It was during the uncertain times of the pandemic five years ago, June of 2020, when Sepgra, our virtual haven, was born —a space to disseminate research, analysis, and special reports on the national, regional, and global economic and political landscapes, as a platform to share our opinions and thoughts with like-minded global citizens worldwide. We transitioned from traditional in-person meetings to the innovative world of virtual meetings, sharing our insights and analyses via email and the increasingly popular WhatsApp. It all started with a piece on the drastic decline in international and US GDP in the first quarter of 2020, another on the severe contraction of the Mexican economy, forecasting a -11% drop for the year, and a special report on its 10 political risks for 2020. Then one on the China-American Informational “Biological” Warfare: From “Yellow Peril” to “Chinese Virus”, and a visionary column by Luis Rubio on Mexico’s State oil company (PEMEX) appropriately titled “Expensive Toys”.
At the time, hospitals were operating at full capacity; Covid 19 immobilized people all over the world, and the headlines were about how people were learning to live in captivity, working from home; convenience stores had empty shelves in cities where corpses were overflowing the morgues or stored on frozen containers; economies paralyzed, markets in a roller coaster, some governments facing the issue responsibly, learning along the way. In contrast, others, ruled by populist leaders, were in denial, lying about the seriousness of the pandemic.
Navigating Economic Turbulence.
Most central banks responded with incredible speed and effectiveness, releasing a historically significant flow of funds which, together with an equally abundant deluge of public spending, helped prevent a total collapse of their economies. Yet, in some countries, again those ruled by populist leaders, they refused not only to accept the seriousness of the health problem but to adopt a countercyclical economic policy, hence matching the worst number of contagions and deaths, with the steepest declines in their economies.
Unemployment reached record highs in most countries. In the United States, more than 35% of the lowest-paid workers were laid off- at least temporarily-, representing about four times the number of job losses experienced by the top earners, which were around 9%. Its balance of payments narrowed its deficit mainly due to a drastic reduction in imports. The disruption to global production and financial markets led to sharp declines in global stock prices and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against most foreign currencies, which later reversed. The only country whose economy grew, albeit less, was China.
The U.S. Presidential Campaigns were starting to boil. With it, the bitterness of the attacks caused a contentious political environment, which grew in frequency and intensity until the regrettable moment marked by the January 6th attack on the Capitol, the zenith of polarization. During the last five years, we have seen the steepest meltdown of the world economies since 1929, followed by a fast recovery in most of them as a result of fiscal and monetary measures in the advanced economies, and currently experiencing its adverse effects, particularly the inflation caused by the deluge of money matched with a supply chain disruption and with the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which sent the prices of oil, gas, grains, and cereals skyrocketing. The corrective measures applied globally are inducing a slowdown in the global economy, and now the effect of Trump’s tariffs most likely creates the worst combination of key variables: inflation coupled with recession, providing us with ample material for analysis for the foreseeable future.
Five Years of Global Economic and Political Insights.
Through the publication of 1978 pieces, we demonstrated our adaptability and resilience. We navigated through international conflicts, domestic disturbances, political trends, and scientific advancements, covering a vast array of topics: from the history of gold from 1891-to 2021, our analysis of risks and opportunities for the year, the ghost cities in China, Singapore PM’s warning that the US is miscalculating China over Taiwan, Canada’s handling of the supply chain challenges, the God equation, Lobbying in Washington, Decoding the brain, Merkel: the shadow of a giant, the US Presidential election and its turbulent, unforgettable conclusion, a celebration of Ludwig Van Beethoven’s 250 birthday, the need for a new system in Mexico, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its causes, potential outcomes and the wars to come, Larry Fink’s yearly letters to CEO’s, Roger Penrose explanation on why the universe begin, Artificial Intelligence doing the homework, cataloging the infinite, 50 examples of corporations that failed to innovate, and much more. We delved into the adverse effects of globalization and the evolving approaches to economic phenomena. Our enlightening videos and forecasts were a testament to our growing knowledge, and even in our missteps, we found valuable lessons that strengthened our resolve and commitment.
In the past five years, we have observed that the United Kingdom, the sixth-largest economy, is still abiding with the Brexit ordeal; Germany, the world’s third-largest, economy began a new era post-Merkel with the surge of China as the leading manufacturer of vehicles, and the war in Ukraine disrupting the supply of energy for its industry; Spain and Italy don’t seem to match the interests of their peers in NATO versus Russia; Sweden and Finland abandoned more than 70 years of neutrality and applied for membership in NATO; Japan continues to be the fifth-largest economy, after India on the fourth place, and China, the second-largest economy endures, besides the economic effects of a lockdown for covid, a domestic credit bubble impacting its major economic engine, and Trump’s tariffs, has Taiwan in high alert given the rhetoric of its main ally; the wars in Ukraine and in the middle east have no end in sight and will continue to disturb the behavior of markets and economies worldwide, and the cryptocurrencies volatility have been swinging and taken a toll on speculators.
One of our pieces was read in English directly on our website by 387,000 readers and counting. That same piece was translated into Spanish by at least seven readers, who shared it with their contacts on WhatsApp or other platforms (like infobae.com), so there is no reliable data on how many others read it. We are always attentive to readers’ suggestions and demands. One of those was to open a section in Spanish for some of our pieces, particularly since other websites were already publishing translated versions of them.
Also, since we noticed some Asian traffic, we decided to publish pieces relevant to that market in Mandarin and in Japanese. To our surprise, there are far more readers of the Japanese texts than of the Chinese texts.
As part of the evaluation, we found it necessary to improve and modernize the site’s overall appearance and functionality. This involved bringing together talents scattered across two continents, resulting in what is seen today.
We mourn the early passing of Manuel Suárez Mier, one of our founding contributors, and miss his weekly columns full of wit, acute criticism, and scholarly accuracy. His generosity included sharing his thoughts, rigorous economic and political analysis, and vast knowledge of economic and political history, and he always did it gracefully. Each of his sixty-five columns published by Sepgra is worth re-reading, from his severe criticisms of Donald Trump’s behavior as president to the series on the “Mexican Demolition Derby,” where he foresaw the problems the country faces today. We invite our readers to use the search tool in the top right corner to enjoy Manuel’s thoughts on so many subjects.
The Next Five Years.
Many of the posts are free to read to capture the interest of potential subscribers. The premium content, restricted and tailored for subscribers, has been enhanced, and its quality has been improved based on user reviews and feedback from external advisors. It is a continuous process that demands our full attention, resources, and passion. Every step in the right direction gives us the feeling of fulfillment we crave as our principal reward.
Unlike some think tanks, which rely on donations and tailor their content to please their donors, we enjoy the freedom to deliver an unbiased service and thrive on producing an excellent, objective product. It is a continuous process that demands attention, resources, and passion. If you enjoy our content as much as we do producing it, become a subscriber; it is the best compliment and the easiest way to support our endeavor. If you’ve already subscribed, thank you; we really appreciate it.
We hope to continue enjoying your company on this journey. Hopefully, others will join us not only as free riders but as partners in this quest for relevance and quality. Let’s see what the next five years have in store for us. So far, we anticipate a lot of action, a global reshaping of all kinds: new hegemons, new alliances, a worldwide technological revolution driven by artificial intelligence that will transform not only economies but also everyone’s daily lives.
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