Federico Reyes Heroles
“This is just the beginning of what’s to come,” said the DEA director. The U.S. Secretary of Defense demanded that the Mexican government take more action, “so that we don’t have to do it.” Topic: Rocha Moya and his gang. For her part, the President, in her frantic search for solutions, points to Lorenzo Córdova and the National Electoral Institute (INE) as negligent or complicit. Why didn’t they report it in 2021 and let the elections run their course? Conclusion: there was nothing. Lorenzo and Edmundo Jacobo clarify this with Aristegui; the story is more complex and… very clear.
The INE’s mission is to organize elections; it is not an investigative body. It has the SIJE—the Election Day Information System—which records all incident types. Since 2015, irregularities have been detected in the Morelos election. Organized crime’s strategy was to co-opt or extort elected officials. This is how they controlled specific poppy-producing areas or key highways for trafficking. In 2018, there were new incidents of dirty money lost in the populist orgy. Carlos Loret’s August 2020 report about the envelopes received by Pío López Obrador for the “movement” is part of the plot. Reaction: persecute the journalist. Denial once again. In 2021, the drug cartels changed their strategy. There was something more effective than extorting government officials: taking over the system and imposing their own. They set up an electoral engineering apparatus. The northern part of the state—an area that was raising alarms—was neglected, and human resources were diverted to the south, which did not appear to be at risk. They infiltrated the organization; one sign of this is that the stolen ballot packages belonged to the gubernatorial election. They knew they were going to lose. The disappearance of campaign operatives and the use of dirty money were documented and known in advance. The loser conceded defeat, prioritizing the release of his operatives rather than contesting the results—open extortion.
Mexico’s west coast has changed its face. Baja California Sur is another example. The Special Prosecutor’s Office for Electoral Crimes was dormant under a lawyer who was more of a Morenista than a lawyer. Cases shelved by design. Nothing new—the Villanueva case in Quintana Roo is there. In 2024, the “narco-president” slogan appeared right in the Zócalo. There were many signs.
“It’s only the beginning…” corresponds to a narrative our neighbor has documented for decades. But Sheinbaum cannot conceive of herself as head of state. “Let whoever falls, fall”—it’s said quickly and sounds good. But she covers for the first person singled out. She talks about interventionism and chokes on false sovereignty. There will be many, and with Morena holding the majority, most will come from there. “It’s just the beginning…” and the best defense Sheinbaum can offer for Mexico is to show that she stands on the side of the law.
Many did not understand the President’s high approval rating. The collapse has arrived. Mexico Elige reports: approval rating, 44.5%; hypothetical recall, 51.3% would vote for her resignation; corruption in her government, 72.5% believe it exists; autonomy of the Supreme Court, 28.8%; economy, has worsened, 55.8%; democracy at risk, 63%; medicine shortages, 64.7% say yes; prices “have risen a lot,” 60.1%; extortion, “is not being fought,” 53.3%; “questioning the government is treason,” 84.7% say no; cooperation with the U.S. government is necessary, 64.3%; trust in deputies and senators, 26.8% and 30.8%, respectively.
Lorena Becerra, Polls and Opinion: “On the wrong path,” 47%; “things are getting out of control,” 68%; approval rating, March 80%, May 59%, down 21 points; “…are there more or fewer ties to organized crime within Morena?”, more, 42%; “…true or false that other Morena politicians receive or have received money from organized crime…”, true, 63%; Rocha Moya, “actual case of ties to organized crime”, 60%.
Hopefully, cornered as she is, she’ll make the right decision: take a stand, break free. Or can’t she?
“It’s only the beginning…”
Further Reading: