization” of his fraudulent conduct.
The underlying problem is that not fighting the battle now against the conduct and practices promoted by AMLO and his followers is equivalent to signing a death warrant for the opposition and announcing its very possible early defeat in the 2024 presidential electoral process.
What will the 2024 electoral process look like if the recall vote is not challenged? Precisely what we have seen now, except accentuated and deepened ten times. With the abuse of power, the blackmailing of beneficiaries of social programs, the use of public funds in full force, and the harassment of the INE in the form of cutting its budget, the State turned into an electoral promoter, together with the National Guard. All of the above will be “normal” if it is not challenged, legally and through the constitutional electoral authorities, such as the INE and the TEPJF, now and not later.
The opposition political parties and the citizens’ organizations must challenge the whole recall election process and demand its annulment. It must remain as the maximum exponent of everything that is not, nor will be, allowed in future electoral processes and that violating the law in this manner exposes any electoral process to the certainty of its annulment.
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