Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
Who would have thought? Today’s presidential elections in Honduras have become a venue for an indirect confrontation between Claudia Sheinbaum and Donald Trump. It is the closest approximation we have to what the Cold War and its “proxy wars” were like, where the Soviet Union or China indirectly confronted the United States or Europe, and whose victims were third countries. This was the case in Vietnam, Congo, and Colombia, among many others. The confrontation is graphically expressed in the actions taken, behind the scenes or in public, by both presidents.
Honduran President Xiomara Castro made a surprise, lightning-fast visit a few days before her country’s presidential elections. It was almost a “come and go” visit. She had a private conversation with President Sheinbaum, and then thanked Mexico for all the support it has given her country. Among this support, the Sembrando Vida program and a new phase of Jóvenes Construyendo el Futuro stand out. In addition, Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission reinforced their support for Honduras, without specifying what that support entails.
The meeting reinforced the ideological and political ties of the “socialist” bloc in Latin America, which includes, in addition to Mexico and Honduras, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and, to a lesser extent, Brazil. Xiomara Castro arrived in Mexico on a Sunday. She had a busy schedule of unspecified activities on Monday, and it was not until Tuesday that she met with Claudia Sheinbaum. According to an internal Morena source with knowledge of the facts, Monday was spent receiving support and developing plans to reinforce the election campaign in her country. On Tuesday, the meeting with the Mexican president confirmed the support agreements made the previous day.
Ambassador Martha Bárcena described the visit as “curious” in a message on X. She pointed out that the Honduran president’s party could lose the elections, amid electoral disorganization and with the army performing improper functions, raising doubts about the future of Honduran democracy. The truth is that the elections in Honduras are being held amid a state of national exception decreed by President Castro. This state of exception explains the extraordinary powers granted to the Honduran Armed Forces. Given the military’s focus in this case, the Honduran president’s party, Libre, has nominated Rixi Moncada as its presidential candidate. She served as Minister of Defense under the current president, so her candidacy puts the issue of control and relations with the military leadership at the center of the ruling party’s campaign.
Presumably in response to President Sheinbaum’s actions, and in line with his vision of promoting governments ideologically aligned with his own, President Trump has intervened in the Honduran election, as he did in the recent elections in Argentina. He called on the Honduran people to reject socialist or communist governments by voting overwhelmingly for the National Party candidate, Nasry Asfura. Trump’s statement may strike a chord with people suffering from a critical economic situation and the presence of drug-related violence. Trump called on Hondurans to vote against the “narco-communists.” He was emphatic: “I will be able to work with ‘Tito’ (as Asfura is known), but if the communists remain in power, I will have to stop all collaboration with Honduras.” He also threatened to deport Hondurans living in the United States.
These threats marked the start of Trump’s campaign just three days before the election. The day before, Trump pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who is accused of drug trafficking and whose extradition had been requested by the Biden administration. Hernández is currently imprisoned in the United States. Hernández was, coincidentally, a president from the same National Party as Asfura, Trump’s preferred candidate. Trump’s intention is surely to remove a black mark from Asfura, as he comes from the same party as Hernández, the now pardoned and “exonerated” former president of Honduras.
Trump will be putting pressure on the Honduran electorate, wielding two sticks. One stick is the maneuvers and threats against Venezuela, which keep large sectors of Caribbean Basin society in a state of tension and uncertainty. The interventionist and military figure puts pressure on the region, and even more so on Honduras, with its history of military coups. This is not just any kind of pressure. The other stick is the Trump administration’s anti-immigrant policy. Remittances are the most important source of income for Honduras and its people. The mere idea of touching that source of income affects the national mood.
Trump is trying to do in Honduras what he did in Argentina: test his ability to influence a nation’s internal politics. Especially if, as in this case, he can also indirectly measure himself against the toughest nut to crack in Latin America: Mexico. At the juncture of the Honduran elections, Trump seeks to impose his candidate for the presidency, remove another star from the socialist bloc, and indirectly subdue the Mexican president. For these reasons, his attack aims to be as devastating as possible. In addition, it consolidates the Latin American trend of preferring center-right or right-wing governments over the faltering socialist bloc. And, in passing, to further corner Mexico and its “socialist” government.
The election in Honduras and the siege of Venezuela add, among other things, warnings to the government of Claudia Sheinbaum. Just as Xiomara Castro, president of Honduras, was unable to tame Washington with her “minimal” concessions, Claudia Sheinbaum will not succeed either, even with her “minimal” concessions on organized crime and piecemeal economic reforms. They will not be satisfactory to Trump or to whoever comes after him, regardless of their party.
All this is happening at a time when Mexico does not have a foreign minister. These gaps in public service, whether deliberate or unavoidable, only serve to deepen doubts about the effectiveness of the Mexican government, which sends the world mixed messages and double-talk. Thus, Mexico is not trustworthy to its enemies, but even less so to its friends.
What both have made clear is that neither engages in dialogue with the other, nor with their internal “opponents.” The strategy shared by Trump and Sheinbaum is that they take no prisoners in their war. All enemies are executable.
The proxy war between Sheinbaum and Trump, being waged in Honduras, is the prelude to a more profound and difficult confrontation between the two neighbors, whose friendship is experiencing growing tension and weariness. The staging in Honduras is the most reliable proof of this confrontation. If Trump wins his bet in Honduras, it will lead to the weakening and growing isolation of the 4T government throughout Latin America. If Sheinbaum wins, it will be a Pyrrhic victory amid intense US economic and migratory pressure on Honduras.
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