On Thursday, July 30, INEGI released the GDP data for Q2. It was not a surprise that the actual figure is much worse than we anticipated (-14%), as many early indicators show that unemployment, consumption, exports, public spending, tourism, oil revenues as well as IVA, and IEPS collection fell beyond expectations.
On Friday, October 30, INEGI released the data for Q3. Contrary to the original expectations from early in the pandemic, the rate of growth of GDP compared to the previous quarter grew 12% (a decrease of -8.6 in relation to the same quarter the previous year), marginally offsetting the loss accumulated during 2020. Thus we make a correction on our forecast for the rest of the year, lowering the fall from -14.55–15% to -10.4% Y/Y for 2020, considering that the last quarter will be subjected to a domestic and international contraction caused by a resurgence of the pandemic in Europe and continuous ups and downs in the US and in México, where it has not been dominated, causing intermittent partial closings of economic activity, and where the effect of the end of the US stimulus programs will show in the decrease in household consumption, especially in the traditional shopping season that begins on Black Friday after Thanksgiving and ends with the post-Christmas sales.
Different from the rest of the world, México’s economic growth was already negative before the pandemic, mostly attributable to erratic policy decisions since the beginning of the current administration, which led to loss of confidence thus canceling any new private investment project, coupled by a lack of public investment except in highly questionable government pet projects.
All the numbers below are historical records, except for, Q4 and Y/Y for 2020, as this is the forecast of SEPGRA’s Economic analysis group. If the reader wants a further explanation, it is in the Special Reports section under the title Mexico on the Verge of the Perfect Storm.
Evolution: Annual GDP Mexico
| Date | Annual GDP | GDP Growth (%) |
| 2020 | 1,076,160M$ | -8.2% |
| 2019 | 1,278,870M$ | -0.3% |
| 2018 | 1,222,053M.$ | 2.1% |
| 2017 | 1,156,953M.$ | 2.1% |
| 2016 | 1,077,906M.$ | 2.9% |
| 2015 | 1,170,567M.$ | 3.3% |
| 2014 | 1,314,569M.$ | 2.8% |
| 2013 | 1,274,444M.$ | 1.4% |
| 2012 | 1,201,094M.$ | 3.6% |
| 2011 | 1,180,487M.$ | 3.7% |
| 2010 | 1,057,801M.$ | 5.1% |
| 2009 | 900,047M.$ | -5.3% |
| 2008 | 1,109,987M.$ | 1.1% |
| 2007 | 1,052,697M.$ | 2.3% |
| 2006 | 975,383M.$ | 4.5% |
| 2005 | 877,477M.$ | 2.3% |
| 2004 | 782,243M.$ | 3.9% |
| 2003 | 729,335M.$ | 1.4% |
| 2002 | 772,110M.$ | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 756,693M.$ | -0.4% |
| 2000 | 707,909M.$ | 4.9% |
| 1999 | 600,225M.$ | 2.8% |
| 1998 | 526,522M.$ | 5.2% |
| 1997 | 500,416M.$ | 6.8% |
| 1996 | 410,973M.$ | 6.8% |
| 1995 | 360,096M.$ | -6.3% |
| 1994 | 527,811M.$ | 4.9% |
| 1993 | 500,795M.$ | 3.6% |
| 1992 | 403,733M.$ | 3.6% |
| 1991 | 348,139M.$ | 4.2% |
| 1990 | 290,402M.$ | 5.1% |
| 1989 | 246,079M.$ | 4.2% |
| 1988 | 201,926M.$ | 1.2% |
| 1987 | 165,058M.$ | 1.9% |
| 1986 | 150,513M.$ | -3.8% |
| 1985 | 217,388M.$ | 2.8% |
| 1984 | 204,860M.$ | 3.6% |
| 1983 | 173,714M.$ | -4.3% |
| 1982 | 213,077M.$ | -0.7% |
| 1981 | 293,610M.$ | 8.8% |
| 1980 | 228,606M.$ | 8.3% |
| 1979 | 134,561M.$ | 9.2% |
| 1978 | 102,500M.$ | 8.2% |
| 1977 | 81,814M.$ | 3.4% |
| 1976 | 89,026M.$ | 4.2% |
| 1975 | 88,000M.$ | 5.6% |
| 1974 | 72,000M.$ | 6.1% |
| 1973 | 55,280M.$ | 8.4% |
| 1972 | 45,200M.$ | 8.5% |
| 1971 | 39,200M.$ | 4.2% |
| 1970 | 35,520M.$ | 6.6% |
| 1969 | 32,480M.$ | 5.8% |
| 1968 | 29,360M.$ | 7.3% |
| 1967 | 26,560M.$ | 5.9% |
| 1966 | 24,320M.$ | 6.2% |
| 1965 | 21,840M.$ | 6.5% |
| 1964 | 20,080M.$ | 10.6% |
| 1963 | 16,960M.$ | 7.5% |
| 1962 | 15,200M.$ | 4.6% |
| 1961 | 14,160M.$ | 4.0% |
| 1960 | 13,040M.$ |