Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The time for big decisions is approaching for the president and her allies within Morena. The 2027 election process will formally begin almost coinciding with the end of the World Cup in July 2026. But initial preparations have already started. The electoral reform proposed by the ruling party will have to be adopted in early 2026. It will have to be decided whether the three elections proposed by the presidency will coincide and, if so, under what rules.
The country is threatened by an election in 2027 that is not only indecipherable gibberish but also so complex that it promises widespread discontent and post-election conflict. Along with the characteristics of the electoral process itself, the president will have to fight to impose her candidates for all those elected positions, including her own. If she wants to end her last three years in office with some power to define Morena’s next presidential candidacy, she will have to control the majority of her party’s deputies. The fact is that today, Morena deputies and senators are more responsive to López Obrador than to Sheinbaum.
This is why the recent threatening appearance of the citizen from Palenque is relevant. He came to announce: “I am not dead, and my decisions will count.” He is thinking of common decisions or even taking the lead in appointing Morena’s candidates for federal deputies, governors, local deputies, mayors, councilors, judges, and magistrates, and why not? The vote on the revocation of the mandate.
The Calles-Cárdenas conflict began for the same reason: Calles sought to appoint candidates, and Cárdenas prevented him by sending him into exile. Today, Sheinbaum and López Obrador face a similar conflict. Both want to have a say in the appointments. Therefore, it is easy to conclude that this struggle has already unleashed fury among the teams of both contenders.
The fateful date for drawing up candidate lists will begin before the World Cup.
Cárdenas expelled Calles on April 10, 1936, to clear the way for the selection of loyal candidates for the 1937 federal elections. Sheinbaum faces the same political-electoral calendar as Cárdenas, with the added pressure of AMLO’s attempt to extend his leadership. This explains López Obrador’s reappearance, disguised by the presentation of a political-ideological manuscript on pre-Hispanic culture, to announce his intention to continue leading the movement he founded. His threats are real: to defend the Morena majority, the presidential institution, and, if necessary, the country.
What is at stake, from his point of view, is not only the country’s governability but also the definition of Morena’s presidential candidacy and its continuity in 2030. The friendliness between Morena factions was evident at last Saturday’s event in the Zócalo, reflecting a temporary peace between them. But that does not mean the essential conflict not only continues to exist but deepens after the November horribilis that the president says she has suffered. Her confession is more profound: she confessed her political weakness, despite having the absolute submission of the Mexican State at her feet. Cárdenas acted in April. Will she do the same?
López Obrador obviously believes he is called upon to return to the public arena to save his creation. She considers it unnecessary, and that disagreement sets in motion the countdown to their confrontation, when only one will remain standing. Time for reckoning is approaching.
@rpascoep
Further Reading: