Mexico, Opinions Worth Sharing

AMLO is running for reelection

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Ricardo Pascoe Pierce

Tomorrow, February 5, AMLO will present his government plan to ensure his reelection. He will present his vision of the Mexico he wants to govern. He wants a country where the Executive is all-powerful and not subject to questioning, institutional obstacles, or transparency in his path to execute his plan fully.

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It will not hinder him that his party has nominated a female presidential candidate. This will not hinder him from continuing to hold full political power. That candidacy will depend on him and his magnificence to continue holding, or not, the office of President.

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We all know López Obrador. When he swears he will never do something, he says it because that is his way of affirming that he will do it. When he says he will return the military to their barracks, he is saying it because he does not want to do it. When he announces that it is forbidden to prohibit, it is because he plans to ban many things. When he affirms that his government will tolerate all expressions and opinions, he says so because he does not intend to tolerate any dissident expression.

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More to the point of this text, when he says that he will leave politics at the end of his administration and will no longer give his opinion on public affairs, he says it because he intends to do exactly the opposite. Not only does he plan to remain active in politics, but he aspires to continue governing the country. If Bukele can be reelected despite the express prohibition in his country’s Constitution, why can’t Andrés Manuel López Obrador do the same?

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What he will present on February 5 is his vision for the country and an instruction to his candidate about what she should think and say and how. It will deal with the integration of the essential structure of the Mexican State, the Judicial Power, the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation and the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judicial Power, the nature of the National Guard and the Army, pensions, the need to eliminate the autonomous bodies, including the National Electoral Institute (INE), the country’s energy model, the ad infinitum financing of his works, among other things.

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The presentation of February 5 is, de facto, a new and radical model of the country’s Constitution proposed by López Obrador. And he proposes it as the veiled and secret candidate he is. He imposes it on his candidate, on his party, and wants to impose it on the country. This is the behavior not of an outgoing President but of one who aspires to the office.

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In the case of López Obrador, his February proposal is the way he has found to promote his reelection. Even the proposal has an additional resource, which requires a qualified majority in Congress. That qualified majority he had and did not know what to do with it. Now, he does. And he wants it not only to promote the measures he proposes. He wants the qualified majority to achieve his reelection.

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It could be a reelection similar to the one he did in Iztapalapa with Juanito and Clara Brugada. That is to say, eventually promote Claudia’s resignation and take her place, with the endorsement of the Congress. To do so, Lopez Obrador could be the Secretary of the Interior in Claudia’s shaky government. Another option would be to wait for the Constitution to be changed and, thus, allow him to be reelected in 2030.

Image: Cuartoscuro on elfinanciero.com.mx

But his anxiety will not allow him to wait that long. He will need to retake the reins of power sooner. The success of his maneuver will depend, however, on several factors. First, on whether his candidate will win the election in 2024. Second, whether society is in a real mood for such a tribulation. Thirdly, if the internal and external factual powers allow it. And, lastly, if his health will be good enough for such a major destruction of the Republic.

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Do not doubt it: whatever happens, February 5 is the beginning of Lopez Obrador’s reelection campaign.

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@rpascoep

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