Antonio Navalón
We must avoid the punditocracy. We must flee from honorary presidents who appear in our countries and who always know—and find it so easy to express their opinions—about what they would do in certain circumstances. We must also flee from national team coaches who claim to know the formula for winning the title. And, above all, we must escape from the comfort zone where we believe we can anticipate what will happen.
I have bad news for you. Everything has changed. No one knows what will happen, nor does anyone have the ability to anticipate the future. However, it is only fair to acknowledge—credit where credit is due—that in a global crisis that is widening every day, there is a growing possibility that President Sheinbaum’s strategy and policy will ultimately bear fruit.
Reality and data—the real ones—impose a truly interesting tariff reality for our country. According to World Tariff Profiles 2025, Mexico—with a weighted rate of 1.6%—ranks third among countries with the lowest average tariff rates, behind only Ireland and, curiously, the United States.
Furthermore, although Trump has said that the president of Mexico is a beautiful woman and has accused her of being frightened and in the hands of the cartels, the truth is that the tariff front could vanish if major crises erupt, such as a landing in Venezuela, the fall of Maduro, or the outbreak of a new conflict in Poland or Hungary.
Ukraine continues to consume the world’s attention. How much longer will this endless war last? Pay attention and think about what is best for Putin. The Russian president has become Europe’s sworn enemy, but what is Europe today, and what does it represent?
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is not only rearming and reinstating military service in a country that—like Japan—has a special predilection for enlistment, weapons, uniforms, and military oaths, but also seeks to become the leading military power on the European continent as a priority economic objective of this new Germany.
And France? Two centuries of living off fairy tales. Never paying the price of what it means to sustain everyday life. Defending—and this is one of the reasons I admire them—their language, their lifestyle, and their greatness. And this, even though deep down, no one really knows what perfume will allow them to continue living, no longer on the greatness of their past, but on the promises of modernity and efficiency they have made.
As a result, France was one of the main winners of World War II. Not so much because of the country itself, but thanks to the obstinacy of Charles De Gaulle. It paraded as the victor and obtained its corresponding piece of Berlin. Today, as Europe’s second-largest economy, it is burdened by high deficits and recent political turmoil. The 2024 deficit closed at approximately 5.8% of GDP, and fiscal tensions have led to rating downgrades.
France’s challenge is not only financial, nor does it lie in changing prime ministers every six months; its real problem is social and one of integration. In metropolitan areas such as Paris and Marseille, identity tensions and inequalities are accumulating, demanding more effective cohesion and security policies. Today, at the heart of France beats an endless number of Arab Muslim souls who simply hate France.
Religious war has no better representation—not even in the Middle East—than it does on French territory. Although reducing it to a religious war would be simplistic, it is a real problem that the state must address. Today, these Arab Muslims want to receive generous aid from the French government and consolidate their position until they occupy the country. The France that put an end to the Templars and accomplished so many feats throughout its history is now in its final throes at the hands of the enemies of its civilization, the Arabs.
In the south, Spain and Italy are burdened with their own difficulties. The third and fourth largest European economies today also have deep-seated problems. Italy is grappling with migratory pressure and security. However, Meloni’s political astuteness is attempting to bring order with a firm hand, and they have the possibility of eradicating the silent and dangerous occupation of the Arab world on their territory.
For its part, Spain is undergoing a silent demographic transformation due to the number of foreign-born residents and arrivals from Latin America and the Maghreb. In just 10 years, the foreign-born population residing in Spain has grown from approximately 5.88 million people in 2015 to 8.84 million in 2024. Today, immigrants—mainly from Latin American and Arab countries—represent about 20% of the total population, meaning that almost one in five people in Spain was born outside the country. I understand that Spaniards will continue to reproduce, but the reality is that fewer and fewer are being born and living in their territory.
From this context and perspective, you will understand that for the big players—such as, for example, the Emperor of all time—there are greater concerns. For Trump, tariffs are part of a larger maneuver. On this issue, it is crucial to recognize that President Claudia Sheinbaum and the country will prosper as long as the current leader of the 4T fulfills the commitments agreed upon and necessary for its northern neighbor.
It is not enough to refrain from shouting “Long live the 4T” at the September 15 ceremony. In addition, the heads of those responsible for organized crime must be exposed on the pikes of U.S. justice.
The future, stability, and success depend on everyone doing their part. It is a trade-off of tariffs for justice. It is up to Mexico to hand over the guilty parties and close the door on impunity. It is up to the United States to continue delaying the imposition of tariffs.
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