Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The Mexican Foreign Ministry (SRE) published a document listing the 14 countries with “security personnel” assigned to their embassies in Mexico and registered with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as required by the National Security Law. The SRE explained that the information is classified as confidential for 5 years to avoid affecting “good diplomatic relations” with the countries concerned. Providing more details could inhibit “security and intelligence issues in the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking.” The document opened a window into Mexico’s foreign policy and catapulted analysis of its consequences for Mexico.
The countries registered with the Foreign Ministry are: Austria, Chile, China, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Peru, South Korea, the Dominican Republic, and the United States. In no case is the number of security personnel from each country specified. However, in the case of the U.S., it clarifies that there are “security personnel” representing 13 official agencies. The National Security Law is very clear: each state must comply with the legal framework before the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This is the most recent addition to the National Security Law promoted by López Obrador in 2020 in his eagerness to control the DEA. The law establishes the obligation not only to register security personnel but also to report their specific activities to the SRE.
What is striking about this list is not which countries have complied with the legal obligation. Instead, it is the notable absence of certain countries that did NOT register with the Foreign Ministry and yet are known to have engaged in espionage activities in Mexico. Neither Russia, Cuba, nor Venezuela has registered their agents in Mexico, despite notable public allegations that they operate, or have operated, in our country. Given that the SRE’s list is official and public, it is striking that the Mexican government has not acknowledged or remedied the noted absences.
The publication by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs raises more questions than answers. There are so many unspeakable actions taken by the 4T in foreign policy that it is not a government of honesty and clarity, but one of shades of grey tinged with lies and misleading words. A recent consequence of this handling of foreign policy has seriously undermined the president’s reputation. Sheinbaum’s offer that Mexico could host negotiations for “peace” between Venezuela and the United States has been wholly ignored, 24 hours after it was made. This is how discredited Mexico’s word and credibility have become in the eyes of the world. The humiliation is recorded, even though the government tries to hide it.
Mexico has refused to be transparent about its real policy toward Venezuela, which is one of total support for Maduro, along with the electoral fraud. But since the rest of the world already knows this, Mexico’s shameful behavior simply further discredits the country. If the SRE publishes a list that hides and protects Russian, Cuban, and Venezuelan spies in Mexico, while forcing other countries to be transparent, what do you think the world thinks of our government? In this context of isolation, snubbing, and mistrust toward Mexico, what can be expected from the upcoming USMCA negotiations with the United States and Canada? And what will be the repercussions for Mexico when the Venezuelan dictatorship falls and, as a consequence, the Cuban one? Mexico’s isolation, owing to geopolitical reality, weakens its negotiating capacity. It now appears that Sheinbaum’s future is in Trump’s hands more than Obrador’s.
The presence of Russian spies in Mexico has been widely discussed in public hearings in the U.S. Senate. Reports from Northern Command and intelligence agencies indicate that Russia has what could be its most extensive intelligence base outside its territory in Mexico. Juan González, a former advisor to President Biden on Latin American affairs, reportedly gave López Obrador a list of all Russian agents in Mexico. Still, the Mexican president chose to ignore the information. What’s more, the Mexican president apparently gave the Russians the names of US agents in Mexico, “so that everyone is aware,” he reportedly said.
The case of Cuba is equally striking. Cuba is also not on the list, yet it maintains a large corps of security agents in Mexico. They are engaged in spying on the activities of the embassies of the United States, Canada, and some Central American countries. Another important activity of these security agents is to prevent Cuban doctors, nurses, teachers, and workers hired by the Mexican government from fleeing to the United States. Any escape is immediately reported to Havana so that the fugitive’s relatives pay the price for betraying the Revolution.
Mexico is a free territory for friends of the Bolivarian movement in Latin America. The remnants of Evo Morales’ movement in Bolivia live and operate in Mexico, as do the relatives of former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo, the survivors of Rafael Correa’s presidency in Ecuador and his entourage, and, soon, what will remain of the movement of Xiomara Castro, the defeated former president of Honduras, and her supporters. It would not be surprising if Nicolás Maduro and some of his relatives and associates appeared as refugees in Mexico for “humanitarian” reasons.
Intelligence operatives from Venezuela and Iran have carried out operations in Mexico. The most talked-about was the arrival of the Iranian plane, operated by the Venezuelan company Emtrasur, which landed in Querétaro on June 4, 2022, and departed the next day after loading “spare parts,” without showing any documentation. Among the personnel on board were Venezuelan security personnel and members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The López Obrador administration never issued a warning about the flight or raised any alarms despite suspicions about the case. It appeared to be a case of complicity in the face of international accusations of criminal association and terrorism.
The most shocking aspect of Mexico’s permissiveness toward espionage activities by Russians, Cubans, and Venezuelans is that Morena is gradually becoming isolated internationally. This isolation places Sheinbaum’s government in a position of political weakness in its ongoing negotiations with the Obradorista wing of its movement. But it also places it in a weak position vis-à-vis the United States, given the progressive disappearance of socialist governments in Latin America. Honduras is the most recent blow, where Sheinbaum played strong cards to ensure the Bolivarians would win. They ended up in a distant third place.
The international context works against Sheinbaum, and the domestic situation does not help her. Her limited room for maneuver reduces her political options. If she remains the last standard-bearer of Bolivarian socialism in Latin America, her chances of securing a good outcome in the USMCA negotiations will be drastically reduced, which will negatively impact Mexico’s overall economic environment. And the current economic situation is much more precarious than the recent flood of “good news” from INEGI would suggest.
If Sheinbaum seeks a functional rapprochement, in every sense of the word, with her North American partners, she will incur the wrath of Obradorism, which is undergoing radicalization. This scenario will place her in a situation of internal ungovernability, even in the face of the specter of midterm elections, where a possible setback for Morena will be the sole responsibility of the president in office. The document published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs unwittingly exposed the Sheinbaum administration. It laid bare all the factors contributing to the Mexican government’s crisis, including its growing isolation, the trap of its ideological creed, and the multiple internal and international crises it faces.
Espionage has its consequences.
@rpascoep
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