Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
With Nicolás Maduro’s forced removal from Venezuela, a new historical stage begins in the relationship between the United States and Latin America. As Marco Rubio said at the press conference on the same day as the military action in Caracas, “those who did not believe we would act, take note: we did act, and we are serious.”
At the same press conference, Trump announced the new Monroe Doctrine 2.0 toward the Western Hemisphere. He cleared up any doubts: in Venezuela, the United States will “run” the country until a “safe, proper, and judicious transition” of power can be arranged to establish a U.S.-friendly government. He added that the same applies to the rest of Latin America and the Caribbean. The United States makes it clear that it will no longer tolerate the establishment of outposts by countries hostile to it, referring to Russia, China, Iran, and other countries hostile to its interests. In essence, it declares the area to be exclusively under US influence and that there will be a blockade on attempts by hostile forces to influence the internal policies of countries in the region.
In Trump’s conversation with Fox News’ “Fox and Friends” program, several hours before his press conference, he was asked directly whether the action in Venezuela was also intended to send a message to Mexico. In Trumpian language (i.e., difficult to understand), he said no, but essentially said yes; there is a message for Mexico. He put it this way: “The president of Mexico is afraid of the cartels. We have offered to intervene to destroy the drug traffickers, and she always says no, she does not accept our help. But ‘something’s going to have to be done” about the cartels that he claimed were “running Mexico.”
The big question is: what’s next for governance in Venezuela? The internal situation in that country is highly complex. Various armed groups coincide and sometimes clash. First, Venezuela has historically been a refuge for multiple Colombian guerrilla armies. These armed groups have significant firepower and extensive expertise in jungle and mountain combat. They are a danger to any new government in the country. In addition, they have associated themselves with criminal groups.
Second, there are the drug cartels, which have money, weapons, trained columns, contacts with Venezuela’s faltering government, and international commercial operations. On the other hand, there are the National Armed Forces, which run the so-called Cártel de los Soles (named after the stars of the generals involved) and, according to the United States, were led by Maduro.
Cuba has a military and intelligence contingent that, according to Rubio, was the real driving force behind security and politics in Venezuela. Maduro’s personal security was in the hands of this contingent, whose failure to defend Maduro from US troops shatters the myth of the invincibility and professionalism of the Cuban military forces. This is no minor issue, given that Cuba may be the Trump administration’s next target.
The existence of all these armed groups in Venezuela makes the transition process in the country extremely complex. They are the components that could lead Venezuela into a violent and prolonged internal civil war. The guerrillas, drug traffickers, the Soles, the national army, and the Cubans are an explosive factor that the United States cannot ignore when it wants, as Trump said, to achieve the establishment of a democratic and legitimate government. It is precisely for this reason that a negotiated solution with Maduro was sought. Trump himself said that at one point he felt Maduro was about to accept the agreement, but ultimately backed out.
It is because of this complex internal scenario that Trump said at the press conference that María Corina Machado does not currently have the capacity or political strength to tame all these groups and establish a democratic and republican government. He stated an irrefutable truth at this juncture, despite Machado’s social popularity. He acknowledged that the United States is ready for a second wave of attacks against armed groups or even the Venezuelan army itself, if necessary, to subdue all armed groups in the country. Trump even assumed that it would take “time” to achieve the goal of establishing a legitimate and representative government in Venezuela.
For these reasons of realism, a sort of temporary transitional government seems to be taking shape, without knowing how long it will last. It will surely include elements of the current government and the opposition. It will be the product of complex negotiations, including vetoes from both sides. But it is difficult to imagine a change of government without a transitional period, precisely to avoid the emergence of a violent civil war in Venezuela.
Trump said at the press conference that Marco Rubio was in telephone contact with Delcy Rodríguez, the vice president of Maduro’s government. Trump’s statement was precise: “Marco just spoke with her. She will do what we tell her to do.” If so, she will have to rely on the support of a sector of Maduro’s supporters, especially the Venezuelan military, to be a credible factor for transitional stability in Venezuela. For that reason, she is demanding “proof of Maduro’s life” to show her loyalty to Maduro’s factions. But within Maduro’s camp, the hardliners are surely already clashing with the moderates or those in favor of dialogue. The outcome of this strategic confrontation within Maduro’s camp will largely determine whether the situation in Venezuela ends peacefully or violently.
Vladimir Padrino López and Diosdado Cabello are Delcy Rodríguez’s two notable opponents within Maduro’s camp, and their positions on the possible formation of a transitional government remain unknown. However, some elements lead one to believe that the extraction of Maduro and his wife from their fortified and ultra-secret hideout relied on detailed information about their habits and location that was provided by people very close to Maduro. Trump said that they knew their daily habits and had plans for the hideout and how to breach it. That allowed the US military operation to be so successful and clean, with no casualties. So the question is: who betrayed Maduro? What is the cost of their collaboration? Will they be free of accusations or murder charges? The people close to Maduro who had this security information were Padrino and Cabello, not Delcy Rodríguez. And let’s not forget the Cubans.
Trump’s insistence on oil stems from economic interests, but also political ones. He thinks like a businessman, always looking for a profit. But he also wants to be able to tell his social base in the United States that the Venezuelan adventure will not cost them anything, since oil revenues will cover everything. However, it remains to be seen whether this statement is true. Trump campaigned on a promise never to take the United States into a foreign war. His social base is deeply isolationist.
Going beyond Venezuela, a new US policy in Latin America is being announced. This mainly affects two countries: Cuba and Mexico. At the press conference, Rubio explained the failure of the Cuban regime, which he said is led by inept and corrupt senile men (gulp!), and predicted the regime’s imminent collapse. For now, Cuba will have to withdraw all its personnel stationed in Venezuela, a process that has surely already begun. Maduro’s fall heralds a new “Special Period” on the island.
In a morning interview on Fox News, Trump said that the United States has to do “something” strong in Mexico, considering Sheinbaum’s fear of the cartels intolerable. “We will act,” he said. And Rubio’s words echoed in the National Palace: “Those who think we are not going to act are mistaken.”
@rpascoep
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