Pablo Hiriart
The recent results of state elections in the United States are not enough for any party to start celebrating with an eye on next year. They provide clues, but nothing more. The victory of Social Democrat Zohran Mamdani in New York in no way marks a “paradigm shift” in American politics, as a respected colleague argued to me. New York is not a platform for winning the presidential nomination for either party. On the contrary, it crushes aspirants. If you doubt this, look at what happened to two prominent mayors of the Iron City: Rudolph Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg. Even less so when you consider Mamdani’s agenda of promises: freezing rents and public transportation for all. If Mamdani does well, he could be the successor to Bernie Sanders on the American left, but to go any higher is pure speculation.
For their part, President Trump and his party face enormous challenges less than a year before the crucial midterm elections that will determine control of the U.S. Congress. Trump has a national approval rating of around 40-42 percent, with disapproval in the 54-56 percent range. In a recent poll, only 33 percent approve of the way Trump is governing the country. Within the Republican Party, his approval rating dropped from 81 percent to 68 percent. In the poll, about 41 percent said their vote for Congress would serve as a message against Trump, while only 21 percent said it would be a vote in his favor.
In the recent November 4 elections, the Democrats scored significant victories in the races for the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey, as well as Mamdani’s win in New York. Trump’s candidates lost. The results were interpreted as a vote of no confidence in the “Trump agenda.” That is true, but it is also true that, despite the president’s declining approval ratings, the Democratic Party does not have a better outlook. Within the Republican ranks, there is tension between those who follow the “classic” wing of the party and those who align themselves more with the president’s “MAGA” style. These divisions are costing cohesion, which has been fundamentally eroded by revelations from Jeffrey Epstein’s files.
In the Democratic Party, there is a generational and ideological clash: on the one hand, the old guard (“moderates”), and on the other, the younger, “progressives” who want more radical proposals. So, for the midterm elections, the president’s party faces the inevitable: attrition and discontent over unfulfilled expectations. The economic issues—inflation and the cost of living—are a major headache for Trump’s camp and Republican candidates, and they are shaping up to be the Democrats’ most effective weapon. The poll indicates this: 61 percent believe that Trump’s policies have worsened the economy.
Thus, this month’s local and state elections served as an early reflection of the political “starting” temperature. On the electoral map, “switcher” states like Virginia show a setback for Republicans. This is a bad sign for Trump looking ahead to 2026. And a challenge for Democrats: although they are winning on some fronts, they are struggling to motivate young and independent voters consistently. Motivation can vary. The failure to end the government shutdown caused a rift in the Democratic ranks. As a result, the progressive wing is pushing for the resignation of its Senate leader, Chuck Schumer. But Trump’s image is also eroding among independents and some “moderate” Republicans, which opens a window of vulnerability. In 2026, grassroots mobilization is expected to be key. Democrats seem more motivated after the November results, but they will have to convert that into actual votes.
Summary: New York voters have nothing in common with voters in Utah or Alabama. That is why it is pointless to extrapolate the results of recent elections to a national scenario. They provide clues, but they are far from giving us a definitive direction.
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