Eurasia Group Top Risks 2026

The year 2026 marks significant geopolitical instability, driven by an unpredictable U.S. political shift and ongoing global conflicts. While some nations, like China and India, bolster their positions, Europe faces heightened challenges. An AI revolution is also underway, complicating governance. The global landscape is turbulent, with lasting implications for future generations.

Neither Less Poverty, Nor Less Violence.

The National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEGI) reported optimistic economic data for Mexico, claiming job growth and reduced crime. However, real incomes are declining, and most workers are in the informal sector, leading to increased poverty. The government’s statistics misrepresent the harsh realities facing many citizens, particularly regarding violence and economic hardship.

Exploring the Risks of Fragmentation in Mexican Politics.

Opposition parties in Mexico, namely PAN, PRI, and MC, intend to run separately in the 2027 elections, believing individual strategies will attract voters disillusioned by Morena’s governance. They anticipate a collapsing economy and internal strife within Morena to bolster their positions. However, a call for unity amidst complexity in reconstruction is emphasized.

My Readings in 2025.

In times of upheaval, many books emerge addressing significant geopolitical and historical themes. Noteworthy titles include Hal Brands’ exploration of Eurasian geopolitics and Claudio Lomnitz’s analysis of Mexico’s dual realities. Robert Kaplan’s pessimistic insights mirror the Weimar Republic, highlighting the fragility of democracy, while Timothy W. Ryback details Hitler’s rise without popular support.

U.S. National Security Strategy.

This official report of the United States Government outlines the priorities of the Trump administration concerning foreign policy, revealing a shift in its geopolitical strategy and values.

How Digital Mercenaries Manipulate Elections.

In 2023, journalists uncovered “Team Jorge,” an Israeli company manipulating elections worldwide, claiming to have influenced 33 elections. Led by Tal Hanan, the firm employed a vast network of digital avatars for disinformation. The investigation revealed the persistent threat of digital manipulation, highlighting the evolving landscape of political influence.

Goodbye Socioeconomic Mobility, Goodbye.

Jesús Reyes Heroles, born in 1921, whose home had no books, left Tuxpan to find a secondary school. He went to Tampico, where he found one. A good student and obsessive reader, he had to migrate again to San Luis Potosí in search of a high school. Later, in Mexico city, he entered law school, living in a horrible place. Determined to move forward, he obtained a scholarship in Buenos Aires and embarked on his postgraduate studies. In the past, the possibility of broadening one’s life spectrum through education and economic growth existed. No more.

Luis Maizel’s Monthly Letter: The United States Is Becoming Increasingly Polarized.

The political climate in the U.S. is increasingly polarized, with extreme leftist and rightist ideologies dominating. Economic indicators show stability, despite rising layoffs and inflation. In Mexico, business sentiment is low amid government unrest. Globally, economic growth varies, with advancements in AI and challenges in countries like China and Japan.

Honduras Elections: Trump vs. Sheinbaum Confrontation Explained.

Honduras’ presidential elections have turned into a proxy battle between Claudia Sheinbaum and Donald Trump, reminiscent of Cold War dynamics. Xiomara Castro’s swift visit to Mexico before the elections highlighted ideological ties within a socialist bloc, while Trump pressured voters to reject Castro’s party, emphasizing economic issues and immigration policies.

The Economics of Attention.

The essay discusses the evolution of attention economy from the invention of the bikini by Louis Réard in 1946 to the digital revolution. Yanis Varoufakis argues that society has shifted from tangible goods to a system where attention is commodified, creating techno-feudalism. Users, now products, face a challenge in reclaiming focus amidst constant distraction.

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