Pablo Hiriart
Without doing a great job in government, Javier Milei defeated the Kirchnerist machine in Argentina’s recent elections on Sunday, October 26. Milei’s victory in these legislative elections and in the November 2023 presidential elections is due to the public’s weariness with the ineptitude and corruption of Kirchnerism. Inept and corrupt, Argentina’s populist rulers were the architects of their own downfall: an extravagant figure from the far right. The idea of thinking they own the poor is a fantasy of Latin American populism that is shattered when it comes up against their inability to govern and the corruption of their leaders.
Then there are only two paths left: change the laws to exercise tyranny, or hand over power in democratic elections. In Argentina, this happened, and the losers have the opportunity to correct their mistakes, shed the ballast, and compete again for the popular vote. Thus, democracy prevails. “You cannot spend more than we have, idiots!” Milei shouted at his political opponents, and the people understood. They understood, after a bitter and prolonged populist experience, in which money was distributed without generating wealth, leaving Argentina in ruins and its inhabitants with inflation rates above 200 percent annually. Milei lowered annual inflation from 211.4% to 31.8%. It could still skyrocket again because, as a former Mexican finance secretary said, the difficult thing is not so much lowering inflation from three to two digits, but from two to one digit.
Since inflation is the tax that hits the poor the hardest, poverty in Argentina decreased from 41.7 percent to 31.6 percent of the population. Argentina had been without economic growth for more than a decade, but this year its GDP is expected to grow by 4.5 percent. Milei managed to contain the fiscal deficit after the historic deficits of Kirchnerism. In the previous Kirchnerist government, the Minister of Economy ordered the Central Bank to print money to maintain the electoral clientele… which ineptitude and corruption had taken away from them.
Those who are good at crafting slogans but bad at governing disparage Milei’s victory last Sunday, arguing that he won because of his “submissiveness to Trump.” All governments around the world want—or have wanted—to win Trump’s favor and have the United States on their side. From Maduro to Putin to Xi Jinping to Pedro Sánchez, they have all made overtures to win his sympathy. Maduro offered him gold. Yes, Venezuela’s gold. Hamas and Netanyahu stood to attention before his peace plan, which neither side liked. Javier Milei has been no more pragmatic than any of the above. With one substantial difference: Milei and Trump think in much the same way. There is no hypocrisy in their approach.
Milei’s militarism turned out to be false. The vice president, Victoria Eugenia Villarruel, is a defender of dictatorial regimes. Milei distanced himself and, with his bombastic language, called her a “brutal traitor.” It was a lie that he was going to do away with social programs overnight and send millions of Argentines into poverty. When his party lost in September in the province of Buenos Aires, he acknowledged defeat and offered to redouble his efforts to win the next election. Now he has won even in the province of Buenos Aires, which will lead to a rebalancing of forces in Congress.
I am not saying that he will do well or poorly. Still, the fact is that with the new electoral map, Milei closes the possibility of a qualified majority removing him from office early. He will not be forced to accept budgets with high fiscal deficits because he has the votes in Congress to give the green light to the presidential veto. The votes obtained on Sunday, November 26, give him room to maneuver politically, negotiate with parties and governors, and move forward with reforms to liberalize the economy and reduce the government’s size. Milei and his party already have the necessary strength and appeal to reach an agreement with the centrist Radical Civic Union and secure a majority in Congress, which will provide stability and longevity to the changes in Argentina.
In recent days, he has made changes to his team that seem misguided. Or perhaps not. Argentines, so good at soccer, music, and literature, but so bad at voting, will judge him at the polls. Democracy is the name of the game. At any rate, Argentina may once again become one of the wealthiest countries in the world, as it was a century ago, and the leading economy in Latin America. Second and third place went to Venezuela and Cuba.
Further Reading: