Four years ago today, we published an essay titled “Mexico Does not Need a New Leader but a New System”. https://sepgra.com/mexico-does-not-need-a-new-leader-it-needs-a-new-system/ It is by far the most read piece of all the 2219 published so far. It made sense; we anticipated part of what would happen to Mexico’s political system and its institutions. Sadly, we were right, even if we underestimated the extent of the damage.
The first paragraph announced the danger:
“Let’s begin at the end: Mexico is in the process of destroying institutions to ensure that those in power stay forever; it is not, as they claim, the beginning of a new era but the coming to an end of a political system that allowed the country to live with relative calm but unequal prosperity for a century. Yet, the system was no longer functional. It went from a self-dealing ruling class to a corrupt technocracy, to a mediocre kleptocracy (a government whose corrupt leaders use political power to create and expand their fortunes), to a dishonest kakistocracy (a system of government that is run by the worst, least qualified, or most unscrupulous citizens) headed by a zealot and ignorant leader intellectually disabled.”
It was clear that the gang in power didn’t have the slightest idea how to govern or what to do, except to establish a system that handed out cash in exchange for votes.
“Far from the obscure and pompous denomination that pretends to mark the beginning of a new era in history, the so-called “Fourth Transformation” (4T) is nothing more than the systematic and rabid destruction of institutions without any plan or model, not even a rough idea of what to do to achieve the nebulous objectives derived from campaign slogans, varnished with ideological fixations typical of adolescence.”
It was also clear that the opposition parties had been degraded and were in a process of destroying themselves.
“Political parties became franchises controlled by gangs that divided the spoils of public office among themselves for their benefit through contracts, concessions, licenses, exemptions, waivers, condonations, appointments to key positions, nominations to legislative offices, amendments to laws and regulations, dismissals of criminal investigations, and many other improper and illegal benefits such as granting undeserved honors that favored them or their close associates. This was increasingly public and notorious, degrading the image of public officials, politicians, and their parties in the eyes of the electorate. According to Transparency International, 91% of Mexicans perceive that political parties are corrupt institutions.”
No wonder the majority of voters fell into the trap.
“As a result of it, and in the face of the growing dissatisfaction with the precarious economic situation and the insecurity in which the majority of the population lives, the citizens rejected them at the polls, electing Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who, apparently, represented the opposite: a shrewd man who knew how to make people believe he was an honest democrat, with no strings attached to those who controlled the enormous corruption apparatus, whom he denounced and attacked in every speech, promising to do away with them and with corruption, which he blamed for the generalized poverty throughout the country.”
Since then, it was clear that things were not going in the right direction, and, to add insult to injury, there was an evident association with organized crime.
“The result of the experiment is quite expensive. Once in power, a megalomaniac caudillo emerged, resentful, ignorant, factious, and intellectually challenged, incapable of discerning anything that was not part of his gospel, who swept away professionals in public service and experts in their fields, and replaced them with loyalists of his tribe in positions for which they are not qualified, except for their allegiance to the gang leader. Hence, after more than three years, poverty and extreme poverty have expanded, insecurity is more violent and spread geographically throughout the national territory, and organized crime is tolerated and now governs parts of the country. Those previously accused of corruption are now his allies and beneficiaries of his favors, protection, and cover-up, and rampant corruption is worse than ever.”
The disregard for the rule of law and for the economic common sense of public projects was evident from the start, as he destroyed a major international hub to replace it with a cargo airport at a military base in the middle of nowhere.
“Institutional destruction advances despite the precarious defense of opponents, who point out that there is a big difference between modernizing institutions that need an upgrade and destroying them. The stubbornness in squandering resources on unnecessary and costly projects weakens institutions and programs, which are essential to the less privileged.
“On top of it, there is a total disrespect for the rule of law. AMLO frequently states that if he must decide between justice and the law, justice should prevail. Except that he determines what is just. The law only applies when he so chooses. Recently, when the Energy Reform submitted by his government was debated in Congress, he stated: “Don’t come to tell me that the law is the law”. He considers that he is above it. Sounds like the definition of tyranny.”
Far from public investment in infrastructure to foster economic development, the funds created for that purpose were squandered on capricious and stupid projects, with no accountability shielded for “National Security Reasons,” whose only beneficiaries were the companies favored with their contracts, casually, with links to the caudillo’s family.
“In any civilized country, campaign slogans are translated into public policies and government programs composed of specific projects, duly budgeted and scheduled with clearly defined objectives. Their results are measurable and can be evaluated. The State must create the necessary conditions to attract productive investment. None of this happens in the 4T”.
… This is the drama of massive spending on social programs: it generates economic activity that is limited in impact and duration, and far from lifting anyone out of poverty, it only prolongs it indefinitely until, due to the absence of investment, the economy is exhausted, and tax collection is no longer enough to cover the social programs. But, yes, they are very effective in buying votes.
The coda of that post is more critical today than it was four years ago:
“Yes, Mexico needs a new system badly.
To defend the rights of citizens to be governed by the best and most qualified to do so.
To save the country from backwardness and imminent economic bankruptcy.
To have a congress that is respected as what it should be: another power of the union.
To avoid changes to the constitution aimed at maintaining indefinitely in power a group of incapable, rapacious people who feel enlightened and are above the law and the institutions.
To prevent organized crime, both white-collar and machine-gun criminals from continuing to rule over those who should fight it.
To avoid that, due to the clumsiness in the management of the government and the lukewarmness in the use of public force to impose order and ensure respect for the law, our neighbor is forced to intervene to do what ours did not want or could not do, putting at risk and causing damage in its territory, with the ethically valid argument of safeguarding lives and properties of its citizens.
To not allow our incipient democracy to be transformed into a tyranny headed by a man who has an intellectual disability.
To prevent the majority from being hidden from reality with a triumphalist narrative, eventually turning into a tragedy.”
So here we are, without a national project, with no independent judiciary, colonized electoral institutions, indicted public officials protected by the State, degraded educational and health systems, public spending funded increasingly with debt, contentious rivalry with our neighbor and most important trade partner, dreaming of nearshoring while doing everything to prevent been attractive to foreign investment, a government pretending to rule trhough morning press conferences limited to friendly reporters from fake media where the most popular word is sovereignty, even though its meaning is manipulated depending on the ocassion, and organized crime controlling a sizable part of the territory, on the verge of a tragedy that could have been prevented.
SEPGRA Political Analysis Group.
Further Reading: