Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
Mexico is experiencing its worst political moment under Sheinbaum’s young administration, with a governance crisis at a boiling point. There are social and criminal uprisings throughout the country. Violence is escalating, and the federal government’s inability to control the situation and to provide peace and tranquility is evident to citizens every day.
It is precisely in this national context that the government is proposing the “need” to combine the Revocation of Mandate (recall) vote with the midterm elections. This appears to be an instinctive reaction of fear on the part of the government, which believes that the upcoming midterm elections could call into question the legitimacy of the president herself, anticipating a negative result for the ruling party. It is due to this fear of a major electoral defeat that it seeks to consolidate the various elections to increase the vote for the eventual recall. Sheinbaum feels insecure in the face of the ongoing crisis of governance breakdown in the country.
The fear of recall stems from the poor turnout in previous referendums organized by the government, with the first recall having a turnout of only 18% of the electoral roll. In comparison, the vote for the judiciary reached a depressing and illegitimate 13% turnout. Sheinbaum fears that her own recall election will fare even worse than previous exercises. Anything worse than 13% would reflect a crisis of legitimacy for her government and her own administration.
All referendums have an explicit political intent. López Obrador took the idea of electing members of the judiciary by popular vote from Evo Morales’ similar experience in Bolivia. The idea of the recall vote originated with Hugo Chávez. Chávez received a 60% approval vote and used that victory as justification to amend the Venezuelan Constitution, allowing for indefinite reelection. In the Mexican case, the percentage necessary for the approval of the mandate is with the participation of 40% of the electoral roll. AMLO was sure he would exceed that figure, which would enable him to amend the Constitution and secure reelection. He got 18%, which nullified that reelectionist intention.
He had to accept that the recall vote would take place in a year without coinciding with another federal election, such as the midterms, so as not to contaminate the midterm election with the presidential figure. Thus, it was approved, and the recall vote took place in 2022, not 2021. And that is why today it is constitutionally scheduled for 2028, so as not to contaminate the 2027 midterm election.
However, Sheinbaum’s proposal deliberately seeks to influence the 2027 election with her presence, voting on the recall and judicial polls simultaneously with the constitutional midterms. The goal is to influence the midterm election results with the presidential figure on the ballot, improve the judicial election numbers, and ultimately increase the recall votes so that they are not as low as the numbers López Obrador received in his similar election. Moreover, Sheinbaum aims to demonstrate that her own numbers indicate her government enjoys greater popularity than López Obrador’s.
What is relevant is that the radical change in the purposes and terms of the 2027 election is because it is clear that this government is progressively losing its governability. The assassination of Carlos Manzo is a milestone in the chain of political assassinations that have plunged Mexico into mourning. In many cases, these assassinations occurred without the victim having municipal, state, or federal protection. However, it turns out that Manzo allegedly had protection from municipal, state, and federal authorities. Not only that, but those forces were physically present in the square where he was killed. This fact raises all kinds of suspicions, starting with the suspicion that the government, or a sector of it, did not really want Manzo to remain alive. The criminals definitely tried to kill him.
Along with the violence in multiple states of the Republic, including Mexico City, citizens can only conclude that the government cannot guarantee the lives and property of the country’s inhabitants. Violence is beyond the government’s control. Along with this, the real economy has entered a recession, accompanied by a rise in prices for essential goods and services for the population. The data speaks of a stagnant economy, but one that is under control. But what good is that to citizens on a day-to-day basis when they see that the cost of basic groceries has risen and the shortage of goods and services is beginning to affect the daily lives of Mexican families? All the propaganda in the world cannot hide these facts.
Work stoppages, strikes, and sabotage of production are not going to diminish. They will grow in number, in demands, and in virulence as time goes on. Social uprisings have historically occurred in this manner. They are not abrupt and unexpected. Social uprisings are like volcanoes in formation. They take shape and meaning over time. Social conflicts begin in social or economic sectors, until each of them becomes convinced that they are needed to move a government that is unwilling or unable to meet their demands. These are movements that have the potential to alter the course chosen by a government, forcing it to change even its ideology.
Urban movements are like that. Public universities across the country are in a state of effervescence. The big surprise of the protests on October 2 this year is the magnitude, the number of members, and the ferocity of the so-called Black Bloc. They went from 30 young people to more than 300 members. Tomorrow, there will be 3,000, including Icels (Involuntary celibates), university students, and gang members, joining together to destroy the “system,” loot stores, and attack women. Their demands stem from the fact that they feel they have no future in the current social order. For them, the government’s little cards are a mockery and an object of contempt. They are a force ready for social revolt and, in the future, the raw material for a revolution—or even a fascist movement.
The countryside is part of a stage of dissolution of the traditional ties between rural producers and the ruling party. A government in technical bankruptcy has little chance of defusing the conflict that arises when guaranteed prices come into play. This model of guaranteed income requires a substantial amount of money, and the current government simply does not have that amount available. Much less so when you consider that tax revenues decline in times of recession.
In addition to all of the above, pressure from Washington stemming from Trump’s decision to declare drug trafficking a terrorist phenomenon, and constant economic pressure, have also created tensions in Sheinbaum’s cabinet. These tensions are having an effect within Morena, generating currents both for and against the presidential administration. Faced with the growing governance crisis, the government’s response has been to promote the centralization of all power. The guideline is: all power to the state and no room for autonomy in society. Under this reasoning, the only way to prevent the political system from collapsing is to ensure total control of society. That is why the concept of totalitarianism exists. The idea is control over everything. There should be no individual outbursts, no initiatives not approved or controlled by the state, and no movements outside the state’s instruments of social control.
This logic underlies Sheinbaum and the government’s attempt to promote a flawed and controlled election process in 2027, which seeks to secure a majority of votes for Morena in the Chamber of Deputies, the Judiciary, and the recall. They are doing this because they fear the disruptive social power that could result from their loss of governability. This fear even extends to López Obrador. He is planning a “national tour” to present his new book. He is doing so before the 2027 elections to impose his criteria on Morena’s candidate selection. This means that AMLO will be a direct player in the 2027 election. What is unclear is whether he will enter the political-electoral process with his own political project or with one he shares with Sheinbaum.
For now, Sheinbaum aims to consolidate her position in power by securing a spot on the 2027 ballot. It is also unclear whether this self-promotion is with AMLO’s consent or whether it reflects her own position, allowing her to claim that she received more votes than AMLO in the recall. And, thus, free herself a little from AMLO’s tutelage. For now, the proposal to include the recall on the 2027 ballot stems from the president’s political weakness, the National Palace’s fear of the country’s growing ungovernability, AMLO’s obscure but active presence in national life, the shadow of pressure from Trump, and internal struggles within Morena.
@rpascoep
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