Antonio Navalón
September 1, 1939, went down in history as the official beginning of World War II. On that day, Germany, having had its fill of Europe under the condescension, frivolity, and incompetence of democratic governments, finally broke through the border with Poland and occupied it. And although, after the Munich Agreement and the mutilation of Czechoslovakia, France and England had warned the Führer of the Thousand-Year Reich that if he dared to invade Poland, he would immediately find himself at war with both countries, he and his followers did not believe them.
The five years between 1934 and 1939 allowed the Nazi hierarchy to accurately gauge the depth of the crisis that was corroding democracies. They discovered, on the one hand, the fragility of their political structures and, on the other, the lack of determination of their leaders to accept that the only way to avoid total catastrophe was to accept partial catastrophe by curbing Hitler’s expansionism. They did not do so, and history remembers the devastating consequences of that September 1. On Monday, it will be September 1 again.
Democracy, as then, faces a serious crisis. Governments that are no longer governed by strict adherence to the law, but by the will of their leaders, rule with the winds of war. The clearest example is Ukraine. While there is talk of negotiation, one side seeks to destroy the other, causing civilian casualties in Kyiv not seen since the invasion of February 2022. The aggressors act with the certainty that democratic leaders lack firmness.
In Mexico, President Sheinbaum will deliver her first State of the Union address amid mounting tensions. Our powerful neighbor to the north is taking advantage of our state’s weaknesses and the lack of credibility in the policy of replacing bullets with hugs to squeeze us ever tighter. It is doing so with tariffs, with fentanyl, with migration, and, above all, with the latent threat that anything can happen.
As in 1939, thinking that these are just warnings could prove to be a fatal mistake. Hitler also believed that the weakness of leaders equaled the weakness of the people, and he was wrong. It is one thing to have incompetent or corrupt rulers, and quite another to underestimate the dignity and sovereignty of nations.
Therefore, it is not unreasonable to imagine that Caracas could end up being the new Panama, or that Maduro could end up becoming the new Noriega. The truth, especially 96 hours before Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Mexico, is that we can no longer hold on to the hope that they will not have the courage, because they are daring to do anything.
On one occasion, President Trump went so far as to say that he could kill someone on Fifth Avenue without suffering any consequences. Perhaps at the time it sounded like bravado; today, as he himself has acknowledged, he governs in full accordance with his desires. And as Richard Nixon thought, if the president of the United States wants something, all he has to do is want it, and it becomes legal.
Such is the magnitude of the institutional crisis in the great Republic of the North. Such is the magnitude of the danger, the challenge, and the uncertainty we are experiencing, still clinging to the naive calculation that “they won’t dare.” But they have already dared. What happens from now on will depend on a combination of strength and wisdom, and the first test will be in Wednesday’s meetings.
Whether out of loyalty to the movement that brought her to power, fidelity to her mentor López Obrador, or her own convictions, the fact is that in her first year, the president has shown internal disorder that erodes confidence and limits faith in her leadership abilities. And as if that weren’t enough, on Monday, the country’s new judicial system goes into effect.
Mexico has become the only country that has elected all its judges and magistrates by popular vote. The first where anyone can buy total impunity. Because if the police chief who should investigate him is bought off and the judge who should try him is too, where can justice escape but to heaven? This September 1 is not like that of 1939, but the historical coincidence between the two dates is still striking.
Let us remember that on September 11, a new world began with the attacks on the Twin Towers in 2001. And today, as we await Marco Rubio’s visit, we face a host of problems and, above all, the inability to foresee how far the parties will go. It is, without a doubt, a day to look upon with concern… and fear.
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