Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. The number of US officials who have passed through the gates of the National Palace to meet with President Sheinbaum in her nearly one year in office is historic in terms of both quantity and importance. The most recent visitor to the National Palace, Marco Rubio, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor to President Trump, has been the most important and highest-ranking. There has certainly been no meeting between the presidents, but they have spoken on the phone about seven times.
Not only has the number of US visitors to Mexico been surprising, but also the number of visits by Mexican officials to Washington and New York, notably the repeated visits by Marcelo Ebrard and Omar García Harfuch, along with the Secretaries of Defense and the Navy, and the Attorney General of the Republic.
Due to this intense history of contacts and agreements, fostering a hidden relationship with Washington, President Sheinbaum has tried to mislead her political allies in Morena, accusing the opposition of promoting Washington’s intervention in Mexico, covering up her own actions. It is the president who has opened the door most to US interventionism in Mexico, not the opposition.
But, in all this, what does Washington think of Mexico?
The events of recent years show that there are, broadly speaking, two major conflicting opinions in Washington on how it should relate to Mexico. The two opinions also existed under Democratic administrations, by the way. These are not new strategies, although the positions within the Trump administration are more radical.
The Washington Post reported on the recent confrontation between the two factions: one wants to attack Mexico militarily at strategic points, and the other opposes a military coup, preferring specific political interventions and economic pressure. All add “with the collaboration of the Mexican government.”
Biden was condescending toward AMLO until he grew tired of his lies and approved the operation to capture Mayo Zambada, surely with the consent of the Sinaloa cartel leader himself. A military operation that, incidentally, had the support of some Mexican authorities.
Everyone agrees that Mexico is a national security risk of the utmost gravity, due to the penetration of drug cartel influence into the Mexican government structure, and also because of Morena’s rapprochement with the United States’ adversaries: China and Russia. An eventual operational alliance between the cartels and those adversaries would put the United States at serious risk.
After numerous visits and conversations with Sheinbaum, Washington has concluded that she lacks the political strength to sever ties with the cartels and has shown no inclination to stop favoring the United States’ adversaries. It believes that the tariffs on China were agreed upon with that Asian country, as Chinese companies are going to build railroads in Mexico, reaching the border with the United States.
Washington is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela as if it were a pilot plan for how some kind of intervention could take place in Mexico. They are aware of the close alliance between Maduro and Sheinbaum. The big issue on the table is regime change, even if Washington denies it.
Washington’s central concern revolves around the effect that the destabilization of Mexico could have in the event of a change of government. In an analysis of scenarios, it seems that it prefers Sheinbaum to remain in the presidency, but cornered and eliminating the control that AMLO exercises over her and her government, which also implies breaking the alliance between the government and the cartels. The handling of Mexico’s relationship with adversarial countries will be an issue to be addressed later.
The relationship between Mexico and Washington promises turmoil and constant gestures of tension, along with endless pressure of all kinds, including occasional armed incursions, even if they are “secret.” The renegotiation of the CUSMA/USMCA/T-MEC will be just one more element in this torturous path of readjustment of the great territory that is North America. And so it will be, with Republicans or Democrats in the White House.
What Mexico must understand and accept is that its future will be defined precisely in that great territory called North America.
@rpascoep
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