Pablo Hiriart
Athens. Aristotle walked along the dusty path where I now stand, teaching his students physics, politics, ethics, and values that live on to this day, such as respect, coexistence, and the pursuit of happiness through virtue.
In the agora, in whose ruins I take notes, democracy was born, and science and logic flourished. From here, in Athens, emerged the flame of Western civilization, which today appears weak and close to extinction.
In the shade of a hundred-year-old olive tree, or perhaps a thousand-year-old one, I read that President Donald Trump is leading a crusade to subdue the Athens of our age, which are the universities, in this case, those of the United States.
It seems like the pendulum of history has swung back to where it was before the dawn of Friday, October 12, 1492, when the sailor Rodrigo de Triana, climbing the rigging of La Niña, shouted “Land!” and Christopher Columbus entered immortality by ushering in a new balance of global power.
Five centuries later, on Saturday, November 10, 2001, in Doha, Qatar, the World Trade Organization approved China’s entry into the WTO for the following day, without demanding a single democratic commitment in return or honoring human rights as a universal value. The date will also go down in history as the beginning of the return of the axis of world economic power to the East.
The transfer of power will culminate, say the priestesses of Delphi (the IMF and the Centre for Economics and Business Research), between 2035, when 52 percent of global GDP—measured as purchasing power parity (PPP)—will be concentrated in Asia, and by 2050, when the PPP of the entire European Union as a whole will have fallen below 10 percent.
Until Christopher Columbus discovered America for Europe, everything great came from the East. Europeans went to Asia for luxury goods, including silk, fabrics, and spices. However, they could not pay for these goods with glass beads; instead, they had to pay with silver ingots, or there would be no deal. They also paid with slaves.
The most beautiful, richest, and most populous city in the world was Madinat as-Salam (the City of Peace), which we now know as Baghdad. The belt that ran from Syria to the Himalayas was overflowing with wealth, the product of respect for trade that flowed along untouchable routes from the oases of Afghanistan to the valleys of North Africa.
Two centuries before Christ, Eratosthenes, the librarian of Alexandria, stated that the Earth was round, revolved around the Sun, and measured its circumference to be approximately 40,000 kilometers.
When Alexander set out to create an empire, he did not march with his troops into Europe, but to the East.
The greatness of the Roman Empire was founded after the Republic, when it expanded to the East.
Our faith originates from the East, encompassing Christianity, Islam, Judaism, and Buddhism.
The Earth’s economic center is shifting back, which is why we hear its axis cracking.
Andrea Rizzi (The Age of Revenge, Anagrama) notes that in 2001, China’s GDP accounted for 12 percent of that of the United States, and now it represents 62 percent.
There is more news that illustrates the strength of this takeoff. Noah Smith, quoted by Thomas Friedman in The New York Times, stated that in five years, China will account for 45 percent of global manufacturing, equaling or surpassing the United States and all its allies combined.
Friedman continues: “When Trump was finishing his last term, net loans from Chinese banks to domestic industries amounted to $83 billion. In 2024, they rose to $670 billion.”
To get its production out, the journalist who traveled there reports, “China has begun building a fleet of 170 ships capable of transporting several thousand cars at a time across the ocean. Before the pandemic, the world’s shipyards delivered only four such ships each year.”
At one point in the report, Friedman says he is “afraid.”
Afraid of what?
“That we no longer manufacture as many things that China wants to buy. It can make almost everything, at least cheaper and often better.”
Yes, the United States sells China one dollar for every four dollars it buys from China. And what does the United States sell to the Chinese? Soybeans and other agricultural products.
The pendulum is swinging back to its original position, before Columbus’s discovery.
Asia is not just China and its leadership in manufacturing, artificial intelligence, clean energy production, or vehicles.
I read Ana Palacio in El Mundo: India, the most populous country on the planet, is no longer a giant in pause. It is the fifth-largest economy in the world (soon to be the third), with a GDP of four trillion dollars, and it is expected to grow by 6.5 percent this year.
India is a spectacular technology hub that is expected to surpass $1 trillion in computer and communications production this year.
I read (and recommend) the book The Silk Roads, by Oxford University professor Peter Frankopan (Crítica), from whom I take some quotes—not necessarily verbatim—to illustrate Asian muscle:
Proven oil reserves in the Caspian Sea are almost double those of the entire United States.
On the border between Kazakhstan and Russia, there is more than one trillion cubic meters of natural gas, in addition to liquefied gas and oil.
Turkmenistan has even more: 20 trillion cubic meters of natural gas underground, the fourth largest reserve in the world.
The Tian Shan mountain belt, which spans part of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, holds the second-largest gold reserve in the world.
Kazakhstan has beryllium, dysprosium, and other “rare earths” that are essential for manufacturing cell phones, laptops, and rechargeable batteries, as well as uranium and plutonium for producing nuclear energy (and warheads).
Azerbaijan is a country steeped in oil.
China has opened its checkbook, through its Development Bank, to weave with silk and money an alliance with these nations, which are key to regional stability and rich in mineral resources.
Frankopan says that in the London real estate market, the average spending of buyers from these countries (former Soviet republics) is almost three times higher than that of US or Chinese buyers and up to four times higher than that of British buyers.
So much for Professor Frankopan, the IMF and CEBR say that two other players will soon be among the world’s largest economies: Indonesia and Vietnam.
Of all the economies pushing to take the top spots, none are European. South Korea, Macau, Singapore, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates… That is where the pendulum of economic power is swinging.
Without taking anything away from the United States, of course.
Economists and geopolitical experts argue that a new order is emerging, one that will reshape international cooperation bodies, alliances, and institutions.
Will China impose a dominance that can undermine the universality of human rights, democracy, and freedom of expression?
Will we renounce the highest gift of the West, which is the personal sovereignty of each individual, that is, our free will?
That question will have to be asked to the Oracle of Delphi—the real one—next Tuesday.
Further Reading: