Pablo Hiriart
Words and slogans wear out more quickly when their spokespersons corrupt and empty them of their original content. That is what is happening with the left, which is on the way out in Latin America. It only remains in power where it has established dictatorships, such as in Venezuela (Maduro lost and did not hand over the presidency) and Nicaragua (Ortega was re-elected because he imprisoned opposition candidates), as well as in Cuba. The left has already lost Argentina, and before the end of this year, it will have lost the presidencies of Bolivia and Chile. In 2026, Brazil is expected to follow, with Lula having a 24 percent approval rating (Datafolha).
First, Bolivia. The second round of elections is on the 19th of this month, with centrist Rodrigo Paz (Christian Democrat) and right-wing candidate Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga running. Twenty years of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) in power will come to an end for two fundamental reasons: the funds for subsidies have run out, and the left has been divided by the stubbornness of Evo Morales, who ruled as president and sought to continue ruling as a former president. The MAS established its hegemony on the back of the gas boom and its international reserves. Today, the coffers are empty.
No amount of propaganda can compensate for the discontent of a farmer who cannot transport his harvest due to a shortage of diesel, or that of a mother who sees the price of basic goods rising, while the government insists that inflation is “under control” (15.5 percent in the first half of the year, according to official data). The fiscal deficit is close to 8 percent of GDP. Foreign debt is growing.
Fuel subsidies, which were a banner of stability, are now a bottomless pit. Gas production is plummeting, and with it, exports to Brazil and Argentina are also declining. The extractivist model no longer finances anything: neither the distribution of money that had sent the government’s popularity skyrocketing, nor the spree of public spending. Adding to the economic failure is Evo Morales’ ambition for power, who wanted to return to power at any cost, in conflict with President Arce—Evo’s former minister—who blames external enemies for what is in reality the collapse of the populist model.
Voters are no longer in the mood for such harangues and excuses. What matters is whether there is sugar, whether there is flour, and whether there is enough money to make ends meet. The left lost because the economy spoke. In that reality, the narrative that once made the MAS the owner of the Bolivians’ popular hope crumbled.
Chile is next. The first round will take place on November 16, and the runoff (the second and final round) will be held on December 14, featuring the leftist candidate, Jeanette Jara; the hard-right candidate, José Antonio Kast; or the right-wing candidate, Evelyn Matthei.
President Gabriel Boric, who has had a brilliant foreign policy, has been unable to cope with domestic problems—notably insecurity—and has played in favor of the Communist Party’s pre-candidate (Jeanette Jara) against Carolina Tohá to be the standard-bearer of the left. Polls indicate that Jara will make it to the runoff, but she would lose to Kast by eight points and be trounced by Mathei (18 points). The explanation offered by renowned Chilean political scientist and academic Alberto Mayol is clear and profound: “The runoff is not just the second round of an election: it is the stage where the silent consensus of the era is displayed. And in this consensus, the country seems to have decided that security is on the right, order is on the right, and the possible government is on the right.”
The LCL researcher points out that there was a time when the word “privileges” burned like fire in the public square. It was the slogan that burned the legitimacy of the elite and paved the way for new political figures. Saying “I do not come from a privileged background” was a direct passport to popular trust. That narrative “has been worn out,” they would say in Mérida. Polls, Mayol documents, indicate that “only 17.7% of citizens consider it important that a candidate does not come from a life of privilege. 82.3% prioritize other attributes. The phrase that once ignited crowds now falls like a wet match.”
He wonders why this narrative is dying. He answers: “Because the context is changing. After years of crisis, the country is no longer obsessed with origin, but with the ability to solve problems. What matters is not where you come from, but whether you can control insecurity, improve health, and guarantee a future for your children.”
In Chilean society, he says, “merit is being reinstated as dogma.” The narrative against “the rich” has worn thin. The survey indicates that 60.5 percent of Chileans believe that becoming rich is the result of merit, having taken advantage of opportunities, being intelligent, or one’s own hard work and efforts. Only 30.2 percent believe that becoming rich is the result of some kind of abuse. (9.3 percent do not know or did not answer).
This year, Bolivia and Chile will say goodbye to the left.
Brazil is next.
Further Reading: