Ricardo Pascoe Pierce
The U.S. indictment against Rubén Rocha, the governor of Sinaloa on leave, explains how he won the 2021 election:
“In early 2021…Rubén Rocha was campaigning to become governor… he met with cartel leaders, including Iván and Ovidio,… who assured him that Rocha would win the gubernatorial election. In exchange, Rocha promised… he would ensure that officials favorable to the Chapitos’ drug trafficking operations would be placed in positions of authority within the government.”
“Before the election,… a list of Rocha’s opponents and their respective addresses was handed over to the Chapitos… so that the Chapitos could intimidate those opponents and force them to withdraw from the race.”
“…on election day, hitmen stole ballots and ballot boxes…kidnapped Rocha’s opponents and intimidated them into withdrawing from the race. The State Police had been instructed not to approach polling stations…despite receiving reports of criminal activities, such as pressure to vote for certain candidates or the theft of ballot boxes.”
“After the election, at a meeting, Rocha…assured that the Chapitos would have control of the State Police…”.
Both the former president and the current president have supported Rocha during his tenure as governor through multiple gestures: constant visits to Sinaloa, López Obrador’s son extending his membership card to him as a member of Morena, and the president has praised him beyond what is necessary. That significant support carried a message: the method is validated as a way to win elections and govern.
This is how Morena has managed to win elections in Sinaloa and in many other states of the Republic. And this is how Morena planned to continue winning the 2027 elections until recently. The method was endorsed by the then-President of the Republic, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
The method became an open secret because it allowed each Morena candidate to make “their own” deal with local cartels or criminal gangs. These negotiations and agreements gradually became part of the culture within Morena. This is how many people became newly wealthy in record time, under the shadow of Morena governments. And this is how the drug cartels’ territorial power grew throughout the country. It is a symbiotic and dialectical relationship.
The question is whether Morena can continue to win elections under new conditions, now that the modus operandi that the Morena Congress planned to approve this Sunday (today) is publicly known.
Morena’s first emergency response to the crisis sparked by the charges against Rubén Rocha is to forge ahead. Morena is the most vocal accuser of “drug traffickers in its ranks.” Its Congress approves “anti-drug” measures in statutes and internal regulations. It will profess a return to the creed of “do not lie, do not steal, do not betray.” The mea culpa will surface. “Not one more!” will be shouted. “It is an honor to be with Obrador!”
After this public atonement—legally and politically necessary to face any new charges from U.S. courts—Morena will return to its original task set for this party congress: preparing the conditions to prevail in the 2027 elections. The mission is to win more governorships and secure a qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies.
But the possibility of winning elections with its “traditional” method of allying with organized crime is no longer clear when everyone, literally, will have a magnifying glass focused on the conduct of Sheinbaum’s government and her party. In fact, these revelations cast doubt on the legitimacy of the president’s own electoral victory.
How will Morena be able to operate under these new conditions, imposed by the U.S. indictment? If it loses the current number of governorships it holds and the number of federal deputies, that defeat will be seen as confirmation that the Fourth Transformation’s failure is advancing. The myth of its invincibility is shattered, creating new objective and subjective conditions for the 2030 presidential elections.
Morena believes it is obligated to win in 2027. But given its shattered moral authority and with its electoral strategy under severe scrutiny, the question arises: Can Morena win the election without the support of drug cartels?
@rpascoep